Kentucky derby early thoughts

[boys at tosconova]

2- justifiable homicide

bang, bang....horse will have his share of critics. i can't argue that. horse has only 3 races which is less than ideal. the slow SA strip makes it seem even less impressive to some. i can see why he'll have detractors, much like mendy,. even with him beating bolt by open lengths people found a way to critize him. and outside of bolt he hasn't beaten anything.

how slow is the SA strip in away we can quantify it?. i really dont know and i really wonder if it's even possible to gage it vs the other tracks. i really don't follow any speed figs so that won't do much for me rationalizing it.

i guess you just have to have faith that the times are even faster than posted because if it, and it's prolly already known that it is to some extent.

i don't want to pay much attention to works so that will solve the question either. but bolt a top 3 horse before the SA derby and justy said see ya to him.

horse doesn't seem sexy to use as a favorite imo, and non sexy once again as a low odd horse. but he should be on your ticket in some way shape or form if you're trying to win and not goofing off trying to get a $1k exacta home

[boys at tosconova]

i just keep looking at magnum moon and i wondering how good he might be.

i'm starting to lean to him as a must use. i wonder what kind of odds you might get..and if he'll be third choice to win and exotics,,

oh fk me till i'm dead........change my screenname to chalk day at tosconova..but hey..i still have audible as #1 so that's saying something... but it's prolly saying that he won't win..............zingo

[Gerard02]

All in all, you just can’t count out the winners of the big 5 Prep races. Whether or not SA Derby was slow, you have to factor in Justify. It would be a huge risk to throw him out, along with Audible, Vino, and Magnum. Magnum has a drifting problem. That might correct itself in the Derby, but these horses won their big Prep races and must be respected in the wagering. Something I saw in Mendelssohns race bothered me. Still, I will consider him in my exotics. I have seven horses that I will definitely box in a super. A couple will be wheeled with those seven.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i just keep looking at magnum moon and i wondering how good he might be.

i'm starting to lean to him as a must use. i wonder what kind of odds you might get..and if he'll be third choice to win and exotics,,

oh fk me till i'm dead........change my screenname to chalk day at tosconova..but hey..i still have audible as #1 so that's saying something... but it's prolly saying that he won't win..............zingo

No one is really talking about him, unless it is to detract from him. Unlike the other two undefeateds-at-3, he doesn't have that Storm Cat cloud hanging over his head. All he does is win, and run just fast enough to beat whatever field that he was given. And if you are following recent trends, undefeated at 3 has been the way to go ever since the new points system was implemented. Short sample, but currently more consistent than anything else so far. Well, that is the way I am going - Magnum Moon over a deep closer or three. And maybe a trifecta, but that is another story.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Gerard02

Something I saw in Mendelssohns race bothered me.

If he had won by open lengths before, I would consider him. But that last race just stands out too much. Bias or not, I think he already peaked and ran his Derby.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

No one is really talking about him, unless it is to detract from him. Unlike the other two undefeateds-at-3, he doesn't have that Storm Cat cloud hanging over his head. All he does is win, and run just fast enough to beat whatever field that he was given. And if you are following recent trends, undefeated at 3 has been the way to go ever since the new points system was implemented. Short sample, but currently more consistent than anything else so far. Well, that is the way I am going - Magnum Moon over a deep closer or three. And maybe a trifecta, but that is another story.

i won't win if a deep closer or another horse outside my top 8 hits the board for the most part.. i think the deep closers are all 2nd rate. my boy jack will take a ton of money as well. and i admit his move is extremely powerful and visual enough for anybody to play him

this is the frst year i feel pretty confident that the top 3 will be in my top and eight horses...as for supers, well, capping the fourth horse almost never works out like you think in any race. but i feel pretty confident the fourth horse will come from my group of eight as well.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i won't win if a deep closer or another horse outside my top 8 hits the board for the most part.. i think the deep closers are all 2nd rate. my boy jack will take a ton of money as well. and i admit his move is extremely powerful and visual enough for anybody to play him

this is the frst year i feel pretty confident that the top 3 will be in my top and eight horses...as for supers, well, capping the fourth horse almost never works out like you think in any race. but i feel pretty confident the fourth horse will come from my group of eight as well.

You have 8? I have 9. I wonder if we have the same contenders. I'm going only as deep as the Trifecta since I used a specific stat as a filter that eliminates contenders that will not, for the most part, finish in the top-3 spots.

I will punch out twenty $1 Super quick-picks.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

You have 8? I have 9. I wonder if we have the same contenders. I'm going only as deep as the Trifecta since I used a specific stat as a filter that eliminates contenders that will not, for the most part, finish in the top-3 spots.

I will punch out twenty $1 Super quick-picks.

i feel more comfortable@ 12..at least for the show position..so that's 4 mo on the end.....lol

i still think justy and audible will be my main keys for the most part. putting each for the win and for 2nd/ 3rd.

don;t see many lngshots..maybe i might have some solomini and flameaway in some form

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i feel more comfortable@ 12..at least for the show position..so that's 4 mo on the end.....lol

i still think justy and audible will be my main keys for the most part. putting each for the win and for 2nd/ 3rd.

don;t see many lngshots..maybe i might have some solomini and flameaway in some form

Maybe it was a bad idea to take out the pure sprinters. It's because of them we had exploding toteboards. Now we are stuck with "quality speed" that hangs on for longer than 6 panels.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Gerard02

Something I saw in Mendelssohns race bothered me.

and this is a secret, or you are going to tell us what that was?

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Maybe it was a bad idea to take out the pure sprinters. It's because of them we had exploding toteboards. Now we are stuck with "quality speed" that hangs on for longer than 6 panels.

yeah,..it does seems less exciting and more more predictable for the most part now.

it's the derby, so you'll still get pretty decent prices on the favs for the most part since the pools are so big and many people think races are wide open and play longshots

even if i have to 8 horses there will be a few left off that could hurt me on the bottom end, and it's not like 8 horses is any small amount.

i really can't trip key one horse to win w/ 7 undreneath without spending more than i wanted. so like most trips i bet to save money i'll have to have the winner and a key horse that has to finish 2/3rd..

[DGroundhog]

I'm torn on how to play it. A couple months back I planned on tossing the top 2-3 picks and work a 5 or 6 horse EXB with the next group I liked. That still seems like a decent option given most people think there are 7 or 8 horses with a good shot to win..

However, Justify showed up and has really impressed me. Mendelssohn is the other horse I would focus on putting on top of potential EXA and TRI tickets.

Sure, I could play both tactics and hope one of my two strategies hits, and maybe the Derby is a good place to use that strategy, but I don't like betting against myself with competing tickets.

Seems like evaluating all the races and going with my opinion on the best horses is smarter than just tossing out the top picks and using a 'best of the rest' strategy.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by DGroundhog

I'm torn on how to play it. A couple months back I planned on tossing the top 2-3 picks and work a 5 or 6 horse EXB with the next group I liked. That still seems like a decent option given most people think there are 7 or 8 horses with a good shot to win..

However, Justify showed up and has really impressed me. Mendelssohn is the other horse I would focus on putting on top of potential EXA and TRI tickets.

Sure, I could play both tactics and hope one of my two strategies hits, and maybe the Derby is a good place to use that strategy, but I don't like betting against myself with competing tickets.

Seems like evaluating all the races and going with my opinion on the best horses is smarter than just tossing out the top picks and using a 'best of the rest' strategy.

Stick to your guns! Are you here to make pennies or are you here to make dollars?

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by Gerard02

All in all, you just can’t count out the winners of the big 5 Prep races. Whether or not SA Derby was slow, you have to factor in Justify. It would be a huge risk to throw him out, along with Audible, Vino, and Magnum. Magnum has a drifting problem. That might correct itself in the Derby, but these horses won their big Prep races and must be respected in the wagering. Something I saw in Mendelssohns race bothered me. Still, I will consider him in my exotics. I have seven horses that I will definitely box in a super. A couple will be wheeled with those seven.

7 horse box $840. I will be spending spending somewhere around that amount also. Probably 5-6 on top with more in the minor slots

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Afleet

7 horse box $840. I will be spending spending somewhere around that amount also. Probably 5-6 on top with more in the minor slots

a 7 horse box is not in my future for triples. out of my top eight only 5 should be likely winner imo. i will prolly play only seriously play 2 of them on top. i can always key 7 underneath them and it won't set me back much. or i can find that second key horse for 2nd/3rd and save even more money