Is EARLY the majority running style...?

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by coachv30

That could be a time to look for a class move..maybe one of them is off a class drop or has better back class.

This is a good point as one example of why these hypotheses seem odd and not useful.

Just because there are, say 4 of 7 'SPEED' horses in a race doesn't mean all such SPEED is created equal for today's race.

[jay68802]

Young horses can change running styles, esp when moving up in class. The two horses that have so far shown the want or need to be on the lead are Savagery and Much Better. In this case they are eliminated. The next two eliminations are Sueno and Easy Shot, that is based on speed figures. Yes, young horses can improve, but going with the %'s here. That leaves Gunmetal Gray, Coliseum, and Gray Magician. The advantage goes to Coliseum, because he has not yet shown the ability to loose a race. IMO, he will not go to the lead, and change running styles, sit off the pace and be the best in the stretch.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

I gotta admit, this is a strange endeavor to me. Singling out the frequency within a race of the BRIS-conceived running style designations just doesn't seem like it would inform anything.

I'm not sure it will amount to anything either. Really, I just wanted to see if anyone had ever tested it. Dave said he had and that Hypothesis 1 was incorrect.

Accepting this, I thought the converse, Hypothesis 2, must be correct, since the two hypotheses appear to be seperable into a dialectic fairly easily, ie, either the winner being from the majority running style block OR from the running styles that combined make up the minority block.

Dave hasn't replied to say that Hypothesis 2 is incorrect also, yet, though that may prove to be the case again.

As with many of my ideas, they are not totally thought through so I can understand the unease...I like to see where things go and others make contributions that may tweak the direction of the idea development...

[Buckeye]

Originally Posted by Tom

Sartin and the Hat distanced themselves from it.
Pizzola emphasized it heavily in his Master Magician.

He included The Fulcrum Pace as part of the program and one of the factors leading to value selections (The Master Magician program very closely mirrors Handicapping Magic the book) but I'd disagree he heavily emphasized it.

[Buckeye]

Originally Posted by headhawg

I liked the idea of the fulcrum, but didn't Pizzolla himself pooh-pooh the concept after it didn't work as well as he thought?

Not that I know about headhawg.

He did come up with Black Magic though, which is basically a redux of the book Handicapping Magic and the program Handicapping Magician.

[Buckeye]

Originally Posted by Tom

Sartin and the Hat distanced themselves from it.
Pizzola emphasized it heavily in his Master Magician.

My bad Tom, sometimes I don't read so good.

I don't know anything about the Master Magician, I was referring to the Handicapping Magician.