Stock Market Prediction

[nik21precious]

Thank you so much.

[nik21precious]

Regular trading hours for the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) are Monday to Friday with an opening time of 9:30 a.m. and a closing time of 4:00 p.m. Each day it is open, It is important to also note that some U.S. holidays may affect trading on the TSX for equities traded in U.S. dollars.

Note that when a holiday falls on the weekend Saturday or Sunday, the stock markets will be closed the next calendar Monday in lieu of the weekend holiday.

Here you will find the TSX holidays 2017 calendar

[_______]

While I am raising cash (mostly be exiting an overweight in Energy stocks), I did buy CVS today @79.50.

It sold off after losing the TRIAD contract to Walgreens/Boots Alliance and now trades at what I perceive as a fair value for a company still growing earnings at a double digit rate.

I started December with less than 5% cash and will exit with closer to 20% so it's not like I hate this market. But I do expect to see better prices when Trump hasn't solved all the economic problems we face in his first week.

I'm not a trader. I hold all my positions at least a year (average is 42 months and I have some that are 30 years old). I've been watching CVS since it fell in the 3Q and just decided it's unlikely to drop all that much further in any pullback and would open a position now.

[upthecreek]

So called experts said the Dow was going to tank under Trump Wall Street hates him , businesses dont like him etc blah, blah,blah They predicted the DJI would drop a 1000 points Wednesday after the election Its up nearly 2000 since

[upthecreek]

Stocks that are moving Dow

[highnote]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

So called experts said the Dow was going to tank under Trump Wall Street hates him , businesses dont like him etc blah, blah,blah They predicted the DJI would drop a 1000 points Wednesday after the election Its up nearly 2000 since

Back on July 13, 2016 I predicted here on PA that the market had the potential to rise up to 15% by January 15, 2017 because a big momentum indicator was triggered.

I consider the political climate as I invest, but I also look at the facts. I leave it to others to give credit or place the blame for the economy on president.

Here are the facts:

When George Bush, Jr. took office the DOW was at 10495. 6 months later it had fallen to 7591.

7.5 years later, at the end of Bush's presidency, the DOW had fallen to 8000 just as Obama was about to take office.

Under Bush, investors lost more than 20%.

Then over the next 8 years the DOW, under the Obama administration, rose to 19912 -- about a 12,000 point rise.

Under Obama investors gained about 250%.

Under Trump, the DOW is up about 200 points. That's about a 1% gain. That's a good return if you can do it every week.

If Trump can stick around long enough to do two terms, it seems very unlikely that we'll see another 250% gain. That would put the DOW at 50,000.

A 4% gain per year would be a more reasonable target. That would put the DOW in the range of 26,000 at the end of the next 8 years.

However, that could all change if there is some huge financial crisis or a war.

Trump is smart. We'll find out if his business savvy can translate into savvy broad economic policy.

[lamboguy]

i think the above poster's 50k target is very realistic because of his great reasoning.

for me it looks like the dollar will weaken and help make it to that number.

Trumps way of doing things is very unpredictable, if you can predict it you can score with the s+p and dow.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i think the above poster's 50k target is very realistic because of his great reasoning.

for me it looks like the dollar will weaken and help make it to that number.

Trumps way of doing things is very unpredictable, if you can predict it you can score with the s+p and dow.

If the DOW makes 50k over the next 8 years there will be a lot of happy CEOs.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by highnote

Under Obama investors gained about 250%.

Yeah, they all bought in at the low...

Funny stuff...they MADE BACK their losses and THEN made some money (this didn't start happening until 2013 by the way)...most of them, anyway...those that didn't bail in a panic back in 08...etc...etc...etc...

[highnote]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yeah, they all bought in at the low...

Funny stuff...they MADE BACK their losses and THEN made some money (this didn't start happening until 2013 by the way)...most of them, anyway...those that didn't bail in a panic back in 08...etc...etc...etc...

I can only hypothesize how "they" did. I'm just giving the facts.

The market started turning around in March of 2009 -- a month or so after Obama took office. There were 10 straight days where the up volume to down volume ratio averaged more than 2 to 1. That is a huge sign of momentum and confidence.

This happened this past July while Obama was still in office and Clinton was the favorite to win.

You can attribute this continuing bull market to Trump or Obama or whoever you want. Does it really matter who gets the credit?

The important thing is to look at the facts and then invest accordingly.

[Secondbest]

The rise since 09 is all Fed driven 0 interest rates or close to it,A bunch of QE's and Tarp all led to a recovery in the financial health of the banks and other lenders. Employment growth was weak. Send a thank you to fed for the rise since 09,
.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by highnote

I can only hypothesize how "they" did. I'm just giving the facts.

The market started turning around in March of 2009 -- a month or so after Obama took office. There were 10 straight days where the up volume to down volume ratio averaged more than 2 to 1. That is a huge sign of momentum and confidence.

This happened this past July while Obama was still in office and Clinton was the favorite to win.

You can attribute this continuing bull market to Trump or Obama or whoever you want. Does it really matter who gets the credit?

The important thing is to look at the facts and then invest accordingly.

I don't care who is causing the market to go up...but to say investors made 250% with Obama is ridiculous...people were bleeding out when he took office.

Only a precious few bought substantially at the beginning of 2009, so I would venture to guess hardly ANYBODY made 250%. Like I said, those with the balls to actually stay in, MADE THEIR LOSSES back in around 2013, and THEN started making money again....

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I don't care who is causing the market to go up...but to say investors made 250% with Obama is ridiculous...people were bleeding out when he took office.

Only a precious few bought substantially at the beginning of 2009, so I would venture to guess hardly ANYBODY made 250%. Like I said, those with the balls to actually stay in, MADE THEIR LOSSES back in around 2013, and THEN started making money again....

who the cares about stock markets. it took 8 years to make the 250%, i am going to come up with a move in the superbowl that will make you 300% in less than 3 hours.......

stay tuned

[_______]

I think we'll see the Dow below 19,000 before it's above 21,000. It's not much of a prediction (a 5% retracement before a 5% gain) but give me some credit for the enthusiasm currently evident in the market.

I'm still optimistic that the administration and one party control of congress will be good for the market in general but the run up so far has been an expansion in an already heady P/E ratio on the expectation that a lot will happen in a hurry.

It won't. The Senate will be tied up confirming a new justice shortly.

I think that as the reality sets in that meaningful tax reform isn't going to impact fiscal year 2017, there will be a pullback.

I sure hope so. I'm 30% in cash since mid-Decemberish.

[lamboguy]

i have been buying this stupid thing for the last 6 months. usually i would never tout a penny stock that is below a penny right now in a million years. most of these stocks are complete pump and dump scams. but this one has some very interesting people behind it like Beau Dietl, letters of endorsements from people like Warren Buffet and Donald Trump.

they have a tremendous law firm that is suing large company's. they deal with internet security and the money to be made at first will be in these lawsuits.

currently selling for .0056 cents. that is a little more than half a penny. it should go back to .03 whether the market stays friendly or turns bearish.

do your own due diligence on this one. i think its a double great gamble.