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02-24-2017, 10:43 PM
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#166
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
You know as well as I do that the only day to play those options is on a Friday...
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Not so. They now have Wednesday expiration. "Time decay" is a thing of the past.
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02-24-2017, 11:19 PM
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#167
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
Not so. They now have Wednesday expiration. "Time decay" is a thing of the past.
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Meant to infer that Friday is the BEST day to play this option......You agreed in the past with this post:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...56&postcount=1
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02-25-2017, 11:32 AM
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#168
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,131
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I don’t think that they had the Wednesday expiration when I typed that. Now “Friday” comes twice a week.
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02-27-2017, 02:23 PM
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#169
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
I love the action of penny stocks.
However, for those that are interested in real leverage I would suggest SPY twice-weekly options.
Thousand percent gains are possible on almost a daily basis with limited risk.
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slight exaggeration at best. and you'll lose 15 times before you cash once.
ps, is it leverage we seek or edge?
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02-27-2017, 04:54 PM
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#170
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,657
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SFOR down 6% today on very light volume.
still waiting for .0087 for a re-entry
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02-27-2017, 05:11 PM
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#171
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
My prediction is that the is S&P will hit a high somewhere between 2367 and 2474 between now and January 12. That is a 10% to 15% gain over the July 14, 2016 close of 2152.
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S&P closed at 2369.75 today. That is right at the low end of my prediction from July 14 and that I posted here a few months ago.
The last time I made a 6 month prediction here and posted it, I was correct about the direction of the S&P and the target price, but got the timing wrong.
I'm a little closer this time. I got the direction right and hit the low end of the target, but missed it by 5 weeks.
That's not a hole in one, but close enough for a birdie or maybe even an eagle.
Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
A major "buy" indicator was triggered on July 8 when the Up Volume to Down Volume ratio on the NYSE exceeded 9 to 1. Two days later another "buy" indicator was triggered when the Up Stocks to Down Stocks ratio on the NYSE exceeded 2 to 1. This indicator is very rare, but is an extremely powerful momentum indicator. It happened 11 times from 1953 to 1993, but every time the market rose by nearly 10% over the next 6 months. The average gain was 15%. (I will calculate from 1993 to present and see if it holds true.)
The S&P closed today at 2150 -- right where it was back on July 12. Considering that September is one of the weakest months of the year. The market has plenty of upside.
The presidential election is a big factor. The market traditionally does better under democratic presidents than republicans. If Clinton wins the market should continue higher. Probably because the Fed will keep interest rates low and continue its policy of quantitative easing.
If Trump wins then all bets are off.
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02-27-2017, 05:13 PM
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#172
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,657
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the equity markets have been up 12 days in a row now. if there is anything i have learned in life, anything that keeps on going straight up is usually a precursor to some type of crash, usually within a year of making these extended highs.
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02-27-2017, 05:22 PM
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#173
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
the equity markets have been up 12 days in a row now. if there is anything i have learned in life, anything that keeps on going straight up is usually a precursor to some type of crash, usually within a year of making these extended highs.
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Agreed. We are getting near the top. However, the trend is your friend. I'm keeping a close eye on my portfolio and have tight stops in place.
As this slightly out of date chart shows, the S&P has gone 36 days without a 1% intra day move. It's actually up to about 50 days now.
Calm before the storm. Sell in May and go away.
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 02-27-2017 at 10:39 PM.
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02-27-2017, 09:23 PM
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#174
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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a) cant keep going up
b) trend is your friend
Someone is guaranteed to look smart, if only for a brief moment.
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02-27-2017, 09:28 PM
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#175
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
a) cant keep going up
b) trend is your friend
Someone is guaranteed to look smart, if only for a brief moment.
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Sometimes, nobody is wrong.
The key is knowing when to follow the wisdom of either statement.
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02-27-2017, 09:55 PM
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#176
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Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
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It usually serves the individual well when he is a contrarian and goes against the crowd.
But said individual must also be cognizant of the fact that sometimes the crowd is simply correct. Many do not know this.
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02-27-2017, 10:06 PM
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#177
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
It usually serves the individual well when he is a contrarian and goes against the crowd.
But said individual must also be cognizant of the fact that sometimes the crowd is simply correct. Many do not know this.
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Agreed. Blair Hull made hundreds of millions as a trend follower.
Some of the most successful futures traders are trend followers.
I think John Henry, owner of the Boston Red Sox, made a lot of his money as a trend follower. I'd have to double-check that, though.
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03-01-2017, 01:39 PM
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#178
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
...That's not a hole in one, but close enough for a birdie or maybe even an eagle.
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Well, I'd give you an eagle for the direction and numbers, but even you must admit the prediction of Hillary winning the election being good for the market was - well, not so accurate. That's assuming of course that Trump winning the election would be bad for the market.
Which begs the question, did the election results really affect the market anyway?
I was completely fooled by the melt up, and was hoping to make a swing trade on the election results, assuming there would be a big move, then a bounce back. But I thought that move would occur over several days, and not several hours, as those who went long on election eve made a killing.
But the market, unlike horse racing, only goes up, down or stays the same. It's easier to be "right" about a prediction, regardless of whether or not your logic was correct. This of course happens with the ponies too - though it takes more dumb luck to stumble on the accidental winner.
So what I have learned, or the conclusion that I have reached since the election, is that the dynamics of the market are still clearly in favor of the bulls. This defies some of the fundamentals, IMHO, but as the bulls have pointed out, you can't fight the tape. I'm not sure if the money is coming in from overseas, from the Feds, or from some alien source, but the dynamics to create any selling pressure at all are obviously not present.
It will be interesting to see how the debt ceiling and budget talks go in Congress in a couple of weeks, and how the market reacts. Trump has indicated that Federal spending is "out of control", which it is, but then he talks out of the other side of his mouth and wants to increase defense and infrastructure spending AND provide a huge tax break to the middle class. Until proven otherwise, I'm assuming his arithmetic skills are along the same lines as the magical thinking Bernanke and Yellen.
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03-01-2017, 02:00 PM
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#179
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Those SPY call options did one of those rare 15 bagger moves if you bought last night,
Easy game!
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03-01-2017, 02:01 PM
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#180
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
Sometimes, nobody is wrong.
The key is knowing when to follow the wisdom of either statement.
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If someone can do that reliably they would eventually have all the money in the world.
Clearly, easier said than done
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