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10-09-2009, 12:56 PM
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#1
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,297
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Emotion colors logic
I think too many people have seen too many movies where the big winner comes from the clouds to get up in the final strides. NOT REALITY although folks keep thinking it is. Horses closer up to the pace are where its at on most of the surfaces in North America.
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"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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10-09-2009, 01:44 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Henderson, NV
Posts: 867
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In my early days, I was stretch runners only until Gordon Jones pointed out the obvious fact that frontrunners are already in the lead so take advantaghe of that
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kitts
Kitts Anderson
Chairman, Oldguys Oasis
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10-09-2009, 02:06 PM
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#3
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Quintessential guru
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 11,254
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Kitts:
Don't feed the bear. 
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A free people ought not only to be armed, but disciplined; to which end a uniform and well-digested plan is requisite; and their safety and interest require that they should promote such manufactories as tend to render them independent of others for essential, particularly military, supplies.
George Washington
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10-09-2009, 02:31 PM
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#4
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 46zilzal
I think too many people have seen too many movies where the big winner comes from the clouds to get up in the final strides. NOT REALITY although folks keep thinking it is. Horses closer up to the pace are where its at on most of the surfaces in North America.
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Knowing and using statistics related to the reality that you cite help in keeping emotional deviations in check.
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10-09-2009, 02:32 PM
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#5
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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If you keep records a the specif track you play, you don't need to waste your time on stupid general platitudes. That advise is about as useful as "It gets cold in the December." Unless you live in Miami.
Having limited handicapping ability tends to limit the tracks and surfaces you can play. Sartin talked theses people who can only juggle one ball at a time.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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10-09-2009, 03:56 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 580
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This must be why all the smart late money always seems to go on the front runner.
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10-09-2009, 04:04 PM
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#7
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Oh really?
Got any data to back that up?
On turf, on poly?
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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10-09-2009, 04:25 PM
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#8
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
Oh really?
Got any data to back that up?
On turf, on poly?
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I think SMOO was referring to really late money (i.e., bets made (after the gate has opened) on the horses that actually break in front).
Last edited by Overlay; 10-09-2009 at 04:34 PM.
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10-09-2009, 09:14 PM
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#9
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AllAboutTheROE
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Denver
Posts: 2,411
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I thought it was "all bout the individual?"  These generalities have no place in racing!  I threw out my database that told me that!
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"No problem can withstand the assault of sustained thinking" -- Voltaire
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10-09-2009, 10:02 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,432
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one things for sure. closers usually pay better. so looking at races where the pace gets out of hand, or heavy turf usually yields good paying exacta's and trifecta's. most handicappers are speed freaks like most of the horses nowadays. playing the closer when it looks as if that horse has a legitimate chance is usually a moneymaking opportunity.
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10-10-2009, 02:20 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bisket
one things for sure. closers usually pay better. so looking at races where the pace gets out of hand, or heavy turf usually yields good paying exacta's and trifecta's. most handicappers are speed freaks like most of the horses nowadays. playing the closer when it looks as if that horse has a legitimate chance is usually a moneymaking opportunity. |
They pay better because they win less often....so it's 30% winnners for speed at $6 a winner or 10% winner for closers at $15 a winner. Either way, you're a loser.
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