Odds Line

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Every time I've called myself a "winner", I've gone on an immediate and prolonged losing streak...the sort of losing streak that made me feel as if I was the "biggest loser". Now, when "winning" is getting talked about...I am very careful about the words that I use, if I even decide to talk at all.

There's no way you can be confident in anything because there's a lot of variance involved in a low probability game like this. That goes double if you are playing exotics and quadruple if you are playing the tougher horizontals where occasional huge scores are possible even if you are clueless and long negtative periods are possible even if you are brilliant. It's almost impossible tell if you were lucky/unlucky and actually have an edge even after multiple years playing bets like that.

On top of that the game is slowly changing and the betting patterns of the public are slowly changing with it.

That's the main thing that keeps me from really stepping out when I "think" I have an edge. I'm not really sure. I was much more arrogant in my 20s. I would bet my entire paycheck on a single race if I thought I had good enough value. Now I know 10x as much and hem and haw over smaller bets.

[Johnny V]

I look at it this way and I try and always remember this. You are really never as really good as you may think you are when you are picking winners and are on a nice win streak. On the other hand, you are never as bad as you think you are when things are going south and it seems like you can't pick a winner.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

.On top of that the game is slowly changing and the betting patterns of the public are slowly changing with it.

The game might certainly be changing from the perspective of the handicapper, but I guarantee the ACTUAL betting patterns aren’t changing at all! Money is money and the available Parimutuel and Vertical betting remains completely visible and more importantly use-able. I’ll live with that nice edge as long as I continue to play a game that doesn't require an exact science to figure it all out. After all, it is just game and incidentally whether anyone wants to admit it or not, it’s always been completely controlled by money.

The continual enigma obviously suggests that the majority of players are not able to comprehend that there’s much more going during a typical betting cycle than just the Win pool (The Odds). As far as I’m concerned, the ONLY thing they (the Odds) provide is what a winner’s return value might be. BTW Comparing them to a personally generated odds line in search for over or underlays is as far as I’m concerned a total waste of time and effort.
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[Running Amok]

Originally Posted by Nitro

As far as I’m concerned, the ONLY thing they (the Odds) provide is what a winner’s return value might be. BTW Comparing them to a personally generated odds line in search for over or underlays is as far as I’m concerned a total waste of time and effort.
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When I first read that I was surprised. Then after I thought about it I realized not many folks I know who play the races care to make an odds line.

Does making an odds line provide the only way to win consistently?
Does making an odds line provide only what the winners' return value will be?

In my opinion the answer to both questions is no.

But I am not here to argue with you folks. I stated in my original post "I just wanted to say hello to everyone and if anyone is interested in having a conversation about making an odds line and learning more about value betting, I'd be happy to hear from you."

Of course, I welcome opposing viewpoints. I see that Nitro and a lot of other folks that commented have been members here for a long time and I appreciate their opinions.

I will say though that making an odds line in races that interest me has not only helped me to determine if a horse is an overlay or not. It also helps me figure out how I want to play the race. With the benefit of an odds line, I see opportunities that I might have missed. In other words, it gets me more into the race and helps point out possible lucrative betting strategies. To me it is more than just "Comparing them to a personally generated odds line in search for over or underlays. "

I understand some think making a line is boring. I also understand there are software programs out there that do this automatically. I even tried using the ratings in Brisnet to compile and calculate an odds line in Excel. It is not always accurate but it’s better than nothing and does well in certain races. I showed an example of it HERE in another thread.

But I have come to realize that unless someone writes a program that can take each race as a separate puzzle and analyze countless subtleties of horse racing, a computer is not likely to be as accurate at making a line than a human can. Albeit a human with “intuitive reasoning,” according to Mark Cramer. He states in his book “If a betting line is to be constructed to uncover “value” best, it must incorporate artistic thought. In other words, there must be a way to translate logic and creativity into a number.”

Now that is thinking outside the box! Like I stated in my original post, Marks' book is a pleasure to read and it really opened my mind.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Running Amok

When I first read that I was surprised. Then after I thought about it I realized not many folks I know who play the races care to make an odds line.

Does making an odds line provide the only way to win consistently?
Does making an odds line provide only what the winners' return value will be?

In my opinion the answer to both questions is no.

But I am not here to argue with you folks. I stated in my original post "I just wanted to say hello to everyone and if anyone is interested in having a conversation about making an odds line and learning more about value betting, I'd be happy to hear from you."

Of course, I welcome opposing viewpoints. I see that Nitro and a lot of other folks that commented have been members here for a long time and I appreciate their opinions.

I will say though that making an odds line in races that interest me has not only helped me to determine if a horse is an overlay or not. It also helps me figure out how I want to play the race. With the benefit of an odds line, I see opportunities that I might have missed. In other words, it gets me more into the race and helps point out possible lucrative betting strategies. To me it is more than just "Comparing them to a personally generated odds line in search for over or underlays. "

I understand some think making a line is boring. I also understand there are software programs out there that do this automatically. I even tried using the ratings in Brisnet to compile and calculate an odds line in Excel. It is not always accurate but it’s better than nothing and does well in certain races. I showed an example of it HERE in another thread.

But I have come to realize that unless someone writes a program that can take each race as a separate puzzle and analyze countless subtleties of horse racing, a computer is not likely to be as accurate at making a line than a human can. Albeit a human with “intuitive reasoning,” according to Mark Cramer. He states in his book “If a betting line is to be constructed to uncover “value” best, it must incorporate artistic thought. In other words, there must be a way to translate logic and creativity into a number.”

Now that is thinking outside the box! Like I stated in my original post, Marks' book is a pleasure to read and it really opened my mind.

"Handicapping is an art, it has never been a science"...the inimitable Tom Ainslie wrote half a century ago. And I agreed with this sentiment when I first read it...because I too valued "art" more than I did 'science'. But I have since realized that the more scientific "computer guys" have become the game's biggest winners...whereas the "intuitive", "artistic" players are scrambling to keep pace, and their survival in the game has been placed in jeopardy.

I don't know what the much-esteemed Mark Cramer is doing these days...he was last seen bicycling in France, and betting on the French harness races. But if he were here betting the thoroughbreds, I think he would have renewed respect for the "computer players"...as would Tom Ainslie, if he were still alive.

[Poindexter]

To the OP, I Have posted numerous times on the subject. as I was making odds lines over 40 years ago. For much of my horse race betting lifetime, making odds lines was part of what I have done. I don't find it boring, I find it easy. But from a betting standpoint it can be constraining. Honestly, from a betting standpoint I too often bet like an idiot even when I handicap races really, really well. I am working really hard to change that. I think a lot of it is bad habits that I picked up from years of lining races and focusing on "value" (though perhaps I picked up the bad habits for other reasons). I also think a lot of it is lack of confidence when most of my betting was dictated based once again off of "perceived value or lack of it". Logically, it makes sense that making an odds line is the most accurate way to identify value. But logic and reality do not seem to currently match for me. So many horses that appear to offer great value curiously do not when I look at my long term results. Truth be told the crowd/caw does a pretty good job of creating a pretty good odds line on most horses. If you think that you can consistently identify horses that should be over 2-1 and are going off as odds on favorites and make a killing taking a stand against them, I think you are in for a rude awakening. But perhaps you are better than I am. So please, do not let me dissuade you. Do the work and see where it takes you. I don't think you are going to get crushed betting horses you make 6-1 at 10-1 or better. I do have a hunch some of these value horses are false value horses (well over your line but for reasons unbeknownst to you are priced properly). If line making works for you carry on and let us know. I do think you might find it frustrating that a lot of winning horses you thought were going to pay you 10-1 plus only pay 6-1 by the time the final betting comes in. You might also find it frustrating that some good value horses do not pop up until after the race has gone off (you make a horse 6-1 he is 7-1 as they load-favorite gets hammered and bingo you horse wins at $24, but you had no way of knowing he was going to pay $24).

I will say that in this day and age (the caw age), logically you have to look at the edge your competitors have. You basically have the masses getting no rebates and players points that could I guess be as high as 3 % rebates. You have the Maloney type sharps who pay about 10% on every pool and receive rebates for the rest of the takeout (22% trifecta pool equals 12% rebate) or the big time Caw players who receive huge rebates (they may get 15 or 16% rebates in the same trifecta pool). Even in win pools would not doubt if the some of the bigger caw units are getting rebates as high as 10%. Hard to imagine really sophisticated handicappers and bettors getting such large rebates are going to leave you value on a regular basis. Barry Meadow and Marc Cramer and Dick Mitchell were writing their books long before rebates.

If you are going to pursue the endeavor, focus on a track like Hawthorne (very cheap claimers) where they are offering a low takeout but typically short fields. Or Nyra, where they supposedly keep most of the CAW money out of the win pool (I believe it is win pool only so they can bet place or show) and obviously a much more enticing product.

I believe the one poster here (SJK spelling ?) who consistently made odds lines (I think it was computer aided or based) and seemed to be winning money over the years has recently posted that his opportunities have dried up considerably in the last couple of years. I think for the most part the only ones who are making lines are the highly sophisticated caw, and surely there line making ability goes far beyond I think the 3 should be 3-1 and the 6 should be 6-1.......

[pandy]

Like Dave S. said, software is a tool, not a black box. I use the same software programs that I sell. I can recall quite a few days where I would get emails from a customer (not the same one, different customers, different days), who were all excited because they just had a monster day. I played the same track, and I created the software, and I lost that day.

But they did a great job at putting together their exotic tickets.

And by the way, a public handicapper's picks are also a tool, not a black box. You wouldn't believe how many times I've gotten emails or calls from people who were thanking me for my picks because they had a huge day, on a day when I thought my picks didn't do well.

Maybe I only picked one winner on top and it was a favorite, but the customer calls and says, "I used your top three horses in both Pick 4's and hit both and one paid over $6,000! I won $7400!"

[Cutter14]

Pandy I have used several of your programs-and like most of the software I use I have had good days and bad days-I have no complaints and thank you for making them available