Is there a 'Glass Ceiling' on Speed Figures??

[Robert Fischer]

possible interesting speed figure discussion in here about

Speaker's Corner winning the Carter and Glass Ceiling winning the Distaff

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[Tom]

Beyer was on At The Races this morning to explain this in his Derby Trail wrap up. Haven't listened yet, but I he thought the track changed quit a bit between the two races.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Tom

Beyer was on At The Races this morning to explain this in his Derby Trail wrap up. Haven't listened yet, but I he thought the track changed quit a bit between the two races.

Nice! I'm a fan of Beyer and his opinions are often worth thinking/discussing.

If you feel like it, post a link. Sometimes I have trouble with finding/streaming ATR, and they have some really good guests on that show.

to be clear - I'm not actually going off on some rant here.

just writing this tongue-in-cheek, mostly because of the sort of pun/coincidence of the superficial interpretation and the name of the race mare Glass Ceiling.

it's also a relatively interesting chance to discuss how a track changes during the day.


I was at Laurel on Friday morning and the track was 'muddy' it wasn't extremely wet,... I don't know if 'sealed' is the correct term, but the tractors kind of scraped it with plywood-like flat extension. Between touching the track and observing, banking etc..., and talking to an outrider... I would maybe guess that Friday morning that the outer paths were a bit more firm than the rail.

By Saturday it still wasn't fast, but I noticed that the tractor extensions seemed to be raking/fluffing up the surface rather than flattening it.

Some of you guys are able to notice and discuss gold rail and path biases as they develop or from replays. Not something I have skill at.

[cj]

I don't see any way there was a big change between the races, but isn't that what makes this game great? I make some pretty extensive projections and this is how projected sprint race variants looked:

R2: 14
R5: 16.5
R9: 17
R11: 11.5

There is no way I would ever split those first three, and most times I would include R11 because it is borderline. But given the two routes (8 and 10), I was pretty confident that any change occurred between 9 and 10. And it was a pretty mild change, only 5 points.

I wound up settling on a variant of 17 points for races 2, 5, and 9 and 11 points for race 11.

I would guess Beyer had the horses looking a lot different than I did coming in and used different projections. But I'm sticking by mine, there is no way I see a big track change, particularly between races 5 and 9.

[Tom]

Thanks, CJ, loe it when you and Andy disagree on a big race, opens the door.

Robert, I just got what posted.....Glass Ceiling...

[classhandicapper]

Don't hold me to it because I don't have his current charts, but based on my research it looks like Beyer's variants were all over the place for AQU on 4/9.

Race 2: -13 (6f)
Race 5: -23 (7f)
Race 6: -30 (8f)
Race 8: -35 (9f)
Race 9: -12 (7f)
Race 10: -23 (9f)
Race 11: -12 (7f)

[classhandicapper]

I listened to that Beyer interview. Unless it was the wrong one he didn’t talk about track speed changes at AQU. He mostly talked about the SA Derby and the Baffert situation.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I listened to that Beyer interview. Unless it was the wrong one he didn’t talk about track speed changes at AQU. He mostly talked about the SA Derby and the Baffert situation.

I saw Steve Byk tweet about it, saying he should have asked but didn't.

[Robert Fischer]

https://stevebyk.com/broadcast/part-1-andy-beyer-2/

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Beyer did have some classic stuff on precocious Taiba, and the owner-driven power moves.

Beyers had a big difference 114 - 98, due to the perspective that the track had changed significantly.

TimeformUS had them closer 122 - 121 ( w/ final time figs 128 - 123 )

Equibase ( which I'm not familiar with, but seems to be more raw time-based ) had them 115-111

Thorograph, Sheets, others; I'm interested but don't have at a glance.

races were run over two hours apart, so depending on projections and perspective it certainly may have shifted

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Also feel that if they were to race each other, in an eight horse field of nondescript rivals, Speakers Corner would be heavily favored, and rightfully so.

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 04-12-2022 at 11:24 AM.

[classhandicapper]

I’m not being critical because I don’t have any brilliant ideas, but imo we are pretty close to the point where speed figures are no longer really speed figures. The final time is becoming increasingly less relevant than the subjective view of the figure maker about whether the track changed speeds. Turf is even more extreme, but for different reasons.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Also feel that if they were to race each other, in an eight horse field of nondescript rivals, Speakers Corner would be heavily favored, and rightfully so.

Little different story though. To me, how much dominance (or lack of) do the two show over their respective fields next time out is the bigger issue.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I’m not being critical because I don’t have any brilliant ideas, but imo we are pretty close to the point where speed figures are no longer really speed figures. The final time is becoming increasingly less relevant than the subjective view of the figure maker about whether the track changed speeds. Turf is even more extreme, but for different reasons.

Personally I always favor the clock when in doubt.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by cj

Personally I always favor the clock when in doubt.

Me too, more importantly I want to know the internal fractions and pace fig. I’m kind of old and racing has changed. Even more so with the smaller field sizes. There seems to be less aggressive speed duels than there used to be. It’s not true in every race but there are more one pace races IMO. When one jock senses it he’s off to the races literally and steals the race. Counting on a deeper closer is sometimes a ridiculous venture in these races. If it’s on the grass this where you can hit monster prices. The fields tend to be larger but the riders use the same tactics. Sometimes I watch these races and think the riders in front or stalking are actually getting a free pass. And with these three year olds I really can’t worry about the figs as much . One of these horses can jump up and improve in one race. To me, the number is more reliable if the horse is on the same track and has an extended race record. A younger horse can jump up out of no where . It’s the nature of racing experience.

[Thomas Roulston]

What about Preakness Day three years ago at Pimlico - when the previous track record for six furlongs was broken not once, but twice?

[SharpCat]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

What about Preakness Day three years ago at Pimlico - when the previous track record for six furlongs was broken not once, but twice?

Only broken once. Covfefe ran 6f in 1:07.70 and the previous mark was 1:09.90 set in 1990 by Northern Wolf.