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Old 09-25-2022, 02:55 AM   #4441
Rex Phinney
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If you bought SCHD three days ago you would have received a dividend of 64 cents, payable on 9/26.

But you would have paid about $3 more per share.

SCHD is a very well-managed ETF with a low expense ratio, 0.05 cents.

Whatever you do, good luck the rest of the way, Bway.
I’ll take the cheaper shares over the first dividend every time. Waiting an extra quarter for the first dividend is no big deal, the cheaper shares make us more money forever.

SCHD is really the only dividend growth ETF that delivers the goods.
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Old 09-25-2022, 08:07 AM   #4442
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How do you define “safe”?

If you want something to buy today and sell tomorrow then yea things can go sideways right now.

If you want something to buy now, get paid an actual portion of real company profits and can hold as long as you like then there is “safe” stuff to buy right now.

Weren’t you the one that was jamming me up about how McDonald’s was going to utterly collapse a few months ago? And I told you it would outperform the market in a downturn? McDonald’s is actually UP 3% in the last six months while the S&P is down over 15%. And oh yeah, they’ll pay me MORE money to own it this year than they did last year, just like they have 49 years in a row.

Most people’s biggest problem in the stock market is they are buying junk companies. Junk that makes no actual profit, has no track record and returns no money to shareholders. Those types of traders will lose their ass right now, and I’ll laugh at them while they do.
there is no such thing as safe in anything you do in life.

when you get programmed in life to believe that things like markets have only one direction to travel (in the long run, meaning years) you will be in for a rude awakening. these markets, including dividend-paying ETF's are primed to go down for many years just like its gone up for many years.

i know its tough for most people to comprehend what i am preaching here because people get complacent to things and can't understand how things change.
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Old 09-25-2022, 11:57 AM   #4443
Rex Phinney
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there is no such thing as safe in anything you do in life.

when you get programmed in life to believe that things like markets have only one direction to travel (in the long run, meaning years) you will be in for a rude awakening. these markets, including dividend-paying ETF's are primed to go down for many years just like its gone up for many years.

i know its tough for most people to comprehend what i am preaching here because people get complacent to things and can't understand how things change.
No one here is saying there is no risk in the market or that things can’t go down from here, why do you keep insisting that’s everyone’s train of thought?

The fact of the matter is from a dividend paying perspective lower prices are awesome. You get more shares for your money and this a higher yield. It’s an area of investing that has largely been forgotten the last decade because prices have ballooned so much that yields where crap.

The economy could hit a major slowdown, no doubt, but take FedEx for example. They made an announcement that global shipping demand is slowing and everyone totally flies off the handle. You’d think a meteor had landed and taken out every FedEx facility on the planet. FedEx didn’t say they were never going to ship anything again EVER. They just said demand is softening.

I LOVE the current state of the market. For anyone with a time horizon longer than 2-3 years it’s a buyers market and probably getting cheaper from here.
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Old 09-25-2022, 12:30 PM   #4444
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I’ll take the cheaper shares over the first dividend every time. Waiting an extra quarter for the first dividend is no big deal, the cheaper shares make us more money forever.

SCHD is really the only dividend growth ETF that delivers the goods.

I completely agree it is always a better move to buy cheaper than taking any price just to buy a dividend.
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Old 09-26-2022, 08:32 AM   #4445
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Well, we are at that point again.....

With pre-market down , its now open for another 300 pt drop to pandemic level...

Its really big where today closes ........

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Old 09-26-2022, 01:13 PM   #4446
Rex Phinney
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Well, we are at that point again.....

With pre-market down , its now open for another 300 pt drop to pandemic level...

Its really big where today closes ........

The total lack of enthusiasm from any buyers is a noticeable shift from a couple months prior. Seems like the Fed might have finally landed a message to even the most optimistic of investors.


I will say this, the way the Fed is moving it's change in position is going to be swift, noone knows how high they will take rates or for how long, but given the pace they are moving the effect on the economy is going to come quick. This IMO will force a change in stance from the Fed just as quick.


I am partially curious of what happens if rate hikes alone don't fix inflation. The labor market has a LONG way to fall before wage growth is suppressed or it gains better balance. And then there is the problem of the government spending like drunken sailors......
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Old 09-26-2022, 01:48 PM   #4447
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If you bought SCHD three days ago you would have received a dividend of 64 cents, payable on 9/26.

But you would have paid about $3 more per share.

SCHD is a very well-managed ETF with a low expense ratio, 0.05 cents.

Whatever you do, good luck the rest of the way, Bway.
I just re-thought buying this.....

BankRate checks....

Best Savings Rate @ 2.61 %

1 yr CD ....3.00 %

and it should go higher


SCHD is at 3.35 %




With competition emerging from financial institutes to get your money...

Looks like the safer investment is not with the SCHD
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Old 09-26-2022, 02:45 PM   #4448
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my thoughts exactly.....

beta on this is .86 which is less volatile than the market swings

might buy in on Monday

todays SP showed a support level turn around when it hit 3650

hopefully it an up trend after this
Well....

its where I figured the fight should be ....3650


2 hours left
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Old 09-26-2022, 03:58 PM   #4449
Rex Phinney
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I just re-thought buying this.....

BankRate checks....

Best Savings Rate @ 2.61 %

1 yr CD ....3.00 %

and it should go higher


SCHD is at 3.35 %




With competition emerging from financial institutes to get your money...

Looks like the safer investment is not with the SCHD

True.


But I would add that SCHD has averaged 12% increase to it's payout over the last 11 years. So whatever you're getting this year you'll get more next year, then more the year after that etc, etc.


I'm not saying this ETF is bullet proof, simply that at these lower prices the yields are the best we have seen in a while.
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Old 09-26-2022, 04:45 PM   #4450
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the SPY has a price projection of 312 for now. the QQQ has a price projection of 194.

this market is headed to a major financial disaster.
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Old 09-26-2022, 05:53 PM   #4451
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Well....

its where I figured the fight should be ....3650


2 hours left
3655...

its teasing the hell out of me.....


I believe once it does break lower


all bets are off...


I'm coming out and not risking my 2014 investment
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Old 09-26-2022, 06:25 PM   #4452
Rex Phinney
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the SPY has a price projection of 312 for now. the QQQ has a price projection of 194.

this market is headed to a major financial disaster.

The SPY price you quoted is about 15% down from here. I find that to be totally believable & reasonable. The only thing I'm unsure of is does it go there by year end or does it get some bounces between now and the bottom. I'd have to think any kind of bounce would be met with sell offs to stop it in it's tracks.
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Old 09-26-2022, 08:58 PM   #4453
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The SPY price you quoted is about 15% down from here. I find that to be totally believable & reasonable. The only thing I'm unsure of is does it go there by year end or does it get some bounces between now and the bottom. I'd have to think any kind of bounce would be met with sell offs to stop it in it's tracks.
this projection is only for this leg down. much more downward pressure to follow.

bear markets don't usually go straight down, this one looks like a big mess to me.
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Old 09-27-2022, 07:04 PM   #4454
Rex Phinney
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this projection is only for this leg down. much more downward pressure to follow.

bear markets don't usually go straight down, this one looks like a big mess to me.

This one has been going down for 9 months.


Mutual funds today hit the highest levels of cash they have ever held. What does that tell me? It tells me that once this market feels like the end of bad news is near you better be positioned properly. Where ever the bottom is you aren't going to get very long to buy it.


Bonds will go first, they will bottom before year end, and by January 31, 2023 they will be up 15%.
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Old 09-27-2022, 07:16 PM   #4455
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this market may go down for the next 25 or 30 years. my guess is that a bottom will be found around june 2023. no idea what price will look like then. then the S+P will somehow head up to 10,000, but that 10,000 won't buy you what 1000 would today.
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