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Old 07-31-2015, 12:18 AM   #16
Cratos
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Originally Posted by cj
Let us know when you post your off track selections please.
I addressed the thesis of the OP's thread which didn't include posting any selections.

By the way, I didn't see that request made before my post.

I find it curious that in an open forum selective points of view are asked to be verified.

The understanding of my post is straightforward and easily applied.
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Old 07-31-2015, 09:01 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cratos
I addressed the thesis of the OP's thread which didn't include posting any selections.

By the way, I didn't see that request made before my post.

I find it curious that in an open forum selective points of view are asked to be verified.

The understanding of my post is straightforward and easily applied.
Quote:
However I don't subscribe to the notion that an "off-track" surface cannot be reliably assessed or measured
Nowhere was that stated in the original post.

Sure, you can measure the track variant or resistance or whatever you want to call it. What is difficult is predicting which horses will run well on today's track which is why many choose not to play. I was hoping you could shed some light on that part of it.
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Old 07-31-2015, 09:20 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by cj
Nowhere was that stated in the original post.

Sure, you can measure the track variant or resistance or whatever you want to call it. What is difficult is predicting which horses will run well on today's track which is why many choose not to play. I was hoping you could shed some light on that part of it.
Cj...let's not forget what the renowned horseplayer Neil deGrasse Tyson famously declared:

"Science is correct, even if you don't believe it".
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Old 07-31-2015, 10:05 AM   #19
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This used to be a problem at FL back in the day when I did my own pace and speed figs. The spring meet was usually deep with DRF variant in the 30-45 range. In the summer, they were in the 10-15 range. Just because there was a good variant didn't mean the horses who thrived on deep going could run on the pavement of July. These are not machines.
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Old 07-31-2015, 10:07 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by Tom
This used to be a problem at FL back in the day when I did my own pace and speed figs. The spring meet was usually deep with DRF variant in the 30-45 range. In the summer, they were in the 10-15 range. Just because there was a good variant didn't mean the horses who thrived on deep going could run on the pavement of July. These are not machines.
Very true.

And let's not forget, especially on off tracks, the track is constantly changing throughout the day. Sometimes this is due to weather, sometimes it is due to maintenance, and sometimes both.

A "one variant" day is rare on off tracks in my opinion.
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Old 07-31-2015, 10:25 AM   #21
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The notion that this game is just a "math or a physics problem waiting to be solved" is something that I will never be able to accept. These are living, breathing animals...who have their own likes and dislikes...just like us HUMAN animals. There is an ARTISTIC side to this game, which cannot be ignored...IMO. The mathematical approach has its limitations too...regardless of what the academicians among us might think.
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Old 07-31-2015, 10:32 AM   #22
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Old 07-31-2015, 10:44 AM   #23
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I tend to avoid off tracks when it gets so wet there are puddles on the surface and a lot of horses clearly are not reacting well because the gaps between them at the finish are huge.

Other than that I handicap the same way and just glance at each horse's off track races to see if there's any evidence of general preference. I am also more sensitive to speed and bad rail biases. You can sometimes find a decent play by throwing out some well bet horse that will be against it. Then you don't have to worry so much about picking someone that can handle it. You can just spread against a bad favorite.

The much bigger problem for me is dealing with the horses when they come back after running on an off track.

If you throw those races out, you will sometimes excuse a poor performance on an off track when the off track had nothing to do with the horse running poorly. He simply went off form. You will also sometimes throw out races where the horse legitimately improved and it wasn't that he just happened to like some wet track. You are more or less forced to make the same kind of subjective judgements about the horse's wet track ability we don't feel comfortable with on the day of the races.
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Old 07-31-2015, 10:47 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
The notion that this game is just a "math or a physics problem waiting to be solved" is something that I will never be able to accept. These are living, breathing animals...who have their own likes and dislikes...just like us HUMAN animals. There is an ARTISTIC side to this game, which cannot be ignored...IMO. The mathematical approach has its limitations too...regardless of what the academicians among us might think.
I think stats are good for answering general handicapping questions, but in real life the details of a horse and race are always a little different. You are sometimes forced to intuit some of the key questions in the race.
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Old 07-31-2015, 11:13 AM   #25
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Watch the warm-up closely. Nothing is guaranteed at the track, but once in a while you can spot a horse you think will run poorly and a horse you think will improve. Tread lightly though.
You're the only poster that has noted this. When sitting in the grandstand, (not at home on TV or computer) watching them come onto, and warm up, on a wet track...this is especially true. The pps have to be noted, in every aspect, but in addition hints can be seen in the horse's movements, their hooves--how they lift them, their head, their ears--pinned, wheeling, or forward, their tail swish. As you say, though, tread lightly. They are, of course, not absolutes, only small indications. It pays to observe.
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Old 07-31-2015, 11:30 AM   #26
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Yes and part of that artistry is admitting when a race or a day of racing has simply got you beat and you can't get your head around it.

When I was working doing video they used to get us to give a confidence level rating for every race and every raceday on a five point scale five being extremely confident and one meaning the opposite.

You then know that you have to be extremely cautious playing races that involve horses coming out of races or racedays that were tough to get your head around.

Eventually they will make sense, with the wisdom of hindsight you will find out how the form out of those races stacks up and you can then go back and fill in the gaps but for know don't try and manufacture some figures that you know have a high probability of being wrong.
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Old 07-31-2015, 05:36 PM   #27
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Grits and Ronsmac - I remember seeing a horse coming out to the track and when he first stepped foot on the mud he hesitated. When prompted by the rider to move he walked like you would if you were walking on broken glass. It reminded me of a cat when they step in water and with each paw that gets wet they stop and shake it. One step, shake, next step shake. The horse was live on the board at about 4-1 but after seeing this I put a big X right thru that horse. Ran up the track and was not comfortable running any part of the race. Unfortunately, unless you are at the track and can see this, sometimes it's hard to pick up signs like this when watching simulcasts.
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Old 07-31-2015, 05:47 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Bennie
Grits and Ronsmac - I remember seeing a horse coming out to the track and when he first stepped foot on the mud he hesitated. When prompted by the rider to move he walked like you would if you were walking on broken glass. It reminded me of a cat when they step in water and with each paw that gets wet they stop and shake it. One step, shake, next step shake. The horse was live on the board at about 4-1 but after seeing this I put a big X right thru that horse. Ran up the track and was not comfortable running any part of the race. Unfortunately, unless you are at the track and can see this, sometimes it's hard to pick up signs like this when watching simulcasts.
4RULES, BENNIE!! Hope you've been winning.

This is what I was speaking of...being on track. I've done this often at Saratoga, the first minute the horses step on the track. Like you say, it's sorta like a cat. You get the feeling, they're thinking, "nope, not today, folks".
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Old 07-31-2015, 06:11 PM   #29
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Grits - Been doing okay. This time of year I take it slow until Saratoga gets rolling. Always play cautious when meets first start but also catch some nice prices at the same time. Always looking at the 4-rules and L3. I also find certain equipment changes do well when meets start up. These all worked very well when Monmouth was just starting but things seem to have balanced out so have moved to Toga in search of the next buried treasure. Have not been using the figs as much lately, usually just days with multi stakes cards. I really miss all the little extras from the old days. Being able to adjust the days off , bold colored pfs when ran at the same distance as today and things like that. Use to be able to handicap the entire card in about 10 minutes. Now , for me at least, there is just too much information and not any I bother looking at. I almost forgot, fast pace race -best late pace horse. I keep plugging though cause I love the game
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