Structuring a Trifecta Ticket

[sq764]

I was curious of some methods by which everyone structures their trifecta tickets. My biggest mistakes come with capping the race well and not structuring the ticket properly and missing the tri..

Also, do you structure the ticket differently with a favorite on top vs a longshot on top?

Lastly, what do you think of Trifecta keys (top choice keyed over 3 or 4 horses)?

[twindouble]

Originally Posted by sq764

I was curious of some methods by which everyone structures their trifecta tickets. My biggest mistakes come with capping the race well and not structuring the ticket properly and missing the tri..

Also, do you structure the ticket differently with a favorite on top vs a longshot on top?

Lastly, what do you think of Trifecta keys (top choice keyed over 3 or 4 horses)?

I have no "FIXED" method in structuring a tri ticket or a Super ticket. It's primarily based on how I see the race unfolding and finishing taking into consideration the value in the horses I select. That may very well be one or two horses I see as keys in the race with value. Each race can offer up different opportunities or none at all if there's no value, ESP the tri.

Here's an example. I got the race down to 5 contenders and they all have good value, there's no way I'll key a horse in that case unless he's a stand out in my mind so I'll box those suckers up to be sure I win.

When I do have that key horse or two with value, that cuts down the investment so I'll go for more tickets.

Another case would be, I've got those two with value but anything after that is questionable so I'll go deep to cover my bases. (deep being more horses for third in the tri, third and forth in the super.) You wouldn't want have a $20 horse on top and get beat by some plug that falls in third or 4th, that happens a lot.


T.D.

[Thunder Gulch]

I prefer wheels to keys or boxes in general, though I play all at some time or another. Much like other wagers, the trifecta pays best when you can find an overlay on top. My favorite wheels are the 3x4x5 wheels with 27 combinations. If I can narrow the choice to 2 or key 1 on top, I'd rather do that than shave the 5th horse out of the show spot to save some money. I haven't had much luck keying standouts because the payouts aren't good enough, even if you can find a longshot to fill out the backside of the key.

[Valuist]

I agree w/what most of Thunder Gulch's strategy. I think in general, boxes make favorites underlays in the third slot, and to a lesser extent, the second slot. Ideally, a good trifecta race is where you have a negative opinion on the favorite, and believe he/she will be off the board. I guess if I had to narrow down my favorite ways to key they would be 1) a 2x4x6 ticket, having a couple longshots in the third slot, 2)3x3x5 and 3) keying two horses 1st and 2nd and 1st and 3rd with 4 to 6 others. That is anywhere from 16 to 24 tickets.

[ezpace]

tri's with exactas and win bets WHEN I PLAY((getting rarer)) = doped horses....

Just a Simple rule like win betting if the 2horses used in the win hole are not 4-1 or better NO TRI PLAY. Then its always the same structure.
This works for my style.it's not the only good strategy . I like the number of horses used 2nd and 3rd..especially with what the licey trainers are
doing to horses these days.= DOPE

12
---
12345
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12345 = $24 for every 1$ tri partial wheel.

[TRM]

One of my favorite plays is when I like a horse (single) that can hit the board. I usually play this in chaos type races. I will do a key wheel and wheel that single in all three spots:

1 / 234 /234 =$6

234 / 1 / 234 =$6

234/ 234 / 1 =$6 total $18

So if your key hits, you've got a decent chance to hit. Add another horse and you've got a $36 play.

[Tee]

Originally Posted by sq764

I was curious of some methods by which everyone structures their trifecta tickets. My biggest mistakes come with capping the race well and not structuring the ticket properly and missing the tri..

How many competitors can really win the race? I slim this down to no more than 2 horses & key on top. Who are the possible upsetters or logical 2nd place finishers? They will be going in the 2nd slot. Just about anyone can finish 3rd, so I'm not at all afraid to use the rest of the field if needed.

Originally Posted by sq764

Also, do you structure the ticket differently with a favorite on top vs a longshot on top?

You won't catch me putting the favorite and second choice together if one or the other is in the win spot. Now if I really like a longshot winner I have put the top two choices underneath. Another example would be the dead nuts favorite on top with a few longshots underneath.

Originally Posted by sq764

Lastly, what do you think of Trifecta keys (top choice keyed over 3 or 4 horses)?

Don't quite care for the solid key on top over 3 or 4 horses. Had too many get nipped at the wire. If I'm using that type of wager the ticket will look something like this 1/2,3/2,3,4 & 2,3/1/2,3,4.


There is always the clunk up horse as well that can be place in the 2nd & 3rd spots with a number of others built around him/her.

[Indulto]

Ok, guys. Enough Algebra. How about a real example?

Let's take Sunday' Pacific Classic at DMR.

#2 - Lava Man looks like a lock at equal weights and will probably be < 1-1.

His G1 Gold Cup rivals #5 - Magnum and #7 - Super Frolic are running for 2nd money.

Still classy #6 - Perfect Drift Beyers have gone from triple to double digits.

Derby hero #4 - Giacomo finally showed life at DMR.

#3 - Preachinatthebar barely beaten by Giacomo, but Baffert believes.

#1 - Top This and That won't.

#8 - Good Reward ships here for 2nd consecutive dirt start following competitive attempts below this (his best) distance on turf. Impressive connections. Hard to figure/rank.


How should one bet the TRI for this race -- if at all?

a) 2 - ALL - ALL

b) 2 - 5,7 - ALL

c) box 2, 5, 7, 8

d) Other, please specify

If any of the above are practical, how would you multiply combos using the favorite?

[Thunder Gulch]

I'd leave the all button alone. There will be a lot of key money with Lava Man on top, so I'd try to beat him or pass. Key him underneath, and you are getting somewhere.

The safest water in all of horse racing today is the all/ drift/ all or the slight variation of all/ all/drift. Today I'd lean towards putting him in the 3, but of course I'm only joking about using all in the other spots.

[Indulto]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I'd leave the all button alone. There will be a lot of key money with Lava Man on top, so I'd try to beat him or pass. Key him underneath, and you are getting somewhere.

The safest water in all of horse racing today is the all/ drift/ all or the slight variation of all/ all/drift. Today I'd lean towards putting him in the 3, but of course I'm only joking about using all in the other spots.

TG,
I get your drift, but I don't think his trainer does. When questioned about the perfect one's Beyers drifting lower, his reaction was, "the horse can't read."

All alone am I without a TRI. Maybe this is a job for superfecta: 2 w/5,7 w/5,7 w/ALL. That's my ten cents twice on Top This or That.

[chickenhead]

Perfect Drift's career earnings just barely cover the amount of money I have lost on him. That said, I love the old guy:

6 w 2,5 w 2,4,5,7,8

[wes]

1 / 234 /234 =$6

234 / 1 / 234 =$6

234/ 234 / 1 =$6 total $18

So if your key hits, you've got a decent chance to hit. Add another horse and you've got a $36 play.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
That is the way most people bet. A better wheel would be as follows.

1-2/1-2-3/1-2-3-4 for $8 You can place the 1-2-3-4 on top or in the middle. You can do it this way without limiting yourself to just one horse in a given position for only 2 bucks more.
This is a better play when your are not sure which horse in your top two will win.

The same play for superfectors are 8 bucks also. 1-2/1-2-3/1-2-3-4/1-2-3-4
wes

[oddswizard]

The odds on playing trifectas do not favor the player. I play it only when I have an 8-1 horse or higher in my top 3 selections. I list the selections as ABC. Here is a simple formula using the top 3 selections that give players a lot of bang for the buck. Total wager is $10.00. I play a $1.00 ABC box for $6.00 and a one way ABC tri for $4.00. If you win you hit the trifecta at least once. However, If your 3 horses win in the exact order you will hit the trifecta 5 times for a total wager of $$10.00. This is a value trifecta. Good luck.

[twindouble]

Originally Posted by oddswizard

The odds on playing trifectas do not favor the player. I play it only when I have an 8-1 horse or higher in my top 3 selections. I list the selections as ABC. Here is a simple formula using the top 3 selections that give players a lot of bang for the buck. Total wager is $10.00. I play a $1.00 ABC box for $6.00 and a one way ABC tri for $4.00. If you win you hit the trifecta at least once. However, If your 3 horses win in the exact order you will hit the trifecta 5 times for a total wager of $$10.00. This is a value trifecta. Good luck.

I think a 3 horse box is a very low percentage win. Using chalks doesn't produce any value so at least using an 8-1 shot or more is a good idea but I would say your going to miss out on some good payoffs by not keying that 8-1 you like and covering more horses. Another good point you make is going for more tickets when you feel you've narrowed the field down.

T.D.

[Tom]

2,7
2,7,3,8
2,7,3,8,4,6


$48 covers my dinner tonight.