2020 US Presidential election odds

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by Tor Ekman

But I digress. While I acknowledge that NJ is a long shot for Trump, having not voted GOP since 1998, do you really think Trump has no shot of flipping any of the states that he lost in 2016, patricularly New Hampshire???

I don't think it will happen, but I'd bet on NH and MN - not outside the bounds of possibility. There's a poll out today with Biden up by only 2 in MN.

[lamboguy]

111 Republican wins Presidential Election +135
112 Democrat wins Presidential Election -155



547 Republican Nominee wins Minnesota +250
548 Democratic Nominee wins Minnesota -350

[Marshall Bennett]

I see California as the only solid blue state come November. I'd say Massachusetts also maybe, only because George McGovern managed to carry it...the only state he won.

[lamboguy]

the democrats will be lucky if they carry 4 states, don't you guys know that this fantastic president has a ton of hidden vote locked in and loaded.

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the democrats will be lucky if they carry 4 states, don't you guys know that this fantastic president has a ton of hidden vote locked in and loaded.

I do not think that is anywhere accurate, I do think President Donald J. Trump is under polled across the board. I also think all general elections going forward for the next 20 years will be close no matter what anyone says, anything different than that projection will be garbage. In my state unemployment at its peak was 117K, per today's Governors Covid-19 report to the state we are just under 60k and falling fast.

[lamboguy]

for anyone that thinks these lines are a joke, Kamala Harris was the favorite for VP nominee right from the hop.

on the presidential election, Trump started out s slight favorite and went up as high as 2-1 fav. now he is an underdog as the incumbent.

polls currently have Trump as impossible to get re-elected. the lines do not say this now.

lets see who is right, i suspect it is the line as usual.

[PaceAdvantage]

Lines are always right?

Wow.

[lamboguy]

2020 US Presidential Election - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
111 Republican wins Presidential Election +145
112 Democrat wins Presidential Election -165
113 Republican wins Presidential Election +146
114 Field wins Presidential Election -166
115 Democrat wins Presidential Election -164
116 Field wins Presidential Election +144
117 Libertarian wins Presidential Election +38000
118 Field wins Presidential Election -76000
119 Green wins Presidential Election +42500
120 Field wins Presidential Election -85000
121 Republican/Democrat wins Election -45000
122 Libertarian/Green wins Election +15000
2020 US Presidential Election - Popular Vote Propositions - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
151 Jo Jorgensen finishes in third place -400
152 Any other candidate in third place +280
153 Kanye West finishes in third place +500
154 Any other candidate in third place -900
155 Howie Hawkins finishes in third place +600
156 Any other candidate in third place -1200
157 Donald Trump finishes in third place +20000
158 Any other candidate in third place -100000
159 Joe Biden finishes in third place +25000
160 Any other candidate in third place -125000
2020 US Presidential Election - Propositions - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
181 Joe Biden wins Popular Vote -475
182 Donald Trump wins Popular Vote +380
183 Biden wins Elections & Popular Vote -140
184 Any other result +100
185 Biden loses Elections & Popular Vote +250
186 Any other result -350
187 Biden wins Elections loses Popular Vote +1300
188 Any other result -3000
189 Biden loses Elections wins Popular Vote +300
190 Any other result -420
2020 US Election - House of Representatives - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
351 House Seats won by DEMS less than 209 +650
352 Any other result -1350
351 House Seats won by DEMS 210-213 +2500
352 Any other result -7500
353 House Seats won by DEMS 214-217 +1600
354 Any other result -4800
355 House Seats won by DEMS 218-221 +1600
356 Any other result -4800
357 House Seats won by DEMS 222-225 +1300
358 Any other result -3000
359 House Seats won by DEMS 226-229 +1300
360 Any other result -3000
361 House Seats won by DEMS 230-233 +850
362 Any other result -1750
363 House Seats won by DEMS 234-237 +500
364 Any other result -900
365 House Seats won by DEMS 238-241 +475
366 Any other result -825
367 House Seats won by DEMS 242-245 +425
368 Any other result -675
369 House Seats won by DEMS 246 or more +160
370 Any other result -210
United States Congress - Majority Control of Senate - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
401 Democratic Senators in 117th Congress -165
402 Republican Senators in 117th Congress +125
United States Congress - Majority Control of The House of Representatives - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
403 DEM Representatives in 117th Congress -675
404 REP Representatives in 117th Congress +425
2020 US Presidential Election - Democratic Party Sweep - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
405 DEMS win Election + Senate + Lower House +110
406 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -150
United States Congress - Control of Senate & House of Representatives - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
411 DEM control House REP control Senate +220
412 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -300
413 Democrats control House & Senate -145
414 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 +105
415 Republican control House & Senate +435
416 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -705
417 REP control House DEM control Senate +2000
418 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -6000
2020 US Presidential Election - Electoral Votes Winner - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
501 Republican Nominee wins Alabama -2000
502 Democratic Nominee wins Alabama +1000
503 Republican Nominee wins Alaska -460
504 Democratic Nominee wins Alaska +320
505 Republican Nominee wins Arizona +145
506 Democratic Nominee wins Arizona -185
507 Republican Nominee wins Arkansas -1050
508 Democratic Nominee wins Arkansas +550
509 Republican Nominee wins California +1050
510 Democratic Nominee wins California -2150
511 Republican Nominee wins Colorado +550
512 Democratic Nominee wins Colorado -1050
513 Republican Nominee wins Connecticut +700
514 Democratic Nominee wins Connecticut -1500
515 Republican Nominee wins Delaware +700
516 Democratic Nominee wins Delaware -1500
517 Republican Nominee wins Dist of Columbia +5500
518 Democratic Nominee wins Dist of Columbia -21500
519 Republican Nominee wins Florida -135
520 Democratic Nominee wins Florida -105
521 Republican Nominee wins Georgia -190
522 Democratic Nominee wins Georgia +150
523 Republican Nominee wins Hawaii +2400
524 Democratic Nominee wins Hawaii -7200
525 Republican Nominee wins Idaho -3000
526 Democratic Nominee wins Idaho +1300
527 Republican Nominee wins Illinois +800
528 Democratic Nominee wins Illinois -1700
529 Republican Nominee wins Indiana -825
530 Democratic Nominee wins Indiana +475
531 Republican Nominee wins Iowa -165
532 Democratic Nominee wins Iowa +125
533 Republican Nominee wins Kansas -1050
534 Democratic Nominee wins Kansas +550
535 Republican Nominee wins Kentucky -1050
536 Democratic Nominee wins Kentucky +550
537 Republican Nominee wins Louisiana -1200
538 Democratic Nominee wins Louisiana +600
539 Republican Nominee wins Maine +310
540 Democratic Nominee wins Maine -430
541 Republican Nominee wins Maryland +1200
542 Democratic Nominee wins Maryland -2600
543 Republican Nominee wins Massachusetts +1450
544 Democratic Nominee wins Massachusetts -4050
545 Republican Nominee wins Michigan +190
546 Democratic Nominee wins Michigan -270
547 Republican Nominee wins Minnesota +250
548 Democratic Nominee wins Minnesota -350
549 Republican Nominee wins Mississippi -1850
550 Democratic Nominee wins Mississippi +900
551 Republican Nominee wins Missouri -620
552 Democratic Nominee wins Missouri +410
553 Republican Nominee wins Montana -900
554 Democratic Nominee wins Montana +500
555 Republican Nominee wins Nebraska -2000
556 Democratic Nominee wins Nebraska +1000
557 Republican Nominee wins Nevada +340
558 Democratic Nominee wins Nevada -510
559 Republican Nominee wins New Hampshire +285
560 Democratic Nominee wins New Hampshire -405
561 Republican Nominee wins New Jersey +650
562 Democratic Nominee wins New Jersey -1350
563 Republican Nominee wins New Mexico +350
564 Democratic Nominee wins New Mexico -530
565 Republican Nominee wins New York +1100
566 Democratic Nominee wins New York -2300
567 Republican Nominee wins North Carolina -105
568 Democratic Nominee wins North Carolina -135
569 Republican Nominee wins North Dakota -2300
570 Democratic Nominee wins North Dakota +1100
571 Republican Nominee wins Ohio -150
572 Democratic Nominee wins Ohio +110
573 Republican Nominee wins Oklahoma -2000
574 Democratic Nominee wins Oklahoma +1000
575 Republican Nominee wins Oregon +800
576 Democratic Nominee wins Oregon -1700
577 Republican Nominee wins Pennsylvania +230
578 Democratic Nominee wins Pennsylvania -310
579 Republican Nominee wins Rhode Island +750
580 Democratic Nominee wins Rhode Island -1580
581 Republican Nominee wins South Carolina -600
582 Democratic Nominee wins South Carolina +400
583 Republican Nominee wins South Dakota -1750
584 Democratic Nominee wins South Dakota +850
585 Republican Nominee wins Tennessee -1750
586 Democratic Nominee wins Tennessee +850
587 Republican Nominee wins Texas -290
588 Democratic Nominee wins Texas +210
589 Republican Nominee wins Utah -650
590 Democratic Nominee wins Utah +420
591 Republican Nominee wins Vermont +1000
592 Democratic Nominee wins Vermont -2000
593 Republican Nominee wins Virginia +450
594 Democratic Nominee wins Virginia -750
595 Republican Nominee wins Washington +600
596 Democratic Nominee wins Washington -1200
597 Republican Nominee wins West Virginia -1500
598 Democratic Nominee wins West Virginia +700
599 Republican Nominee wins Wisconsin +160
600 Democratic Nominee wins Wisconsin -210
601 Republican Nominee wins Wyoming -2600
602 Democratic Nominee wins Wyoming +1200
2020 US Presidential Election - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
101 Joe Biden wins Presidential Election -165
102 Donald Trump wins Presidential Election +145
123 Kanye West wins Presidential Election +12750
124 Field wins Presidential Election -999999
2020 US Presidential Election - Electoral College Winning Margin - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
201 Trump wins by 280+ electoral votes +1200
202 Any other result -2600
203 Trump wins by 210-279 electoral votes +1000
204 Any other result -2000
205 Trump wins by 150-209 electoral votes +650
206 Any other result -1350
207 Trump wins by 100-149 electoral votes +1000
208 Any other result -2000
209 Trump wins by 60-99 electoral votes +1100
210 Any other result -2300
211 Trump wins by 30-59 electoral votes +1500
212 Any other result -4500
213 Trump wins by 10-29 electoral votes +1450
214 Any other result -4050
215 Trump wins by 1-9 electoral votes +1225
216 Any other result -2675
217 Electoral College tied 269-269 +4000
218 Electoral College not tied 269-269 -16000
219 J.Biden wins by 280+ electoral votes +310
220 Any other result -430
221 J.Biden wins by 210-279 electoral votes +450
222 Any other result -750
223 J.Biden wins by 150-209 electoral votes +650
224 Any other result -1350
225 J.Biden wins by 100-149 electoral votes +725
226 Any other result -1545
227 J.Biden wins by 60-99 electoral votes +1150
228 Any other result -2450
229 J.Biden wins by 30-59 electoral votes +1500
230 Any other result -4500
231 J.Biden wins by 10-29 electoral votes +2200
232 Any other result -6600
233 J.Biden wins by 1-9 electoral votes +3000
234 Any other result -11000
2020 US Presidential Election - Popular Vote Winning Margin - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
251 Trump wins popular vote by 10.5% or more +2500
252 Any other result -7500
253 Trump wins popular vote by 9% - 10.49% +2800
254 Any other result -9600
255 Trump wins popular vote by 7.5% - 8.99% +2300
256 Any other result -6900
257 Trump wins popular vote by 6% - 7.49% +2000
258 Any other result -6000
259 Trump wins popular vote by 4.5% - 5.99% +2200
260 Any other result -6600
261 Trump wins popular vote by 3% - 4.49% +1925
262 Any other result -5775
263 Trump wins popular vote by 1.5% - 2.99% +2200
264 Any other result -6600
265 Trump wins pop vote by less than 1.49% +1300
266 Any other result -3000
267 Biden wins popular vote by 10.5% or more +230
268 Any other result -310
269 Biden wins popular vote by 9% - 10.49% +500
270 Any other result -900
271 Biden wins popular vote by 7.5% - 8.99% +500
272 Any other result -900
273 Biden wins popular vote by 6.00% - 7.49% +625
274 Any other result -1275
275 Biden wins popular vote by 4.5% - 5.99% +725
276 Any other result -1545
277 Biden wins popular vote by 3% - 4.49% +825
278 Any other result -1725
279 Biden wins popular vote by 1.5% - 2.99% +1200
280 Any other result -2600
281 Biden wins pop vote by less than 1.49% +1400
282 Any other result -3600
2020 US Presidential Election - Propositions - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
901 Trump wins every state he won in 2016 +550
902 Trump loses a state he won in 2016 -1050
903 Trump loses every state he lost in 2016 -300
904 Trump wins a state he lost in 2016 +220
905 Winner of pop vote wins elect college -260
906 Winner of pop vote loses elect college +180
Live Lines v0.08.10.17. All rights reserved.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Marshall Bennett

I see California as the only solid blue state come November. I'd say Massachusetts also maybe, only because George McGovern managed to carry it...the only state he won.

So it will be a landslide of Reagan proportions

Trump wins the popular vote.

The house will be flipped

And the senate will add seats.

Dream on.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Lines are always right?

Wow.

Well they were in Veep stakes.

She was always the chalk.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Marshall Bennett

If he picks a white women all hell will break loose. Must be a black woman. Its all about the black vote. Biden needs all the help he can get. A quality VP candidate isn't a condition of consideration...color is.

And it happened. Now what.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Tor Ekman

Minnesota is a candidate, NH may be best bet, and also Virginia has a good chance of flipping back to a red state. Other possibilities are Maine and Colorado and I wouldn’t be shocked if the vast swaths of suburban voters in NJ have had enough to flip the state to GOP for first time since 1988 I think, and if Trump carries NJ then it’ll be an electoral landslide.

Educated suburbanites won’t vote for Donald trump.

They just won’t.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Betfair next president market

Biden 1.68
Trump 2.62

Allan

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Lines are always right?

Wow.

just an example, if you follow equity markets, sometimes the analyst projects better earnings, the stock comes in with better earnings and then it tanks.

in elections, polls are fairly accurate on who will get the most votes, but that don't mean anything, it comes down to how the votes get counted.

as you know, Trump is claiming ahead of time that the Democrats are rigging this election. but he is only pointing out one side of the election. he's not telling you that Republicans can do just as good a job as the Democrats in rigging elections if not better. the polls don't even take that into consideration, but your betting lines sure as hell do.

[lamboguy]

111 Republican wins Presidential Election +140
112 Democrat wins Presidential Election -160


money headed towards republican in Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas.

nothing headed toward the democrat.

North Carolina is one big dogfight. this state could decide the whole election.