David Milch Lost $100 Million at the Track

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

You made good bets, but your problem wasnt intelligence, it was a bankroll problem. If you spent another 36 and flipped the 4 into 2nd, you hit. You make that decision if you have a bigger kitty.

I had a bigger kitty. That wasn't the issue. I couldn't justify spending more than I did on that race.

Also, you can always play that game. If I had only spent another "x" I would have had that.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Valento

I had a bigger kitty. That wasn't the issue. I couldn't justify spending more than I did on that race.

Also, you can always play that game. If I had only spent another "x" I would have had that.

IMO...you didn't have enough time to think properly about your wager. That's why I do all my handicapping ahead of time; this leaves me with ample time to thoroughly think about and properly structure my bet.

You liked the 4 most of all...and your second-best horse was the 8...whom you also considered capable of winning the race. And you were going to use "all-all" in the last two legs. Given a little more time...you would have realized that the 4-8/ 4-8/ALL/ALL was the obvious addition to make to your wagers...and it would have been only a small additional investment.

We spend hours handicapping...and mere seconds creating our bets. When will we learn that they pay us for the BETTING?

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...you didn't have enough time to think properly about your wager. That's why I do all my handicapping ahead of time; this leaves me with ample time to thoroughly think about and properly structure my bet.

You liked the 4 most of all...and your second-best horse was the 8...whom you also considered capable of winning the race. And you were going to use "all-all" in the last two legs. Given a little more time...you would have realized that the 4-8/ 4-8/ALL/ALL was the obvious addition to make to your wagers...and it would have been only a small additional investment.

We spend hours handicapping...and mere seconds creating our bets. When will we learn that they pay us for the BETTING?

This is exactly right. I agree that I spent all of 90 seconds constructing these wagers and, in full disclosure, I was doing something for work at the same time and wasn't focused. It was just one of those throwaway bets that, in retrospect, I feel my carelessness and lack of thoughtfulness cost me a 5k score.

If you want to call it bad betting, or careless betting, or whatever, I think when you narrow your runners down to the ones that I did (I basically played the 4,7,8,10,12) and they run 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th at odds of 18-1, 7-2, 116-1, 6-5 and 7-2, you have to cash on that race.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by cj

I can buy the chasing/craving action thing. To me that is a totally different discussion. Those are addicts, just like the guy that is the subject of this thread. The thing is we don't really know if he is a "good handicapper"...that is always trotted out when in reality most of those people are bad handicappers too.

I can pick 37% winners betting every race at every track. Am I a good handicapper?

YES

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

You made good bets, but your problem wasnt intelligence, it was a bankroll problem. If you spent another 36 and flipped the 4 into 2nd, you hit. You make that decision if you have a bigger kitty.

With his thinking, all he would have had to do was add the 8 into the win spot and 4 into the 3rd spot. $79.20 for the new structure.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

It sounds to me like Milch had to write off $100,000,000 of losses against his winnings.

[cj]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

[/B]

YES

You can do that just betting the favorite.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Check out the movie Owning Mahowny. Once a gambling operation gets its hooks into you, they can be without conscience.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

Check out the movie Owning Mahowny. Once a gambling operation gets its hooks into you, they can be without conscience.

That's why it just breaks my heart to see some of those Vegas casinos on the verge of bankruptcy.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

The best horseplayer I know is at best a little above average handicapper, but in a singular class in assessing value. He rarely makes a betting mistake. Totally uncanny. And he makes a ton of money. On the other hand, the best handicapper I know is at best average as a bettor. He finishes ahead, but not nearly by an amount you would think is commensurate with his skill. It's incredibly easy to handicap well and not max a race. Having an 18-1 horse and not betting it to win, just playing it in verticals, for example. Coming up with the top selection but not being adept at assessing its winning chances, and thereby betting incorrectly is usually what "good handicapper/bad bettor" means. And the betting part only gets more complicated as you increase the combinations.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

The best horseplayer I know is at best a little above average handicapper, but in a singular class in assessing value. He rarely makes a betting mistake. Totally uncanny. And he makes a ton of money. On the other hand, the best handicapper I know is at best average as a bettor. He finishes ahead, but not nearly by an amount you would think is commensurate with his skill. It's incredibly easy to handicap well and not max a race. Having an 18-1 horse and not betting it to win, just playing it in verticals, for example. Coming up with the top selection but not being adept at assessing its winning chances, and thereby betting incorrectly is usually what "good handicapper/bad bettor" means. And the betting part only gets more complicated as you increase the combinations.

I think you do him a gross injustice by calling him a "little better than average handicapper". You don't become an expert in assessing value without top-notch handicapping skills, IMO.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by cj

You can do that just betting the favorite.

And most seem to agree that the "general public" is the handicapper that must be beat to be a winner. Matching their rate is a good starting point.

[rrpic6]

VALENTO: Hope this makes you feel like you are not alone.


2016-02-10 05:46:29 Bet Mahoning Valley 8 Superfecta $0.10 8 / 1 + 2 + 3 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 10 + 11 / 1 + 2 + 3 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 10 + 11 / 1 + 2 + 3 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 10 + 11 $33.60 2016-02-10 05:46:06 Bet Mahoning Valley 8 Trifecta $0.50 8 / 1 + 2 + 3 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 10 + 11 / 1 + 2 + 3 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 10 + 11 $28.00

MAHONING VALLEY RACE COURSE - February 10, 2016 - Race 8
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT - Thoroughbred
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs.
Five And One Half Furlongs On The Dirt
Track Record:
(Luckysdream - 1:02.65 - January 5, 2016)
Purse:
$17,000
Plus:
$15,000 OTF - Ohio Thoroughbred Fund
Available Money:
$32,000
Value of Race:
$17,000 1st $9,860, 2nd $3,400, 3rd $1,700, 4th $680, 5th $170, 6th $170, 7th $170, 8th $170, 9th $170, 10th
$170, 11th $170, 12th $170
Weather:
Cloudy
Track:
Fast
Off at:
4:06
Start:
Good for all
Video
Race
Replay
Last Raced Pgm Horse Name (Jockey) Wgt M/E PP Start 1/4 3/8 Str Fin Odds Comments
15Jan16
4
PEN
5
8 Mistevious (De Leon, Azael) 122 L 8 9 10
1/2
8
1/2
7
Head
1
1 1/4
3.10* late burst6p,in time
--- 9 Bragg Time (Hollingsworth, Brian) 122 - - 10 5 1
1 1/2
1
5
1
1/2
2
2
71.90 clear lead,gained 2nd
12Jan16
4
MVR
7
1 Shades of Light (Houghton, T.) 122 L 4 8 5
1 1/2
4
1
2
1/2
3
1 3/4
7.10 3w,bid,outfinished
26Jan16
1
MVR
3
6 Unbridled Fancy (Rivera, Luis) 122 L b 6 6 4
1
5
1 1/2
5
1/2
4
Neck
14.10 evenly
28Jan16
7
TP
5
5 Alittlebourbon (Leon, Sonny) 122 L b 5 7 8
Head
7
1
6
Head
5
Nose
14.30 belatedly wide
12Jan16
4
MVR
3
7 Reyoro (Pilares, Christian) 122 L f 7 1 7
2
10
2
8
1 1/2
6
1
13.40 failed to menace
23Jan16
5
MVR
2
2 Preachintothechoir (Gonzalez, Luis) 122 L bf 1 4 2
Head
2
1/2
3
3
7
1 1/4
4.70 chased rail,faded lane
26Jan16
1
MVR
2
11 Something Naughty (Hernandez, Luciano) 122 L b 12 2 3
1/2
3
1
4
1/2
8
2 1/2
3.90 stalked6w,weakened
9Dec15
3
MVR
3
10 Blueberry Bay (Kauffman, Ashley) 117
»
L 11 3 6
Head
6
Head
9
1 1/2
9
2 3/4
29.50 brief speed
--- 1A Springtime City (Mejias, Ricardo) 122 L b 9 12 9
Head
9
1/2
11
4
10
Neck
7.10 no factor
26Jan16
1
MVR
5
4 Ferragamo's Shiloh (Yaranga, Yuri) 122 L 3 10 12 11
2
10
3 1/2
11
5 1/2
93.50 showed little,
14Dec15
5
MVR
3
3 Notsofree (Paucar, Edgar) 122 L 2 11 11
6
12 12 12 3.40 outrun,
Fractional Times:
23.65 49.96
Final Time:
1:12.05
Split Times:
(26:31) (22:09)
Run-Up:
35 feet
Winner:
Mistevious, Bay Filly, by Stephen Got Even out of Grandiosa, by El Prado (IRE). Foaled Apr 17, 2013 in ON.
Breeder:
Adena Springs.
Winning Owner:
Polivka Equine Holdings LLC, Brushy Hill Enterprises LLC and Knudsen, J.
Total WPS Pool:
$39,970
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
8 Mistevious 8.20 5.00 3.60
9 Bragg Time 46.00 20.60
1 Shades of Light 4.60
Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff Pool
$2.00 Daily Double 7-8 16.60 5,310
$2.00 Exacta 8-9 430.00 39,694
$0.50 Trifecta 8-9-1 1,434.35 22,991
$0.10 Superfecta 8-9-1-6 3,354.34 17,362
$0.50 Pick 3 11-7-8 (3 correct) 41.35 4,767
$0.50 Pick 4 1/2/8-11-7-8 (4 correct) 57.90 10,40

RR

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by rrpic6

VALENTO: Hope this makes you feel like you are not alone.

It's why I use the all-button as often as I can. I've been beat like that so many times you'd think I'd have given up years ago.

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by cj

I can pick 37% winners betting every race at every track. Am I a good handicapper?

It depends on what your definition of good handicapper is.

Under the assumption that in the above scenario you are playing the Post Time Favorite where the average ROI is approximately 0.85 (and 1.00 is break-even) , "I" would label you not as a "good handicapper", but rather a "very good selector" of horses who will win a given race.

That said, others, including John Perrotta in the article, hold that a person can be a "good handicapper" to the exclusion of profitability. It would obviously be much better to describe a handicapper in terms of his/her ROI rather than by a subjective descriptive term, but we know THAT is not going to happen!