Having trouble making profitable bets?

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

...
Same type of calculation for superfectas. So ABC/ABC/ABCDEF/ABCDEFGHIJ means 3 horses can win the race, if one of them wins it can't finish second so only 2 horses can finish second. Say A wins, B places, that means neither can finish third or fourth, so there are only 4 possible fourth place finishers, and by the same logic 7 fourth place finishers. So the total combos are 3X2X4X7 = 168

AB/AB/ABCDEFG/ABCDEFGHIJ is 2X1X5X7 = 70 Once A and B hit the top two spots, they can't hit the third or fourth spot. In fact the more appropriate ticket is AB/AB/CDEFG/CDEFGHIJ, then the arithmetic is obvious.

A/BCE/ABCDEFGHIJ/ABCDEFGHIJ is 1X3X8X7 = 168 Same with this combination. The appropriate ticket is A/BCE/BCDEFGHIJ/BCDEFGHIJ to make the arithmetic obvious.

You can see the pattern. Once you assume a horse hits a respective hole, you subtract the horse from any other hole.

Thanks, after posting last night I reviewed your examples and just realized it was similar to boxing exacta and tri's with the added calculation step. Which is why after I viewed it from the bold part which you mentioned in the above, it became obvious as you stated. Including the horses when they couldn't be part of the win or place etc., initially through me off.

Now, this is partly off the topic but, I think is still related. I usually like to know what a bet is going to cost me (and thanks again) and approx. how much will be the payout to determine whether a bet is worth it. Again, I do play exacta or tri's just not very often anymore. The exacta payouts are provided by the tote board and my estimate of tri's is basically looking at the exacta and estimating that it's payout will be higher depending on the third place finishing odds but basically it will pay greater than the exacta.

Do you or anyone else reading this post have a good estimate for superfecta payouts since expected tri payouts are not provided?

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Thanks, after posting last night I reviewed your examples and just realized it was similar to boxing exacta and tri's with the added calculation step. Which is why after I viewed it from the bold part which you mentioned in the above, it became obvious as you stated. Including the horses when they couldn't be part of the win or place etc., initially through me off.

Now, this is partly off the topic but, I think is still related. I usually like to know what a bet is going to cost me (and thanks again) and approx. how much will be the payout to determine whether a bet is worth it. Again, I do play exacta or tri's just not very often anymore. The exacta payouts are provided by the tote board and my estimate of tri's is basically looking at the exacta and estimating that it's payout will be higher depending on the third place finishing odds but basically it will pay greater than the exacta.

Do you or anyone else reading this post have a good estimate for superfecta payouts since expected tri payouts are not provided?

I'm not a super player, and I wouldn't have an offhanded idea of how you calculate an honest pay for a super. It's especially not an attractive bet for me because of the 10 cent minimum. Anecdotally, based on the percentages it's pretty clear supers with the top choices are probably going to underpay, and the low probability supers will overpay, usually by quite a bit. But I'd also be interested in hearing other thoughts on betting supers. Not that I'm thinking about betting them, but I'm going to have to do the research for my book anyway.

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks, I might end up dabbling in it to see how it goes just haven't thought about a good strategy for attacking it. Since, my interest has been piqued only since yesterday.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

I'm not a super player, and I wouldn't have an offhanded idea of how you calculate an honest pay for a super. It's especially not an attractive bet for me because of the 10 cent minimum. Anecdotally, based on the percentages it's pretty clear supers with the top choices are probably going to underpay, and the low probability supers will overpay, usually by quite a bit. But I'd also be interested in hearing other thoughts on betting supers. Not that I'm thinking about betting them, but I'm going to have to do the research for my book anyway.

My thoughts:

The .10 has it's pros and cons. Con-obviously more people can "get in" for less and lower larger payouts.

One pro-it gives you the opportunity to weigh out your opinions. If I am 100% right, I can hit the sup for $X dollars. If 1 of my opinions is wrong, I can hit it for 40% of X.

I can cover for a dime on bomb combos etc.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Originally Posted by Football-horse420

I do hope to make a bit of a living of this/ salary!!

I do feel it important to illustrate the impact of a 20(+)% take on your wagers. If you were at a poker table with a 20% house rake on each and every wager, how would that impacat 10 players with $10,000 staked in the game? ... After about one hour, one player would remain with about $25,000 and the house would have $75k.

[formula_2002]

a discussion back almost 11 years ago.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...light=efficenc.

[Dave Schwartz]

Hajck Hillstrom, it is good to see you posting again.



Welcome back.

[johnhannibalsmith]

It's probably a little early in the game to effectively incorporate this way of thinking into actually betting, but I don't necessarily think that it is ever too early to begin to look at races this way with an eye towards developing your proficiency at doing it (and others have touched upon it in a roundabout way when discussing 'boxing' for example):

Try to evaluate the relative chances of the entrants in a given race and express it as a percentage. In other words, lay out, even if it is only in your mind as you look a race over, what percentage out of 100 each horse has of winning. I know that others will disagree (at least as far as going this route while still just hunting beginner books) and it also depends largely on the track and pools into which you are betting but more and more, for me anyway, there just has to be 'value' in a race to warrant wagering beyond simple entertainment plays. Often this mindset leads me into exotic pools in search of value, but for the sake of the concept in general, simply taking a bit of a stand and creating these percentages for yourself - what is in effect your own 'betting line' - will help to clarify for you just what and when to bet.

There are probably dozens of great threads here that can help expand on this idea, but ultimately what it comes down to is that each percentage (or range as is often the case for me) you assign to an entrant is then easily translated to what we recognize as parimutuel odds. From there, it becomes quite a bit easier to identify the horses that based upon your analysis are sitting at the tote representing 'value'. If you believe a horse has a roughly 20% chance of winning the race and give yourself a bottom price of 4-1 off of that opinion and see at post time that the tote is offering 6-1 or something, it becomes easier (for me anyway) to see that I don't need to be creative to find value in a pool, it's right there in the win pool.

This obviously isn't a way that is going to necessarily help you pick winners and again, if you struggle to even get close identifying the players in a race or the shape of a race in terms of dynamics and flow, then you will likely be well off the mark in assigning percentages. But if you feel as though you do a pretty solid job making sense of the past performances and see the race reasonably well before it runs but just can't seem to translate that into winning tickets - or more accurately winning sessions since you might nail the percentages and still tear up tickets because the winner didn't meet your criteria - it might be worth incorporating some aspect of this approach into your thinking at least to help in appreciating when to go and when to sit.

My six pesos without repeating something else in the thread (I think...) . Good luck.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

My thoughts:

The .10 has it's pros and cons. Con-obviously more people can "get in" for less and lower larger payouts.

One pro-it gives you the opportunity to weigh out your opinions. If I am 100% right, I can hit the sup for $X dollars. If 1 of my opinions is wrong, I can hit it for 40% of X.

I can cover for a dime on bomb combos etc.

This was my question .... How do you know what X is before post time?

Are the Super pools made available before post time?

And, is your assumption that you are always taking the entire pool?

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Thanks, after posting last night I reviewed your examples and just realized it was similar to boxing exacta and tri's with the added calculation step. Which is why after I viewed it from the bold part which you mentioned in the above, it became obvious as you stated. Including the horses when they couldn't be part of the win or place etc., initially through me off.

Now, this is partly off the topic but, I think is still related. I usually like to know what a bet is going to cost me (and thanks again) and approx. how much will be the payout to determine whether a bet is worth it. Again, I do play exacta or tri's just not very often anymore. The exacta payouts are provided by the tote board and my estimate of tri's is basically looking at the exacta and estimating that it's payout will be higher depending on the third place finishing odds but basically it will pay greater than the exacta.

Do you or anyone else reading this post have a good estimate for superfecta payouts since expected tri payouts are not provided?

It's more important to look at the third place finisher's ranking rather than odds. That is, if the third place horse is 6/1 and the third favorite it will pay less than if it was 6/1 and the fifth favorite.

As far as estimating payouts I only have an educated guess because every day I'm looking at results charts. Anyway I'm only interested in the likelihood that it will pay more than an acceptable minimum.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

This was my question .... How do you know what X is before post time?

Are the Super pools made available before post time?

And, is your assumption that you are always taking the entire pool?

Good question. However, what X was in my statement was not the pool but what I feel like betting on the "top" superfecta play. But yes, X is based on how big the pool is, how much I want to wager etc.

[thaskalos]

The only negative thing I can say about the 10-cent supers is that they are not a good fit for the short fields that we often see in today's game.

When confined to the large fields...the 10-cent super is the only way that I've ever been able to find where the player has a legitimate shot at a signer for a $14.40 investment. People say that the 10-cent super minimizes the player's chances of scooping up the entire superfecta pool...and that confuses me. Is the point of playing this game to scoop up the entire pool...or are we looking for a worthwhile return on our investment?

Play the 10-cent super in races where you dislike the favorite...and spread out liberally at the top of the wager. It is the opposite of what most players do...because they overestimate their ability to pick the winner...while underestimating their ability to eliminate some of the horses in the race. Try it...and you might thank me.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Good question. However, what X was in my statement was not the pool but what I feel like betting on the "top" superfecta play. But yes, X is based on how big the pool is, how much I want to wager etc.

Sorry, I'm just trying to get a handle on Super betting strategies and your response isn't making sense based on your previous response. I'm not following what the $X dollars or hit it for 40% of X is.

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

... One pro-it gives you the opportunity to weigh out your opinions. If I am 100% right, I can hit the sup for $X dollars. If 1 of my opinions is wrong, I can hit it for 40% of X.

I can cover for a dime on bomb combos etc.

Let's take an actual example from Turfway Park Race 5 today - 2/20/16.

11 horses and using HalvOnHorseracing's example (although his was 10 entries) ....

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

... AB/AB/ABCDEFG/ABCDEFGHIJ is 2X1X5X7 = 70 Once A and B hit the top two spots, they can't hit the third or fourth spot. In fact the more appropriate ticket is AB/AB/CDEFG/CDEFGHIJ, then the arithmetic is obvious. ...

The 5th race $0.10 super at TP was 12-8-3-9 for $23.32, the odds were:

(12 - 4/5); (8 - 7/1); (3 - 5/2) and (9 - 25/1).

With 70 combinations your cost is $7.00 which paid $23.32 which is less than a 5/2 straight win bet.

I couldn't find the super pool handle anywhere on my ADW. The 7/1 and the 25/1 fourth slot are pretty good long shots at most places. So, without knowing what the total super pool is at the time of your bet when would someone know it's a good bet?

The $1.00 exacta and tri paid $8.60 and $25.50, respectively.

Anyone wish to respond, it doesn't have to be from Emd4me?

[MNslappy]

Some of the best advice you'll see on this forum (and you'll see it over and over again) is to learn to PASS on a race you've put time into handicapping.

It sounds so simple ... it might be the simplest piece of advice you'll get, in theory, but it's one of the hardest in practice.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by Football-horse420

I have been handicapping horses for well over a year now and I seem to be missing something. I put 100 dollars a month into betting. I always bet with a past performances, I buy it a day in advance and really get into handicapping and look for things also before post time. I bet 10cent superfecta's usually 5 horse box bet, also bet quinellas, and show bets. At the end this really does not seem to be paying off if I'm lucky I brake even. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to put better bets together? What are my best bets to see improvement?
I do hope to make a bit of a living of this/ salary!! Any books a newbie like me should read?

Thanks for any and all help!!

If you don't look beyond what everyone else is doing, you won't make money. You are trying to hit some of the most difficult bets to cash on. You might try just Win bets for awhile. Find a race that is suitable to your knowledge. See how you do.