Rich Perloff on his way to winning Pick 6 at Spa today.

[SandyW]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

he doesnt mean its easier to pick winners if you don't bet, what he means (and i'm guessing here) is that if you're not betting, you can pick anything you want and it doesnt matter, in other words, its easier. Also, another part of what he's saying is that if you're not actually betting, you can throw in longshots without worrying about spending actual money on those picks. Perloff had two winners that paid close to 20 bucks, but if he was betting his ticket, if he was betting his actual money, who's to say that he would have included "bombs" while throwing out shorter priced horses in their stead?

Rich is getting credit for "selecting" the pick 6, but because he didn't bet it, we will never know if he might have altered his ticket in some way if actual money was involved.

Also, if Rich is not normally an 80 dollar per race bettor, or he's not normally betting 80 bucks on a pick 6, than he's getting credit he doesnt really deserve.

If i came on here and structured a 20k pick 6 ticket and it won and showed a nice profit, do i deserve credit for "releasing" the winner? No. Now, Rich didn't spend 20k obviously, but he spent money he doesn't normally bet, just on a smaller scale as my example. So, in that way, he sort of needs to have actually made the score to get credit......but, that doesn't seem to be the case, the industry is heaping credit on him anyway.

You are exactly right, I make up a lot of tickets that I don't bet and throw in all sorts of horses, but the ticket is above what I normally bet. So should I take credit when a ticket hits that I didn't bet?
It is so, so, easy when you don't put up the cash.

[5k-claim]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

he doesnt mean its easier to pick winners if you dont bet, what he means (and i'm guessing here) is that if you're not betting, you can pick anything you want and it doesnt matter, in other words, its easier. Also, another part of what he's saying is that if you're not actually betting, you can throw in longshots without worrying about spending actual money on those picks. Perloff had two winners that paid close to 20 bucks, but if he was betting his ticket, if he was betting his actual money, who's to say that he would have included "bombs" while throwing out shorter priced horses in their stead?

Rich is getting credit for "selecting" the pick 6, but because he didnt bet it, we will never know if he might have altered his ticket in some way if actual money was involved.

Also, if Rich is not normally an 80 dollar per race bettor, or he's not normally betting 80 bucks on a pick 6, than he's getting credit he doesnt really deserve.

If i came on here and structured a 20k pick 6 ticket and it won and showed a nice profit, do i deserve credit for "releasing" the winner? No. Now, Rich didnt spend 20k obviously, but he spent money he doesnt normally bet, just on a smaller scale as my example. So, in that way, he sort of needs to have actually made the score to get credit......but, that doesnt seem to be the case, the industry is heaping credit on him anyway.

So... who is more likely to put together a winning $80 ticket:

(a) a handicapper who bets on his selections
(b) a handicapper who does not bet on his selections

As a potential consumer of expert selections, isn't this a question I should be asking?

.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by 5k-claim

So... who is more likely to put together a winning $80 ticket:

(a) a handicapper who bets on his selections
(b) a handicapper who does not bet on his selections

As a potential consumer of expert selections, isn't this a question I should be asking?

.

I would say that with all things being equal, the player who does bet might be more likely to put up a winning chalk ticket and the person who doesnt bet might be more likely to put up a longer priced ticket since he doesnt actually have to invest real cash in horses who are really unlikely to win.

But, i would imagine in the short term, there's really not much of a difference.

[5k-claim]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I would say that with all things being equal, the player who does bet might be more likely to put up a winning chalk ticket and the person who doesnt bet might be more likely to put up a longer priced ticket since he doesnt actually have to invest real cash in horses who are really unlikely to win.

But, i would imagine in the short term, there's really not much of a difference.

Then why not give Perloff the credit?

.

[feelup1963]

THE QUESTION IS DID HE PLAY WHAT THEY ARE TOUTING.IT IS EASY TO PLACE A MYTHICAL TICKET/BET.TOUTS WILL BE TOUTS!!!. I CAN TIP/TOUT A 99/1 OUTSIDER,BUT BETTING WITH MY MONEY IS ANOTHER THING.NOT UNTIL THESE GUYS PUT UP REAL TICKETS THAT THEY BET,THEN ISSUE THEM CREDIT.

[5k-claim]

Originally Posted by feelup1963

THE QUESTION IS DID HE PLAY WHAT THEY ARE TOUTING.IT IS EASY TO PLACE A MYTHICAL TICKET/BET.TOUTS WILL BE TOUTS!!!. I CAN TIP/TOUT A 99/1 OUTSIDER,BUT BETTING WITH MY MONEY IS ANOTHER THING.NOT UNTIL THESE GUYS PUT UP REAL TICKETS THAT THEY BET,THEN ISSUE THEM CREDIT.

THEN FEEL FREE TO PUT UP A MYTHICAL $80 TICKET THAT HITS THE PICK 6. YOU GET 1 MYTHICAL TICKET PER DAY. THANK YOU.

.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I would say that with all things being equal, the player who does bet might be more likely to put up a winning chalk ticket and the person who doesnt bet might be more likely to put up a longer priced ticket since he doesnt actually have to invest real cash in horses who are really unlikely to win.

But, i would imagine in the short term, there's really not much of a difference.

This debate all depends on the individual. For instance, some handicappers will actually do better (on paper) if they don't bet the picks. Why? Because psychologically if they know they are going to bet they may subconsciously pick horses that are too predictive. In other words, they take too conservative of an approach.

The Wizard told me once that his picks did better when he wasn't betting. However, some years later he did start to bet because he realized that he could win money and supplement his income.

I personally bet all of my Best Bets unless the odds are much shorter than I want, but the bottom line is, it doesn't matter if a public handicapper bets or nots. Either his picks are good or they aren't.

I know some of you think that Andy Serling does a good job with his NYRA picks and analysis. I think he does. Like most of us in the business who offer picks for every race, I doubt he bets every horse. But whether he bets or not or how much he bets is is completely inconsequential to anyone who checks his picks or video analysis. Either you think he's doing a good job or you don't. Either he has a good day or he doesn't. Either he's on a hot streak or he isn't.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by feelup1963

THE QUESTION IS DID HE PLAY WHAT THEY ARE TOUTING.IT IS EASY TO PLACE A MYTHICAL TICKET/BET.TOUTS WILL BE TOUTS!!!. I CAN TIP/TOUT A 99/1 OUTSIDER,BUT BETTING WITH MY MONEY IS ANOTHER THING.NOT UNTIL THESE GUYS PUT UP REAL TICKETS THAT THEY BET,THEN ISSUE THEM CREDIT.

As a longtime professional handicapper, I can give you some insight. First of all, Perloff wasn't hired by TVG so he can be a professional gambler who just happens to work for TVG. He is an analyst and his job is to give his insight into each race. It would actually be pretty odd if a channel like TVG did not have analysts.

But let me tell you a scenario that has happened to me many times, and I've done TV analyst work,too. Let's use my Meadowlands picks that are on www.ustrotting.com, free to the public. I've been doing these picks for 17 years. During that time I have picked certain longshot exotics that paid huge that I did not have. Why? Because I didn't bet it the right way. For instance, say I picked a horse that paid $25 to win and my third and fourth ranked horses completed a trifecta that paid $1,000. But I bet the horse to win and boxed my top two picks in the exacta, so I just won the win bet.

The next day I get several emails from happy people who say, "Hey, Pandy, thanks for the $1,000 trifecta, I keyed that $25 winners over the others. Did you have it?"

Now, since I didn't play it the right way, for whatever reason, does that make it a bad pick? Well, I can tell you from many years of experience, to the people who hit it, they are thrilled beyond your imagination and I think that means that I did a pretty good job.

[feelup1963]

I GIVE YOU A LOT OF RESPECT BECAUSE I AM NOT A HARNESS PLAYER,BEING WEB SURFER I CAME ACROSS YOUR ARTICLE,YOU ARE ONE OF THE BEST .I USE YOUR ARTICLE TO COMPARE AND CONTRAST THE M/L MAKER.YOU ARE TURNING ME INTO A HARNESS RACING FAN/PLAYER.THANK U KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK.

[feelup1963]

JOHN LIES -$160.00
3RD:2
4TH:2-4-7-10
5TH:4-5-9-2
6TH:8
7TH:6-9-2-8-1
8TH:8
MIKE JOYCE-$90.00
3RD:5
4TH:1-9-10
5TH:2-4-5-9-10
6TH:3
7TH:1-3-6
8TH:8

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by pandy

This debate all depends on the individual. For instance, some handicappers will actually do better (on paper) if they don't bet the picks. Why? Because psychologically if they know they are going to bet they may subconsciously pick horses that are too predictive. In other words, they take too conservative of an approach.

The Wizard told me once that his picks did better when he wasn't betting. However, some years later he did start to bet because he realized that he could win money and supplement his income.

I personally bet all of my Best Bets unless the odds are much shorter than I want, but the bottom line is, it doesn't matter if a public handicapper bets or nots. Either his picks are good or they aren't.

I know some of you think that Andy Serling does a good job with his NYRA picks and analysis. I think he does. Like most of us in the business who offer picks for every race, I doubt he bets every horse. But whether he bets or not or how much he bets is is completely inconsequential to anyone who checks his picks or video analysis. Either you think he's doing a good job or you don't. Either he has a good day or he doesn't. Either he's on a hot streak or he isn't.

Some great points here.

To touch on your points in post 113, i think there's a difference between betting your picks wrong and losing because of "bad betting" and not betting because you're giving out a sequence that you can't afford to play in real life.

If Rich Perloff consistently wagers on Pick 6 tickets in real life that are 80 dollars or higher, than he gets credit from me as he picked the pick 6, but just didnt happen to have this particular one. If he didnt bet because he doesnt normally invest 80 dollars into the pick6, than i dont think he should get nearly as much credit.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by 5k-claim

Then why not give Perloff the credit?

.

I'll give him credit if he's normally a player who invests his own money into the pick 6 and 80 dollars isnt much of an investment for him and what he normally bets. If he doesnt wager on Pick 6s with his own money and or 80 dollars is way beyond his budget for any particular wager, i dont want to give him credit for hitting that bet. I'll give him credit for some excellent handicapping, but that's as far as we should go.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by feelup1963

I GIVE YOU A LOT OF RESPECT BECAUSE I AM NOT A HARNESS PLAYER,BEING WEB SURFER I CAME ACROSS YOUR ARTICLE,YOU ARE ONE OF THE BEST .I USE YOUR ARTICLE TO COMPARE AND CONTRAST THE M/L MAKER.YOU ARE TURNING ME INTO A HARNESS RACING FAN/PLAYER.THANK U KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK.

Thank you. That's part of my job, to help market the sport.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Originally Posted by TheEdge07

Did Rich give a reason on why the ticket wasnt played?

No, but he did respond with this to me a few minutes after the Pik6 sequence was completed.

"Strangely enough...I'm actually a little apprehensive about the blowback I'll get for NOT having played the ticket when I "out" myself from the Handicapsule tomorrow.

Still...I like to think I'm consistent. When people ask me "Do you play your tickets?" I always respond: "Some I do...and some I don't. And I'm NEVER going to tell you which are which."

If people really think that I take my on-air prognostications LESS seriously when my money isn't on the line...I'd like to offer today's results as evidence to the contrary."

Fair play from where I sit......

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Hajck Hillstrom

No, but he did respond with this to me a few minutes after the Pik6 sequence was completed.

"Strangely enough...I'm actually a little apprehensive about the blowback I'll get for NOT having played the ticket when I "out" myself from the Handicapsule tomorrow.

Still...I like to think I'm consistent. When people ask me "Do you play your tickets?" I always respond: "Some I do...and some I don't. And I'm NEVER going to tell you which are which."

If people really think that I take my on-air prognostications LESS seriously when my money isn't on the line...I'd like to offer today's results as evidence to the contrary."

Fair play from where I sit......

I dont think he's taking it less seriously, that's not the issue. His job depends on ....well, sort of knowing something about racing and by releasing winners, that accomplishes that for him.

The issue is being able to "get credit" for 80 dollar tickets on Pick 6s when he might not risk 80 dollars on this type of play in real life. Now, like i said earlier, if Richard is a bettor who quite often will toss 80 bucks or more into a pick 6 or a pick 5 part wheel, than i will give him full credit even if he didnt wager on this particular winning Pick 6.