How'd you get your start? Any tips for a noob?

[TheStuntman]

Hi everyone. I finally have posting power after almost a month wait. A little about myself, I am a 28 year old Korean-American, fully licensed CPA, living in Orange County 3 miles away from Los Alamitos race track. I've always been interested in wagering and gambling in nature as well as numbers and statistics. I used to play a lot of online poker in a semi-professional capacity until recently.

I've always been interested in horse racing. I'd like to try my hand at handicapping. I've done some research on my own but there's a lot of blanks. I understand a lot of the basic terms and methods, but the main reason I wanted to join this forum is to learn more and more about handicapping. I went to Del Mar yesterday with some friends and it was a blast. I brought the brisnet pps to help me handicap but it didn't go so well.

I am wondering how a lot of you got your start. What was your A-ha moment that since then you started to really improve your picks. Any pitfalls/tips that you'd like to pass on to a noob? What's your average bet? I have a lot of money saved up, I'd like to start with a 1k bankroll. With said bankroll what should be my average bet for each race? What type of bets should I be placing? Do you guys sometimes skip races because the odds aren't there? I'm sure I'll have a lot of questions in the upcoming months. If you guys have skype or gchat, I'd like to talk to someone on there if you like. Thanks for reading.

[wiffleball whizz]

Cut right to the chase......timeformus....it's makes dummies like me look like a genius.....welcome to the wonderful world of horse racing.....

[JJMartin]

Originally Posted by TheStuntman

Hi everyone. I finally have posting power after almost a month wait. A little about myself, I am a 28 year old Korean-American, fully licensed CPA, living in Orange County 3 miles away from Los Alamitos race track. I've always been interested in wagering and gambling in nature as well as numbers and statistics. I used to play a lot of online poker in a semi-professional capacity until recently.

I've always been interested in horse racing. I'd like to try my hand at handicapping. I've done some research on my own but there's a lot of blanks. I understand a lot of the basic terms and methods, but the main reason I wanted to join this forum is to learn more and more about handicapping. I went to Del Mar yesterday with some friends and it was a blast. I brought the brisnet pps to help me handicap but it didn't go so well.

I am wondering how a lot of you got your start. What was your A-ha moment that since then you started to really improve your picks. Any pitfalls/tips that you'd like to pass on to a noob? What's your average bet? I have a lot of money saved up, I'd like to start with a 1k bankroll. With said bankroll what should be my average bet for each race? What type of bets should I be placing? Do you guys sometimes skip races because the odds aren't there? I'm sure I'll have a lot of questions in the upcoming months. If you guys have skype or gchat, I'd like to talk to someone on there if you like. Thanks for reading.

Improve your picks or improve your ROI? Don't bet on the post time favorite, the morning line favorite, the top jockey, the top trainer, the top speed figure or the top anything. That's just a basic tip to start

[JustRalph]

Remember, you are playing against the crowd standing around you when you are at Del Mar. And every other person that joins the pool, whether it be online or via telephone. You have to have an edge. Something they don't have. It's damn near impossible to have better info than the guy next to you. Everybody has access to the same stuff online etc.

Your job is to analyze or glean some info that others don't have. Very very hard today. Tougher than ever.

You must also take a few risks others don't. Practice often before you start using real money.

Don't drill down too deep, you'll end up on the fav 90% of the time. Everybody knows who the favorite is they just look at the tote board.

Watch the more engaged public cappers, of which there are few. The NYRA guys are the place to start.

Listen to Steve Byk's radio show
http://www.thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/

But beware the older guests who still think it's 1975. They have made their bones, but often are competely out of touch with the computerized guys.

Read Steve Crist's "exotic betting" as a CPA it will be right your alley

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by wiffleball whizz

Cut right to the chase......timeformus....it's makes dummies like me look like a genius.....welcome to the wonderful world of horse racing.....

In six months everybody will be using it. Right back to square one. Everybody will once again have the same data. Okay, maybe a year. That's good for them and those who have worked hard to put it together. I admire them. But, you better pound it now.......

[CincyHorseplayer]

Read everything but believe in only what you think.Bet within your means.I haven't achieved great heights but I know my strength has always been believing in my own opinion.Influences?Absolutely.Bet when you feel strongly.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

....paying your dues. Go to the track and pay attention to the winners...they love to share how smart they are. Read the works of Mark Cramer. Be the contrairian. The fewer people that agree with you assure a greater payout when you are right. Pik3's,4's,5's & 6's Exactas,Trifectas, & Superfectas. Focus on dime and four-bit base wagers.

Remember, it is a different day and age than when I first waded into the exacta pools... every wager cost $5 back then. It is easier to wheel & key these days.

[TheStuntman]

Originally Posted by Hajck Hillstrom

....paying your dues. Go to the track and pay attention to the winners...they love to share how smart they are. Read the works of Mark Cramer. Be the contrairian. The fewer people that agree with you assure a greater payout when you are right. Pik3's,4's,5's & 6's Exactas,Trifectas, & Superfectas. Focus on dime and four-bit base wagers.

Remember, it is a different day and age than when I first waded into the exacta pools... every wager cost $5 back then. It is easier to wheel & key these days.

Thank you all for the advice. I will check out the books that are recommended.

Whiffle can you give me a link please, I'd like to check it out. Is it a forum or a method?

Hajck Hillstrom can you elaborate on the bolded. I saw that you are able to bet a dime at del mar but I wasn't sure how to. Can you explain what they are what your goal is when you make said bet and how you win and what the pay off is.

I tried doing exacta boxes and I wiffed on all of them haha.

[JustRalph]

Start here

http://paceadvantage.com/forum/showt...ght=Timeformus

[TheStuntman]

Oh so it's a new PP like drf and brisnet.

[cordep17]

The main facet of my game is painting a picture.
I let myself get creative with my handicapping. One of the above posters said look for an edge, and I think creativity is mine. I have a process, which I will explain now, but what I think is the most important thing to do is put yourself in the trainer's shoes and try to figure out what he is thinking with the previous placements, works, and current placement of the particular horse.
1. I check class (as far as I am concerned, if a horse has ever achieved success at the level of today's race, they are classy enough). Of course, you have to find out if the circumstances in which they were successful at the level were normal. If you aren't in to watching replays, field size can be indicative of the circumstances.
2. I check speed If a horse has usually at least 2 speed figures that meet the par for the specific race, you at least know that at their best, they can contend the requirements of the race type. Of course, the circumstances in which those figures are earned matters. With 2yo and 3yo speed figures usually mean less. They can really come out of their shell from race to race.
3. I check form The key to the races, and usually where the creativity plays a role. Half of the battle is finding out who is primed and ready to fire. Which horse(s) is/are ready to peak and deliver that great stretch run. I wish I could pull up some PPs, but I didn't save the PPs and the race was a few weeks ago. I posted my picks on this site.http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=104522
Race 3
I liked the 2 at 22-1. If you would like to, you could look up the race and find the horse's name and look at what I am talking about.
The angle on the pick: it was a horse trained by a trainer who was yet to get a win. A really small barn with a limited amount of starts. The horse's breeding was nothing special, to me at least. Despite this, he started him off at a pretty dang high level. He was destroyed. Whatever. If a horse is especially outmatched don't expect them to do anything. In their previous start, they may of run a time sufficient to perhaps get second in a particular race. If you are analyzing the final times, the horse might look like a dream at 40-1, so you make a bet on that horse waiting to cash. Instead, he finishes next to last 20lengths behind the winner. Too big of class hikes aren't usually a good idea. just food for thought. Back to the story
He dropped him a little bit. Still heavily outclassed, he was destroyed. Brought him back again at a slightly less of level. Still heavily outclassed, put to sleep. Somewhere down the line the horse goes back to the farm for an extended layoff. In either the first start back or the second start back, he found his way into the lowest of MC ranks at FP. The horse woke up and ran 7 or so lengths behind the winner. This was the first positive out of the horse. With a bunch of career maidens in the race, I made the decision that this horse had some mean upside. While all of the other horses form had already been determined, this one's potential was still to be determined. Generally, smaller barns aren't being as rushed as some of the bigger trainers to get a horse into shape, so they race them into shape. This was I believe the 3rd off of the layoff. Perhaps the horse could make up that 7 length loss, considering I thought it highly likely he wasn't as fit as he would be in this upcoming race. Usually third off of the layoff is when a horse being worked into shape is the sharpest.

Ultimately, he got second behind my #1 choice, and I hit the fat exacta at the link.
I think the best part of handicapping is when you can be creative and paint a picture of what you think will happen and have it actually happen.

4. I check pace I won't drag on much longer. Horses have their running styles that they like to stick to. Most of the time, trainers aren't trying to take them out of their element. They want their horse to be as comfortable in a race as possible. Thus, the manner in which the horse has run in the past is usually the same manner that he will run in in the future. Throw three horses that love the lead together in the same race, and they will most likely run each other out, setting the race up for a closer. In vice versa, there may be only one need the lead type in the race. If he is good enough to be at the class, he can usually steal the race by setting slow fractions and having a lot of run in the stretch. General premise.

Hopefully this helps. I love talking to people about handicappin'




Here is the link to the 2, Kodi's April
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...199&registry=T

Can't control what the trainer does. Rather than returning one step up or at the same level, he threw him to the wolves in a special weight race.
Can't fix stupid
Horses aren't always in top form. He made a mistake with a hot horse.

[wiffleball whizz]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

In six months everybody will be using it. Right back to square one. Everybody will once again have the same data. Okay, maybe a year. That's good for them and those who have worked hard to put it together. I admire them. But, you better pound it now.......

I was thinking that too driving 2 hours home from work tOnight but then I realized that there will still be the dummies who know it all and dont buy it.....I hope for cj sake everybody buys it.....I'll just waltz back over to the standardbred section when this happens!!!

[Robert Goren]

To me there are two ways to make money at the track. The first is concentrate on circuit. Learn everything you can about it and its trainers. Study the trainers, especially the leaders in starters. Learn how often they like race a horse, how many WOs they like to have between races. Study the surface bias. Learn the strengths and weakness of the jockeys. This is a lot work and you must do it almost everyday.
The second is look for rare patterns that the public ignores because a horse who fits comes along so seldom. Look up the posts of pondman. This not a short cut to wealth either and requires a lot study.
Playing poker was a lot less work.

[pondman]

The thing I recommend to everyone is pick a type of race and study it. There are types of races I play. And there are types of races I avoid. And don't get emotional about a horse. I don't recommend bouncing back and forth between Del Mar and Los Alamitos. That's too wide of a spectrum at first. Handicapping a high end Grade 1 at Del Mar is much different than attempting to pick a $3,200 claimer at LA. Spend enough time at this and you should be able to develop spots that you have superior knowledge. And bet those spots.

The first thing I would do is collect data every day for awhile. The key to playing the game is having a rough estimate of potential return on a bet. It's my own belief that in the long run many races do not offer enough return.

If I were to give a preference to a handicapping method, I want to know how much a winner is going to make. And I mean the actual dollar amount. Don't assume that a Grade 1 pays more than a Grade 2. Or that a $10,000 claimer pays the winner more than a $8,000 claimer. So it's important to read through the conditions of a race and if you can of past races. I would read the Charts everyday.

You'll also have to accept that you'll lose races. That's why you need a consistent bet size of about 3%. That would put you in the $25-30 range.

If you are going to play S. Cal I think you are at the right place to learn. You probably should learn about Pace Handicapping.

[Fingal]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

To me there are two ways to make money at the track. The first is concentrate on circuit. Learn everything you can about it and its trainers. Study the trainers, especially the leaders in starters. Learn how often they like race a horse, how many WOs they like to have between races. Study the surface bias. Learn the strengths and weakness of the jockeys. This is a lot work and you must do it almost everyday.
The second is look for rare patterns that the public ignores because a horse who fits comes along so seldom. Look up the posts of pondman. This not a short cut to wealth either and requires a lot study.
Playing poker was a lot less work.

At the end of the day save your Bris printouts or Racing Form & that evening go back over WHY a horse won. It's how one learns- i.e. I may have lost this race but why did I lose ? Was there a trainer move, speed or pace pattern I missed ? Conversely why did you win ? What did you look for ?
By losing one can learn much if they are willing to find out why & seeing if those attributes are in future winners.

This is just like any profession like Doctor, Dentist, Lawyer, Architect or Engineer. There one just doesn't get their degree, start their practice & that's it. Instead they are constantly educating themselves with new developments, new concepts. Same here.