Official Picks for Friday March 17th, 2017
Race 1: Process of who do you hate the most here.....Moneybrook will be loose BUT Moneybrook has never ever ever, rebroke in a race. 1st out, was under a Taylor Rice hammerlock early, had Double Mane, the need the lead weak terrible DOUBLE MANE was her competition at the 1/4. Double Mane slowed down and Moneybrook was able to win with no competition. Was bet HARD that day and came from the Matties so you could assume their money was on their runner. Has disappointed ever since. 2nd out was outsprinted for the lead but rated till the 1/4, was set down and barely finished evenly while losing many lengths (no rebrake there). Race 3, loose for 3/8, then got some company by the Legendary Don't Blame Her (who has to go to FL and then MVR to continue racing) but couldn't rebrake there. Race 4: Good speed, loose and comfortable. Got run down by a bit better runner, a more respectable effort. Again, couldn't rebrake solidly. She did stay in the 2 1/2 path around the turn, not sure if that was jockey strategy but something to look out for. Then, last out, good natural speed but hung 4 wide. That was a race w 6 speeds in it, or 7 speeds. Ran a respectable but tiring 7th. If she only ran her last race and that was all I knew about her, I'd bet her and move on to race 2. However, that is not the case. I have doubts due to her prior races. I rewatched her last race replay 10 times. Focusing on her and the 10 in that race, #5 today Miss Swisher.
Miss Swisher was smacked by her foe to her inside at the gate and knocked off balance. The jock, reacted and started driving hard. Miss Swisher was 1 of only 2 closers in that field but somehow, no one told this jock
and he acted as if the race was 2F at Los Al. He wasted energy reserves sending hard to catch up. Guess what, the horse made up ground into a good 1st quarter and then he started slightly rating from the mid to late backstretch, all the while in NO MAN'S LAND 6 wide. Moneybrook was the 4 wide presser in a 4 horse duel but poor Miss Swisher was chasing 6 wide in....you guessed it No MAN'S LAND. Yes, both horses wasted energy reserves and went real wide but I think Miss Swisher would've ran a much better race if the jockey just sat back after the slow start, tucked and asked for run at the 1/4. Fast forward, we hit the lane and Moneybrook understandably tires and Miss Swisher carries on with heart on the wrong lead. Yes, she was passed but that was a fresher runner (jock who rode better and saved more).
In case your wondering what jock was in No Man's Land yet again, ding ding ding, Eric Cancel is right! You win! You win a chance to bet Miss Swisher back and have your heart ripped out as Eric Cancel misrides another one possibly at 1:20.
I know I am glutton for punishment but
I will officially select # 
in race 1 as 5 1/2 can be tricky sometimes on the inner. Jocks send harder and horses sometimes get used up harder. I see the 1 loose. The 3 7 and 8 chasing outside. MY HOPE, MY PRAYER, is that Eric Cancel is left with no decisions to make. Meaning, I hope the outside chasers force him to stay relatively inside AND they force him to rate and GO at about the 5/16 (and not the 1/2 or 9/16). The key IMO to this race is 1) the track bias-who knows what will happen after being off for 4 days and 2) will Eric blow another one? Like he did with tons the best Beach Hut in Sunday's 2nd at 9.60/1.
I feel like the 2 was so dressed up in that maiden win but has a shot if she gets a pocket trip AND simply outslows the 1 home in the last 1/8 (happened in maiden, why not here as well?) while Cancel finds mine fields and runs on too late. 3 is an auto toss. I don't like Irad's horse but she must be used defensively in the Pick 5. Isn't a speed anymore (maiden win) and can't rally much at all. Can win if again, sits pocket, outslows the 1 home while Cancel finds a mine field/then runs on too late. 6 is an auto toss. 7 is an auto toss. Not enamoured with the 8. Think this horse is going the wrong way BUT I can see the logic in the cutback against a leader who can't rebrake well. Is the last horse to cover in the Pick 5. 5 is the official pick. 1248 as covers.
Race 3: 2 real A's for me here. If RR's horse improves, is the most logical choice. Was off 3 lengths slow first out and got a very good education (ate a ton of dirt, drafted and kept on late). Was kind of choked on gallop out. I like to see a good gallop out on a stretch out. I marked him as average to slightly below average size. Dam's 2 kids were all Dirt Sprint. Those are the concerns but medicine circles do Trump all logic so is a live runner. My official pick though will be a horse with some value (hopefully), #
Seat of Honor. The 1, 2 and 6 all come out of the same race. They all ran into what I think is a future STAKES horse and that day, had the most intense GOLD RAIL, ANTI WIDE BIAS of the meet IMHO. Seat of Honor got the worst of it that day. Was hung wide on both turns and had the heart of Rocky. Kept punching on. Gets a better post. Could sit a nice pocket behind the 1&5 or 4th inside if the 5 clears. The rail runner is a bit of a hanger and I hope Irad remembers his last trip on this horse as Irad was passive (shocker), the horse got rank and almost hit the rail. I hope Irad goes a bit, makes the 5 work and sets up the 2. If the 2 scratches, I'll pass as I am sure RR horse will be overbet.
Race 4: Not in love with many of these. Will be using many in here to get by but for the thread, I will re-bet back a horse that I bet last time at monster odds but disappointed. Not in love with this horse but could be forgotton on the board, needs the right trip from an apprentice but is worth a flyer. Loyal Heart #
in race 4. Yes, the 9 and 6 are lone speeds. Yes, the 6 can win easy. This sounds crazy but I hope they make it a crawl. I get the feeling Loyal Heart runs better in slow paced races (see race 2 back) and this horse's connections were experimenting with off the pace runs. Might get out better today and sit the garden spot 3rd on a slow pace AND finish. Worth a stab at double digit odds.
Race 5: I bet both Decorator Jenn and North End first out. Torn here, using both equally in Pick 5. For the thread, going with #
I am such a Hector Diaz fan so I can't go elsewhere
. I think she wires on the cutback to 1M and the lead while Zeppole plays policewoman on any outside mover's chances. I figure North End gets the usual solid rate and finish ride by Irad but just might be too late here.
Race 8: Like three horses in here for the late P4. The 4 mostly with the 26 mixed in. Anydayismyday is a good example of newly turned 4 year olds with old 2 year old/early season 3 year old pace and speed figs/performance figs. If you projected the improvement in her last, you cashed. She was no nice visually early and mid race and because she kind of tired a smidgen late, I think she needed one. Because of that train of logic, I think she will improve and win here solidly. #
race #8. If the 6 and 2 hook, she can win by 5 or more. If the 6 is left alone and jogs, can steal it (if the 6 jogs early, that means the 2 is in the pocket, if the 2 is in the pocket, then the 4 might get shuffled-happens quite often at NYRA). If the 6 runs just fast enough where she tires a lot, the 2 is solid enough to win easy if the 4 doesn't fire.
Race 9: I like RR's horse. Not for the medicine circles but for her subtle improvement 2 back and visible improvement in her last. #
race #9. Two back was sent and got cut off by a clearing foe at the start. In a route, that takes away some finish. Then got started and stopped 2 additional times early. Again, takes away finish. Showed heart to finish in that 1st route.
Next time out, showed excellent gate speed, was on minus rail for most of the race. Got beat by an in form, with the bias horse that I bet. Had a visual burst into the lane till the 1/16. Stalks off 2 garbage speeds in the 3&7 and under the running in motion 8 horse. I actually fear the Contessa, not the fav thats drawn outside but the FTS he has in there at huge off odds. Will use her as a cover in the picks.
Welcome back NYRA and if you actually got through all of this and didn't miss the 1st race, GOD BLESS YOU
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, B= 
in Race 9 drew a bad post @ 2/1ml, but so did his connections, who scratched him. Wanted to connect r6 to r9 in a pick 4, prior to the scratch.
