The G3 Schuylerville Stakes: An Overview Of The Race

[Bob S.]

The opening day of the Spa is just a couple days away, and with it comes the Grade 3 Schuylerville Stakes for 2-year-old fillies. This year's field is deep, and I've written a race analysis and pedigree piece for it, with selections as well. Who do you like to win and why?

http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/07/2...w-of-the-race/

[Buckeye]

Positively Royal

She's very fast with a bullet and Castellano and Pletcher.

Storm Cat

[letswastemoney]

The fact that Positively Royal is bred for distance and already succeeded is a good sign...

...but with that said, any of these fillies could jump up significantly here. Juvenile speed figures aren't stagnant. These are the kind of horses, recent maiden winners in their career debuts, that are most likely to change overnight.

[Bob S.]

It's telling that Pletcher sat another talented filly, Tonasah. who was probable for the race, for Positively Royal. With a clean break in her maiden score, she may have won by more. And yes, most of these Schuylerville runners can make huge improvements and win this race...they are just 2-year-olds very early in their maturation. The pace of this race can set it up for almost anyone of these as well.

[Robert Fischer]

I'll be interested in the odds and how the tote board opens.

Will we see a big player crush Positively Royal down to 3-5 to open? (Like they often do, in order to discourage public money and encourage a drift up in odds near even money?)
Or will Saratoga's pools be too big?

I certainly wouldn't call her a 'lock', but she is an exciting prospect.

[Bob S.]

I like Banree as well. I hear that Ward feels stronger about her than Moment Is Right. My problem is that Positively Royal's speed on her inside may take her wide into the first turn, because she is fast too. Decked Out is very talented, and Areolite had all sorts of trouble in the Debutante Stakes. If the speed collapses, they can definitely pick up the pieces. Should be a great race, not like last year's two-horse one, in my opinion.

[letswastemoney]

After going over it again...

Decked Out ran well last time. It didn't matter that Moment is Right turned her back because her lead was uncontested.

If another horse can pressure Moment is Right, Decked Out should kick in.

[Robert Fischer]

Andy Serling noted a great stat for Pletcher in these situations.
Wining the lion's share of these races, but the ROI of the bettors is poor.

Seems to fit well to me.

I think 8/5 would be starting to get into a '+' ROI on this one. Expecting even money.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I'll be interested in the odds and how the tote board opens.

Will we see a big player crush Positively Royal down to 3-5 to open? (Like they often do, in order to discourage public money and encourage a drift up in odds near even money?)
Or will Saratoga's pools be too big?

I certainly wouldn't call her a 'lock', but she is an exciting prospect.

[rastajenk]

Positively last.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Positively last.

Never trust a Bernardini (except in slop) has always been my logic...but I almost fell into the hype.

Never again!