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01-16-2019, 02:16 PM
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#91
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,594
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete
Stop while you're behind.
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I should put this on my bathroom mirror. Might save myself a lot of headaches opening my mouth when I shouldn't. Not just about racing but everything!
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01-16-2019, 02:56 PM
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#92
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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2nd that. My foot fits so snug in my mouth, my tongue's shaped like a bunion.
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01-16-2019, 09:41 PM
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#93
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 845
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
No. I think that 6 groups account for $1.6b or a little more. (Someone posted on PA a recent estimate that was a little higher.)
They aren't all doing $625. One admitted to it, and that included all his wagering in N.A.
I'd guess it is about 1/7 of all handle.
Maybe 4% at tracks with low rebates and large pools (like SA), to as much as 35% at high rebate/low handle tracks (like CT).
BTW, I actually knew someone from outside the US who played only one track: SA. He wagered $10m per year there and had a deal where he could bet directly to the track.
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Thanks, Dave, your insight is always fascinating. Just to clarify, your estimation is that the top teams can still earn >$20 million in the North American markets alone? Or is this estimate for all betting markets?
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01-16-2019, 10:30 PM
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#94
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JerryBoyle
Thanks, Dave, your insight is always fascinating. Just to clarify, your estimation is that the top teams can still earn >$20 million in the North American markets alone? Or is this estimate for all betting markets?
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U.S. alone.
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01-16-2019, 10:33 PM
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#95
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
How often do you Dutch in the win pool and what is your criteria for doing so...?
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VERY occasionally, I make multiple win bets-generally to exploit a dead chalk, or when some particular running style, or likely trip, appears flattered.
FWIW, this almost NEVER works for me. And, again, to rear my true dinosaur head: without a strong opinion on who WILL win-and by that, I mean some particular horse whose attributes much appeal to me-, I am doomed to blow my wager(s). In other words, conventional concepts of value aside, betting ON horses works MUCH better for me than betting AGAINST horses.
In fact, some of my best hits, both on gimmicks and win bets, have come on longshots I saw the potential in to defeat chalks I deemed very formidable.
Last edited by mountainman; 01-16-2019 at 10:44 PM.
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01-16-2019, 10:57 PM
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#96
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
VERY occasionally, I make multiple win bets-generally to exploit a dead chalk, or when some particular running style, or likely trip, appears flattered.
FWIW, this almost NEVER works for me. And, again, to rear my true dinosaur head: without a strong opinion on who WILL win-and by that, I mean some particular horse whose attributes much appeal to me-, I am doomed to blow my wager(s). In other words, conventional concepts of value aside, betting ON horses works MUCH better for me than betting AGAINST horses.
In fact, some of my best hits, both on gimmicks and win bets, have come on longshots I saw the potential in to defeat chalks I deemed very formidable.
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Thanks, this helps quite a lot...I’ve been toying with the idea about dutching 2 horses, provided the combined return exceeds 50% of the wager...but maybe now I just stick to finding that one price horse in the race...
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