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08-02-2012, 11:31 PM
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#1
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Eliminator
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 332
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Least well understood type of race
I'm guessing that 6F dirt races are a pretty well explored\understood. Mid priced claiming races at major tracks. Curious if there are type of races that are particuarily difficult to figure out and\or haven't been explored by all the handicapping books out there.
I've heard turf sprints are tough. I would assume that maiden races are pretty difficult since there are so few past performances to go on.
Any that come to mind?
Podonne
__________________
Whenever I read something I think about horse racing... Is that an addiction?
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08-02-2012, 11:35 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 756
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OC/n1x at mid to high end tracks.
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08-02-2012, 11:37 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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poly/turf routes
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08-02-2012, 11:43 PM
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#4
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,834
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Allowance races for lightly raced horses.
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08-03-2012, 01:00 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 769
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I second Alw races. Ninety percent of these runners are future claimers.
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08-03-2012, 01:20 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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Turf races.
I don't think late speed on the turf is the force that most of the players think it is...
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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08-03-2012, 02:17 AM
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#7
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undefined
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 654
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allowance n1x hardest conditions for me at least
maiden races are tough depending on the type:
2 year old maidens around this time of year at the spa can be difficult
maiden special weights are somewhat tough if there are multiple first time starters
maiden claimers are much easier
low level 5k and under claimers are tough if there aren't any standout possibilities
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SALTY
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08-03-2012, 03:59 PM
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#8
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Eliminator
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 332
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Allowance races seem to be a consistent theme so far.
Just for my own curiosity I ran a bunch of tests last night (still running) to measure the average winner's odds for various combinations of surface, distance, race type, purse, etc... I only have 26K races in there from late 2008, but if anything seems particularly high average odds with 100 or so races, I'll report it.
I can probably add n1x as a filter.
__________________
Whenever I read something I think about horse racing... Is that an addiction?
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08-03-2012, 04:44 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by podonne
Allowance races seem to be a consistent theme so .
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Interesting. My attention is drawn to allowance races, just behind the MSW.
I'd say the starter allowance on turf at minor tracks can be challenging, especially if the condition is too high in value.
__________________
Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
Last edited by pondman; 08-03-2012 at 04:47 PM.
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08-03-2012, 08:24 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 756
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pondman
I'd say the starter allowance on turf at minor tracks can be challenging, especially if the condition is too high in value.
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Good one.
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08-04-2012, 12:42 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 69
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Non-cashers. Can't beat 'em.
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08-04-2012, 01:08 PM
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#12
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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Every individual handicapper has a category of race that is hardest to figure, but (from a more universal, objective standpoint) what race type or category do current statistics show as having the lowest percentage of winning favorites?
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08-04-2012, 01:14 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Overlay
Every individual handicapper has a category of race that is hardest to figure, but (from a more universal, objective standpoint) what race type or category do current statistics show as having the lowest percentage of winning favorites?
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My guess would be 12+ horse fields...regardless of track, surface or distance.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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08-04-2012, 02:51 PM
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#14
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Eliminator
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 332
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Overlay
Every individual handicapper has a category of race that is hardest to figure, but (from a more universal, objective standpoint) what race type or category do current statistics show as having the lowest percentage of winning favorites?
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Average final odds is easier for my dataset but I could get others. Which do you think is a better measure of "difficult"?
I can think of a few:
- Average final odds of the winner
- The percent of races won by the favorite
- The impact value of being the favorite
__________________
Whenever I read something I think about horse racing... Is that an addiction?
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08-04-2012, 03:28 PM
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#15
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
My guess would be 12+ horse fields...regardless of track, surface or distance.
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I intended to focus with my question more on class, running surface, and distance, while assuming races with equal field sizes. It would intuitively seem that, given any group of races that have the same combination of surface, class, track configuration, and distance conditions, the percentage of winning favorites would progressively increase as field size got smaller.
Last edited by Overlay; 08-04-2012 at 03:39 PM.
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