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Old 09-29-2018, 08:25 AM   #256
bobphilo
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Originally Posted by steveb View Post
without taking sides this is a furphy.
running styles in the main are dictated by the rider or trainer.


if you had the data and could check it, you would find that no matter how fast or slow the race pace was.....
a horse will generally be about the same metric behind the leader at various race points.


ie: if it's 10m away at the 600m mark in a hot pace it will generally be about the same behind in a slow pace.


it's not usually horses that decide pace, it's riders and trainers.
What you are saying is largely true. Horses due have preferred running positions though is is due to large part to the jockey. It is, after all, the job of the jockey to place the horse in the most favorable position. However horses have differing speed capabilities which must be considered. We have recently discussed the disastrous results which happen when closers are forced to lead. Similarly many speed horses resent being made to rate and waste energy or sulk if asked to rate. Still other horses are tractable and can be placed just where the riders feels best. I would say that it is a combination of horse tendency and jockey intent that determines where a horse ends up positioned.

I have recently been talking to cj regarding pace prediction and where he places horses relative to pace on his Pace Projector. He feels that while he previously placed the horses based on the horse's early positions and where they were placed in their previous races, he will now depend more on their speed capabilities based on their previous pace figures to improve the predictive ability of the tool.

It's a combination of rider intent vs. horse tendency as well as early position vs. pace figure in determining the the early pace and where each horse will run relative to that pace.

Last edited by bobphilo; 09-29-2018 at 08:29 AM.
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Old 09-29-2018, 09:04 AM   #257
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Horses don't have the same amount of natural speed even when their overall abilities are similar.

No decision by a jockey or change in training method by a trainer was going to put Zenyatta on the lead in the BC Sprint.

There's some flexibility in how fast a horse can go early in order to be positioned where the rider and trainer wants, but position is also a function of the differences in their speed vs. stamina. After that, some of it is random at the gate or a response to what the other riders are doing.

Slow paced races are often clustered and very fast paced races are often strung out. That doesn't mean that there aren't race patterns.

If there are 5 speeds in the race and they all want the lead, a few of them are probably going to wind up going too fast early and hurt their chances. A few others might get outrun by their faster rivals or get rated and choked into submission. That race has a pattern to it that favored some horses over others.
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Old 09-29-2018, 09:39 AM   #258
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Slow paced races are often clustered and very fast paced races are often strung out. That doesn't mean that there aren't race patterns.
Excellent point.
And when the race becomes a 2-furlong sprint, the closers, who have been running in their normal comfort zone, are much more able to pass the front runners who has been out of his CZ.
the FR has to re-break while the closers have to make no adjustments.

Many good things are coming out of this thread.
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Old 09-29-2018, 10:37 AM   #259
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I don't understand what you are saying here...and I won't pretend that I do. We are all entitled to our own handicapping opinions...and, since we are all betting our own money...we should do the things that make sense to us, and us alone. That way...we won't have anybody else to blame for whatever "unpleasantries" might occur as a result.
I'm sorry to hear that and I admire your honesty. I have tried to explain this as simply as I could, though I will say, on your behalf, that we are dealing with a novel and complicated concept here which can be difficult to understand, especially when one is used to conventional concepts of handicapping.
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Old 09-29-2018, 10:39 AM   #260
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Excellent point.
And when the race becomes a 2-furlong sprint, the closers, who have been running in their normal comfort zone, are much more able to pass the front runners who has been out of his CZ.
the FR has to re-break while the closers have to make no adjustments.

Many good things are coming out of this thread.
Music to my ears. That was just the understanding that I was hoping for when I first startled this thread on pace patterns. your example also illustrates traditional pace analysis - the only element that pace pattern analysis adds is the additional effect one finds when the early pace is run unevenly.

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Old 09-29-2018, 12:30 PM   #261
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I think the polar opposite of this Belmont/filly race,yet another pace pattern could be something like the American Pharoah vs Frosted Travers.

At the same time,I dont think you can say these unusual races favor any particular running style or hurt performance by x amount of lengths because
their effects differ depending on the horse,imo.
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Old 09-29-2018, 01:00 PM   #262
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I think the polar opposite of this Belmont/filly race,yet another pace pattern could be something like the American Pharoah vs Frosted Travers.

At the same time,I dont think you can say these unusual races favor any particular running style or hurt performance by x amount of lengths because
their effects differ depending on the horse,imo.
Yes, that was another good example. I also remember way back before I even thought of pace patterns, that Smarty Jones's loss in the Belmont was due to running a poor pace pattern, though used halves rather than quarters to adjust for the 12 furlong distance.
I agree that the same pattern may effect different horses differently and therefore may be hard to quantify. However, the same can be said for simple single figure pace analysis and yet TFUS does adjust the final figure for pace to good effect and will probably do the same for patterns.
Who knows? Beyer has changed his position on pace and now considers them a factor, but also believes that their effect can only be considered qualitatively, which could allow for differential effects on different horses, rather than measured quantitatively. Only time and cjs' study will tell how TFUS new quantitative adjustments for patterns in general will work.
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Old 09-30-2018, 06:34 PM   #263
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cj,

Just a suggestion for your study. You can save yourself a lot of time by not including all the horses in the races. For the same reason you don't use badly beaten horses in calculating a variant. With these horses the jockeys have likely long since given up on urging their mounts and/or they are way over classed or having suffered some kind of injury, bled or are badly off form. All these horses will run artificially low figures not due to the pace pattern.
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Old 09-30-2018, 07:47 PM   #264
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I also remember way back before I even thought of pace patterns, that Smarty Jones's loss in the Belmont was due to running a poor pace pattern, though used halves rather than quarters to adjust for the 12 furlong distance.
Jerry Bailey's questionable ride on Eddington to induce Stewart Elliott to move prematurely aboard Smarty Jones, cost them the Triple Crown....If Bailey doesn't pull his BS stunt or Elliott doesn't react to it, history would have been different......That's how you sometimes define a "poor race pattern", as it has nothing to do with horse or it's ability.
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Old 09-30-2018, 08:50 PM   #265
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Jerry Bailey's questionable ride on Eddington to induce Stewart Elliott to move prematurely aboard Smarty Jones, cost them the Triple Crown....If Bailey doesn't pull his BS stunt or Elliott doesn't react to it, history would have been different......That's how you sometimes define a "poor race pattern", as it has nothing to do with horse or it's ability.
Both Eddington and Rock Hard Ten's trainers decided that if pressed by someone, Smarty Jones could be defeated and instructed their riders to do so. The 2 actually took turns at pushing him. The only problem is if you use your own horse to do that you will get him beat also. Especially in this case where the horse you are trying to beat has more natural speed, you will get yourself beat by far worse, which is exactly what happened. Anyone with half a brain has to realize that it's lunacy to try to act as your own rabbit.
You are also correct in pointing out that the inexperienced Elliot fell for this trap which ruined the chances of them all except for Birdstone, who's rider stayed out of it. Pace pattern clearly dictated the result of this race.
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Old 09-30-2018, 10:29 PM   #266
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I think the polar opposite of this Belmont/filly race,yet another pace pattern could be something like the American Pharoah vs Frosted Travers.
Yes, the peak and valley pace patterns seem opposites in one sense.
However, what they have in common is the unevenness of the pace of their consecutive calls. That's what gives them a more negative effect hidden by just combining them into a single pace figure.

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Old 10-03-2018, 10:37 AM   #267
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Been really busy of late, but will have time the next two days to get back to this.
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Old 10-03-2018, 11:26 AM   #268
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Been really busy of late, but will have time the next two days to get back to this.
Understood. This is very complex study. Let it take as long as it takes

Maybe you can get the FBI to help?
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Old 10-12-2018, 01:49 PM   #269
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Been really busy of late, but will have time the next two days to get back to this.
Any update as to when you might get back to this?....
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Old 10-12-2018, 11:43 PM   #270
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Hopefully, after the BC I can get back to this. There is not much I enjoy more than this kind of work.

I don't usually discuss personal stuff online. My youngest daughter was diagnosed with lupus a little over two years ago. Things have not gone well for her. She has had liltle relief for over three years now. Diagnosis took a while and treatment has not been much help. Her kidneys are failing. She tried chemo once and it was working, but she was highly allergic and it was stopped and other things tried. None have worked. She is about to start chemo again, this time an oral version. It should do the trick but there are some very real side effects.

I don't post this lightly. I've been pretty heart broken for a while. She is my baby and it kills me to see her suffering. I'd do anything to be able to trade places with her. Please keep her in your thoughts and know that if I'm not posting much or seem grumpy or terse, there could be reasons. The same goes for anyone here. We don't really know what people are dealing with away from the keyboard.

I'll get back to this stuff as time permits. Doing so means things are going well. I want that more than anything in the world.
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