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08-02-2018, 10:49 AM
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#166
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,926
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Mike,
Two things:
1. GP is a low-rebate track. Hence, as I've said, not much shift in odds.
2. You can't start with 5/2, 3/1, etc. The odds need to be more precise. Thus, a horse dropping from (say) 2.8/1 to 2.1/1 is a significant drop.
Try looking at MNR, CT, etc.
You will get a much different picture.
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08-02-2018, 11:25 AM
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#167
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Mike,
Two things:
1. GP is a low-rebate track. Hence, as I've said, not much shift in odds.
2. You can't start with 5/2, 3/1, etc. The odds need to be more precise. Thus, a horse dropping from (say) 2.8/1 to 2.1/1 is a significant drop.
Try looking at MNR, CT, etc.
You will get a much different picture.
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Thxs Dave....
the next time is going to be those tracks...
Is Saratoga a low-rebate track?
Mike
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08-02-2018, 12:10 PM
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#168
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,926
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Thxs Dave....
the next time is going to be those tracks...
Is Saratoga a low-rebate track?
Mike
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Yes.
Think of tracks that need to work to sell the product because they aren't SA, BEL, SAR, DMR, GG, CD, GP, etc.
MNR, CT, EVD, TUP, IND, PEN, etc. are such tracks.
(Not a complete list.)
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08-02-2018, 12:18 PM
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#169
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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To sum up this thread, the whale's chink, if they have one, is in the gambling sector, the longer priced horses. As the game is formatted presently, they can grind away at underlayed favorites, in a very calculated manner, and play them very heavily, and still make money. What an incredible opportunity for them. It defies all logic in a level playing field scenario.
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08-02-2018, 12:20 PM
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#170
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Yesterday in Del Mar Race #5 the Super Echelon was loaded in the gate at 18-1, after the first turn of this route race, the horse was 7-1.....ended up finishing next to last. Someone got the info on what size bet came in late at this "low rebate" track.
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08-02-2018, 12:28 PM
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#171
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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That is huge money at DMR to move like that. 5 figures. Maybe $12K.
That race ended up being won by a logical, drop down even money fav. That bet makes zero sense.
Last edited by ultracapper; 08-02-2018 at 12:31 PM.
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08-02-2018, 12:43 PM
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#172
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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The only way that would make sense would be if the fav was 4/5, moved up to 6/5, and they had $30K to win on it. Then the increase in price on the fav would offset the money needed to move 's odds, and get the rebate on all the money bet on .
Man, what a racket.
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08-02-2018, 12:46 PM
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#173
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,737
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Mike,
Two things:
1. GP is a low-rebate track. Hence, as I've said, not much shift in odds.
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Low-rebate to who?
I've seen tons of late odds movement at GP...and from what I hear, they have a LOT of CRW action...
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08-02-2018, 12:51 PM
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#174
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,926
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
To sum up this thread, the whale's chink, if they have one, is in the gambling sector, the longer priced horses. As the game is formatted presently, they can grind away at underlayed favorites, in a very calculated manner, and play them very heavily, and still make money. What an incredible opportunity for them. It defies all logic in a level playing field scenario.
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That would not be my summary.
In fact, it would be almost the opposite of what I am saying.
I'm saying that the whales have done such a good job of sharpening their tools to the point where longshots are far worse bets than they used to be. Effectively, they've made the likely long-priced winners (those from the front half of the field in key factors) pay substantially less.
What is hurting the whales is that they are hurting each other's payoffs because they agree way to often. They do not make money on the favorite who is hammered down.
The public perceives this as, "the whales make money on favorites," which is not true. What really happens is that the whales make 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th choices INTO favorites. When those horses get bet down too far (because the whales are in agreement) then they all lose money.
I would say that the chink in the armor is that the odds themselves have become so highly predictable that variations in them point to the "live" horses even before the whales have been bet.
For example...
1. If I am using an "aML" object, (i.e. artificial morning line) that has historically proven to do a good job of predicting the odds then I have a handle on how this race should be bet.
2. My "Handicapping" object will follow suit, pushing winners to the top but also correlating with the tote odds.
3. So, what happens when a horse that DOES NOT FIGURE to have a high hit rate in my HANDICAPPING figures to be bet down from the aML object?
4. The answer to #3 is that my system would perceive that horse to be an underlay.
5. Conversely, a horse that DOES fit in the handicapping but DOES NOT figure in the aML (artificial morning line), would be perceived as an OVERLAY.
6. My experience is that the OVERLAYS will turn out to be the UNDERLAYS, and vice versa.
7. The higher the rebate the more likely this will be true.
8. If a handicapper is currently competitive using a "conventional overlay approach" he should play tracks with little or no rebate, where the competition is not so strong.
From my earlier response:
Quote:
IMHO, because there are so many winners who are showing up as bet downs after the gate opens, the handicapper who EXPECTS to be competitive, needs to address these issues:
1. Which horse(s) are likely to be bet down below what they should be?
2. Which, of the low-odds horses is a true bet against horse?
This may seem like handicapping 101 but it is actually far different than what most players do now.
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The strategy outlined is far different from the handicapping used by most handicappers.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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08-02-2018, 03:30 PM
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#175
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Low-rebate to who?
I've seen tons of late odds movement at GP...and from what I hear, they have a LOT of CRW action...
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No idea why he's saying this. I've never seen a track where there wasn't late tote action.
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08-02-2018, 03:36 PM
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#176
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,926
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Low-rebate to who?
I've seen tons of late odds movement at GP...and from what I hear, they have a LOT of CRW action...
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Everything is relative.
Are you saying that you can get (say) 6% or more? My rebates there are so bad that they're currently 0.00%!
Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
No idea why he's saying this. I've never seen a track where there wasn't late tote action.
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Because at most low-rebate tracks the late tote movement almost balances out.
At the high rebate tracks it is nowhere near balanced."
Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 08-02-2018 at 03:38 PM.
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08-02-2018, 05:13 PM
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#177
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Everything is relative.
Are you saying that you can get (say) 6% or more? My rebates there are so bad that they're currently 0.00%!
Because at most low-rebate tracks the late tote movement almost balances out.
At the high rebate tracks it is nowhere near balanced."
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Sorry Dave, those 2 answers were not convincing....IMO.
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08-02-2018, 05:55 PM
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#178
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,926
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Sorry Dave, those 2 answers were not convincing....IMO.
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So, go get your own answers.
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08-02-2018, 06:02 PM
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#179
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
So, go get your own answers.
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Crushing reply.....That'll win people over...
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08-02-2018, 06:03 PM
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#180
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,926
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Crushing reply.....That'll win people over...
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Yes, that must be my goal.
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