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12-29-2013, 06:10 PM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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Your can't miss making money in 2014 if you do this thread.
Buy SBND. It's an ETF that tracks 3x the inverse of long term treasury bonds.
Yields are just below 4% now. They should be around 4.5% next December.
If I had to make one pick that would be guaranteed to be higher at the end of 2014 than it was at the end of 2013, this is it.
What is yours and why?
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12-29-2013, 08:00 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,760
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this seems to be everyone's trade of the century. all you have to do is listen to financial television shows, they are all touting over the airwaves of America how to position yourself for this great move.
the other biggie is to go short the gold market. they dug up guys that have been bullish their whole lives and have just thrown in the towel.
maybe everyone is right. but i really don't think it works that way.
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12-29-2013, 08:36 PM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lamboguy
this seems to be everyone's trade of the century. all you have to do is listen to financial television shows, they are all touting over the airwaves of America how to position yourself for this great move.
the other biggie is to go short the gold market. they dug up guys that have been bullish their whole lives and have just thrown in the towel.
maybe everyone is right. but i really don't think it works that way.
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Other than being contrarian, do you have some reason that would explain why long term interest rates would remain flat or fall?
You might be overthinking it. If you don't like this, what would you substitute in as a 2014 winner.
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12-30-2013, 02:58 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Willamette Valley, Oregon
Posts: 1,622
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[QUOTE=_______]Other than being contrarian, do you have some reason that would explain why long term interest rates would remain flat or fall?
QUOTE]
Europe going into the crapper again would do it. Italy's third largest bank is in big trouble - tip of the iceberg?
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12-30-2013, 07:59 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
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if you hold ANY type of ETF 3x's for LONG play...well even if you're right...you're gonna be a LOSER...
and if WHY needs to be EXPLAINED to ya...shouldn't be messing around w/them anyways...
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
Last edited by sammy the sage; 12-30-2013 at 08:01 AM.
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12-30-2013, 08:06 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Manhattan
Posts: 3,826
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sammy the sage
if you hold ANY type of ETF 3x's for LONG play...well even if you're right...you're gonna be a LOSER...
and if WHY needs to be EXPLAINED to ya...shouldn't be messing around w/them anyways...
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With this ETF, the money has been in the intermediate term, a month or two.
__________________
“Life does not ask what we want. It presents us with options”
― Thomas Sowell
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12-30-2013, 06:44 PM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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[QUOTE=plainolebill]
Quote:
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Originally Posted by _______
Other than being contrarian, do you have some reason that would explain why long term interest rates would remain flat or fall?
QUOTE]
Europe going into the crapper again would do it. Italy's third largest bank is in big trouble - tip of the iceberg?
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I appreciate that you at least posted a reasonable thesis why this would be a bad investment. I don't think it's likely to pan out that way but it was a well reasoned response.
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12-30-2013, 06:56 PM
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#8
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sammy the sage
if you hold ANY type of ETF 3x's for LONG play...well even if you're right...you're gonna be a LOSER...
and if WHY needs to be EXPLAINED to ya...shouldn't be messing around w/them anyways...
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Your use of ALL CAPS to SUBSTITUTE a tone of AUTHORITY for any actual REASON is LiKe AlL CrAZy DuDe!
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12-30-2013, 07:09 PM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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Anyone want to post any other ideas? I know year end is a completely arbitrary point and 1 year a completely arbitrary end point but I was hoping there would be some other idea(s) I could measure this against.
Don't be shy. They'll be haters but unless they have something of their own own to post it's just part of being on the interwebs.
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12-30-2013, 08:58 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,760
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i think gold is bottoming around $1050. its probably going to take until July to get any upward movement on it.
i have been slowly buying mining stocks, most of them on the Toronto or Venture exchange. i am buying junior mining stocks with decent balance sheets. so far i have bought 2 of them KDX.to and KOR.to
i am close to buying FNV and SAND both of these are on us exchanges.
my thinking is that when the bull market in gold resumes, there will be different winners in the sector from the last time gold moved.
i no longer have any hedge on vs. physical gold even though there is a good chance of more downside in it.
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12-30-2013, 09:45 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by _______
Anyone want to post any other ideas? I know year end is a completely arbitrary point and 1 year a completely arbitrary end point but I was hoping there would be some other idea(s) I could measure this against.
Don't be shy. They'll be haters but unless they have something of their own own to post it's just part of being on the interwebs.
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Unless you HAVE insight to THE FED's future actions of if/when...anything would be pretty much A GUESS...
Fundamentals really don't mean much...
long, long term...energy...think anything...personally like batteries...energy storage...
nano/micro tech...light refraction...next new social ground floor...rare earth elements NOT Chinese...
Problem w/stocks...anything going good will CERTAINLY BE DILUTED w/billions of extra shares printed as perks...
Think motorized electric bikes/trykes would be awesome investment...
oh...if you don't like my posts or style...just PUT ME on ignore... 
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
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12-30-2013, 10:19 PM
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#12
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lamboguy
i think gold is bottoming around $1050. its probably going to take until July to get any upward movement on it.
i have been slowly buying mining stocks, most of them on the Toronto or Venture exchange. i am buying junior mining stocks with decent balance sheets. so far i have bought 2 of them KDX.to and KOR.to
i am close to buying FNV and SAND both of these are on us exchanges.
my thinking is that when the bull market in gold resumes, there will be different winners in the sector from the last time gold moved.
i no longer have any hedge on vs. physical gold even though there is a good chance of more downside in it.
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Thanks lambo. I'll put you down for all 4 and weight them equally unless you want to narrow it down or weight differently.
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12-30-2013, 10:31 PM
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#13
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sammy the sage
Unless you HAVE insight to THE FED's future actions of if/when...anything would be pretty much A GUESS...
Fundamentals really don't mean much...
long, long term...energy...think anything...personally like batteries...energy storage...
nano/micro tech...light refraction...next new social ground floor...rare earth elements NOT Chinese...
Problem w/stocks...anything going good will CERTAINLY BE DILUTED w/billions of extra shares printed as perks...
Think motorized electric bikes/trykes would be awesome investment...
oh...if you don't like my posts or style...just PUT ME on ignore... |
Everyone has insight into the Fed's future actions. They publish the minutes of their meetings and announce in big bold letters what their plans are. It isn't 1990 anymore.
Not that they have a whole lot of control over 30 year rates at this point.
But I'll put you down as bullish on a smug arrogant 2014.
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12-30-2013, 10:46 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Manhattan
Posts: 3,826
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The three that have made me money:
1. Long Equities
2. Short Yen
3. Short Gold/Silver
As a trend trader, I keep going back to these until they stop working.
__________________
“Life does not ask what we want. It presents us with options”
― Thomas Sowell
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12-31-2013, 06:04 PM
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#15
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Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
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I have four trades that may fit the theme of this thread. The prices listed are the closing prices today, 12-31-13. I will judge the success or failure of these trades by the closing prices one year from today.
Long three companies:
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) $27.98
Lorillard (LO) $50.68
Apple (AAPL) $561.02
Short one company:
Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) $55.26.
Good luck to each and every one here and in the trading pits, either financial or equine.
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