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Old 05-08-2017, 12:31 PM   #31
Magister Ludi
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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, as I'm sure you will.
You are correct.
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:36 PM   #32
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Almost no factual data exist about "whales", so I perceive them more like a myth rather than reality.

I am not saying that in horse racing big bettors do not exist. They do exist as in other other kind of gambling. Yes, they exists and like any other gambler they finally end up losing heavily. What I do not believe is that they posses some type of a betting model (like for example the naive Benter's paper about multinomial logit) that allows them to beat the game in a consistent basis.
I totally agree!

Look, this whole “Whale” thing is really getting blown out of proportion. My friends and I consistently monitor the tote board activities for most of the popular tracks here in the States. We just don’t see the type of betting activities being described here. Sure, occasionally you’ll see pool aberrations at the larger tracks with the bigger betting pools. (When this occurs, the larger pools tend to absorb these anomalies much better so as not to disclose the obvious). Of course, you’ll also see that occasional bridge-jumper, but again these incidents are not the norm.

While all this is true for the Stateside betting, it’s not the case in Hong Kong where literally millions of dollars are being bet on individual races. The available tote activities for the Win/Place and Quinella pools can very often display unique changes due to very large bets even when the pools are extremely large. Can you imagine the typical pool sizes like those shown below? Now think about how much money it might take to move the odds on an entry in the Win pool from 15/1 to 10/1. Yes, I believe there are some “Whales” swimming in the pools, but they’re just not as prevalent here in the States.

Betting on a typical day of racing at Hong Kong:
……….....Individual Race Handle: (in U.S. $)
Race #1 - ……...…….$21,484,217
Race #2 - ……...…….$24,703,539
Race #3 - ……...…….$ 9,866,677
Race #4 - ………...….$24,946,392
Race #5 - ………...….$31,926,884
Race #6 - ………...….$31,040,686
Race #7 - ………...….$31,838,445
Race #8 - ………...….$40,777,101
Race #9 -.………...….$36,043,587
Race #10-…….….....$38,129,799

Total Handle All Races……..$290,757,331
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:44 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by P Matties Jr
They could have every horse open in a race, and still win, if the pools are bet wrong. Their best situations are when they can be completely against a horse or two.
THIS is THE problem with these types of operations involved in the pools. Make no mistake, these races are the ones that leave you scratching your head because of convoluted pace scenarios and questionable rides by jocks on specific well meant horses......The dark side of racing, when too much sophisticated money has access/influence to manipulate betting pools, as well as outcomes in specific races by other means.
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:47 PM   #34
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There is something very fishy in all of this....
First, you are say that these whales are approved by the track and tote companies, have direct access to totes, and wager electronically (basically cashless until some future time when things are settled)...That the whales are in the vast majority of pools regularly and are taking advantage of pool wagering "imbalances" to legally skim money with little or no risk, presumably through some sort of computerized, light speed operation TIED INTO the totes and tracks (who accommodate the whales by giving them rebates, even though the skim is working to drain money from them...what the tracks are doing is giving the whales a lower take-out rate through rebates to push money through the windows, so the track can get its take-out, and paying whales a service fee to do this...all on the backs of the regular bettors....if this is true...does anybody wonder anymore what is wrong with racing...? And then the whales must pay taxes on this because I'm hopeful that the IRS considers this a legit business...?
I don't think Paul suggested this is done 'off the backs' of the regular players. Why would you think this has anything to do w regular players? If 100k is bet in a win pool at Track A and the published take is 15 pct, 85000 goes back to the players. If you bet that race, part of the 85 goes to you if you win. I'm not sure why 'regular players' would think something is 'coming off their back'. What are you suggesting?
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:49 PM   #35
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THIS is THE problem with these types of operations involved in the pools. Make no mistake, these races are the ones that leave you scratching your head because of convoluted pace scenarios and questionable rides by jocks on specific well meant horses......The dark side of racing, when too much sophisticated money has access/influence to manipulate betting pools, as well as outcomes in specific races by other means.
It's not that sophisticated if large bets are coming in on multiple horses and many different combos. If you and a buddy went to simo and your buddy bet every race at every track into every pool, would you think that was sophisticated?
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:51 PM   #36
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THIS is THE problem with these types of operations involved in the pools. Make no mistake, these races are the ones that leave you scratching your head because of convoluted pace scenarios and questionable rides by jocks on specific well meant horses......The dark side of racing, when too much sophisticated money has access/influence to manipulate betting pools, as well as outcomes in specific races.
this is exactly why i don't put much money through the windows anymore. i don't know about others here but i began to record EVERY wager i made starting in november of 2004. i can tell you that my win % has stayed the same but the average mutuel has fallen off. also the fields in general have gotten shorter and the mutuel payoffs in general have gotten smaller, which means dime breakage compounds the diminishing profit potential.

i put almost all of my money for gambling or what ever you want to call it, in the index funds. the past year i have gotten over 20% roi. with no time invested in growing my money at that rate. to me horse race gambling has become, working hard for too little return with the time and effort invested. its just for recreation for me. i think my story is a very common one.
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:53 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by EasyGoer89 View Post
It's not that sophisticated if large bets are coming in on multiple horses and many different combos. If you and a buddy went to simo and your buddy bet every race at every track into every pool, would you think that was sophisticated?
You've misread my post, as it was a subtle way of saying that nefarious events happen when HUGE sophisticated money is involved....
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Old 05-08-2017, 01:02 PM   #38
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You've misread my post, as it was a subtle way of saying that nefarious events happen when HUGE sophisticated money is involved....
Wouldn't be the first time I misread.
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Old 05-08-2017, 01:38 PM   #39
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Except 99% of the people who, if given access to the pools, would have no clue what to do with it.

And what access to you actually think they get? They don't get some special private line that updates odds for them more quickly then you see on the tote board. You realize that, right? Their data gets updated at the same rate as yours or mine at the ADW....simply because there IS NO DATA to update until the money actually moves into the pools, and that relies on the rate at which all the simulcasting centers transmit their data into the main pool. There IS NO WAY to get "more up-to-date" data because it all depends on when and how often the money moves from around the world into the combined pool, which is then displayed on everyone's screen.

Or do you think they get some super-secret Trifecta data that lets them see all the combos and payouts? No...they don't.

What they get is like what the wall street guys get who are allowed to park their servers closer to the exchange...they get faster access...but they are getting the same data you or I get through our ADWs...there is no "secret data" that they are getting.

You could scrape the same data they get off the ADW.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, as I'm sure you will.
let me give you an example: a horse at NYRA is showing 1/5 on the board or on your screen at home. that payoffs for that horse can be anything between $2.40-$2.70. one of these computer outfits can manipulate the pool so that their horse will pay $2.70 every time. since they have the apparatus to see the last possible odds and send in their bets real fast they can either add or cancel their bets to insure they get paid $2.70 for thousands of dollars.

give me that edge and i will know what to do with it with the rebate.
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Old 05-08-2017, 01:38 PM   #40
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this is exactly why i don't put much money through the windows anymore. i don't know about others here but i began to record EVERY wager i made starting in november of 2004. i can tell you that my win % has stayed the same but the average mutuel has fallen off. also the fields in general have gotten shorter and the mutuel payoffs in general have gotten smaller, which means dime breakage compounds the diminishing profit potential.

i put almost all of my money for gambling or what ever you want to call it, in the index funds. the past year i have gotten over 20% roi. with no time invested in growing my money at that rate. to me horse race gambling has become, working hard for too little return with the time and effort invested. its just for recreation for me. i think my story is a very common one.
I think you are absolutely right. While tracks have become dependent on big money, it really leads to a perception that this game is not honest.

Great example. I was live on derby day in the late pick 5 to the 1-1 favorite in the last race(was paying about $3800 if I recall correctly), trained by Casse. Who wins, a first time starter by Casse who was morning line 8-1 bet down to 3-1 from the opening flash (closed at 7-2). Meanwhile the favorite finishes 4th. Suspicious crap leads to distrust of the sport. I've seen this movie a few times, so it is just another day in the office to me, but to the consumer, it looks BAD.

So when whales are pounding horses late (71% at high rebate tracks see the winner go down in price from the 0 min to post mark-according to Dave Schwartz), what kind of perception does that give people? When my horse wins he get pounded late and when he goes up in price he finishes up the track. Gives everybody the appearance that it is an insiders game. Once the consumer reaches that conclusion, it is game over, they will likely not be a customer ever.
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Old 05-08-2017, 01:39 PM   #41
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I don't think Paul suggested this is done 'off the backs' of the regular players. Why would you think this has anything to do w regular players? If 100k is bet in a win pool at Track A and the published take is 15 pct, 85000 goes back to the players. If you bet that race, part of the 85 goes to you if you win. I'm not sure why 'regular players' would think something is 'coming off their back'. What are you suggesting?
Arbitraging all the entries and all the pools in nano-seconds with computers and executing vast numbers of individual wager combinations in seconds is well beyond the capability of regular players...it is NOT an edge...it is a form of "gaming the System" that is for some reason permitted and condoned by the track themselves...like the poster says above "everybody gets their cut" so it is allowed to continue..but where do the $'s of these skims and cuts come from, ultimately...? The Public and regular bettors...
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Old 05-08-2017, 01:53 PM   #42
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Lots of great questions after my post.

I will record a podcast this week and it will go up next week. It will not be long - I am trying to keep the new ones to about 15 minutes.

Will post a link here when it is available.
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Old 05-08-2017, 02:11 PM   #43
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let me give you an example: a horse at NYRA is showing 1/5 on the board or on your screen at home. that payoffs for that horse can be anything between $2.40-$2.70. one of these computer outfits can manipulate the pool so that their horse will pay $2.70 every time. since they have the apparatus to see the last possible odds and send in their bets real fast they can either add or cancel their bets to insure they get paid $2.70 for thousands of dollars.

give me that edge and i will know what to do with it with the rebate.
Intuitively, what you write above doesn't make a lot of sense to me (how this would be such a great advantage).

But I'll let others (including you) explain it to me...why would this be such a big edge...knowing whether a 1/5 shot is paying 2.40-2.70?
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Old 05-08-2017, 02:14 PM   #44
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Arbitraging all the entries and all the pools in nano-seconds with computers and executing vast numbers of individual wager combinations in seconds is well beyond the capability of regular players...it is NOT an edge...it is a form of "gaming the System" that is for some reason permitted and condoned by the track themselves...like the poster says above "everybody gets their cut" so it is allowed to continue..but where do the $'s of these skims and cuts come from, ultimately...? The Public and regular bettors...
it's not gaming the system. It's being smarter than you.

Why shouldn't brains and innovation be rewarded? Why should it be penalized?

Plenty of people who SPEND MORE in all sorts of endeavors GET BETTER DEALS.

If you were willing to wager millions, I'm sure you could get the same setup. But you're not, so you don't.

Just like if you're willing to buy in bulk, you get better prices at most all vendors.

If you trade more at a brokerage firm, you can get lower commissions. And if you trade a ton, you can get your computer moved close to the exchange for the ability to see prices nanoseconds faster than the average schmo sitting at home on E-trade.

There is no difference...and why should there be? Why shouldn't people willing to put MILLIONS into the pools annually get a better deal than the $2 bettor?
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Old 05-08-2017, 02:15 PM   #45
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imo almost everything said here and about whales is wrong.

the blind leading the blind.

i guarantee that if any of you had the same 'access' the whales do, you wouldn't make 10 cents more than you do now.

i see what they bet and how they bet. nothing magical about it. in fact, they throw a lot of money away on UNDERLAYS.

large rebates are another matter entirely.

Last edited by AltonKelsey; 05-08-2017 at 02:17 PM.
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