$103 dollar underlay

[SMOO]

Originally Posted by Relwob Owner

If you loved him so much and won over 2K on him, it would probably be a good idea to learn his name so that when you are posting your big win after the Derby, you give the horse his proper respect....

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

But to come here after the race and claim he was not only playable, but had a better shot than Dunkirk? Come on....

I thought Dunkirk should have been about 8-1.

Anyone who had Mine That Bird as a better shot to win than Dunkirk is either lying, or close friend of Calvin Borel and knew his strategy, or not very good at guessing win probabilities.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I thought Dunkirk should have been about 8-1.

Anyone who had Mine That Bird as a better shot to win than Dunkirk is either lying, or close friend of Calvin Borel and knew his strategy, or not very good at guessing win probabilities.

i didn't know a bloody thing about mine that bird, did not know anything about the great ride the horse was gonna get either. i don't have a crystal ball. but i do have a pair of eyes, and dunkirk look awful in the paddock and on the track before the race. i have never seen a horse that changed so much inbetween races in the last 30 years of watching horseracing that has ever won with a big change in looks like that one that i have ever seen. that angle is batting 100% over its career use, and that is probably from thousands of horses.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i didn't know a bloody thing about mine that bird, did not know anything about the great ride the horse was gonna get either. i don't have a crystal ball. but i do have a pair of eyes, and dunkirk look awful in the paddock and on the track before the race. i have never seen a horse that changed so much inbetween races in the last 30 years of watching horseracing that has ever won with a big change in looks like that one that i have ever seen. that angle is batting 100% over its career use, and that is probably from thousands of horses.

well if you had an angle such as noticing a visual negative, and you have legitimate talent with it , that is different.

I don't want to tell you how to bet, and I've seen you mention Friesan Fire was "off" as well, but the Daily Doubles with all in the Derby would have been right down your Alley. Even if Pioneerof The Nile wins, I think you may have been getting your $20 bucks back...

[lamboguy]

mine bird could have been an possible throw in if i didn't play bin saroor's horses. the track was playing inside the whole day and they announced on tv that the maintenance crew did nothing different before the 11th race. i snoozed and lost a shot at a big score. those that got it gets my congradualtions. i never wheel or play alls in any play that i make because if i had to do that i would be better off in long run just playing win only.

[HTRFGuy]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

You are still avoiding my point. It's VERY easy to come here after the race and explain why you thought an impossible horse had a chance. Where were you before hand? I have yet to read one person on this site or any others that gave Mine That Bird a chance.

Actually, there was a Post here on PA in another thread the day before the Derby which chose Mine That Bird as one of two favorite longshots. The poster was Sally!

[riskman]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I thought Dunkirk should have been about 8-1.

Anyone who had Mine That Bird as a better shot to win than Dunkirk is either lying, or close friend of Calvin Borel and knew his strategy, or not very good at guessing win probabilities.

Agree. It is difficult enough to make an accurate line for improving three year olds in a distance the entrants have never run before on a sloppy track in a 20 horse field. I wound up with Musket Man , my line 4-1 . The colt offered value and ran pretty good. No cigars here.
I have gone over my figures several times and Mine That Bird fell in the bottom 1/3 of my capping. I could find no reason to use the gelding in the Derby.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by HTRFGuy

Actually, there was a Post here on PA in another thread the day before the Derby which chose Mine That Bird as one of two favorite longshots. The poster was Sally!

Sort of. He was one of 6 horses she mentioned. Kudos to her for the pick but not exactly a ringing endorsement. Although she should be proud she was able to include him at all.

[riskman]

Originally Posted by HTRFGuy

Actually, there was a Post here on PA in another thread the day before the Derby which chose Mine That Bird as one of two favorite longshots. The poster was Sally!

I think I remember that also--hope she put some money on the gelding.

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by riskman

Agree. It is difficult enough to make an accurate line for improving three year olds in a distance the entrants have never run before on a sloppy track in a 20 horse field. I wound up with Musket Man , my line 4-1 . The colt offered value and ran pretty good. No cigars here.
I have gone over my figures several times and Mine That Bird fell in the bottom 1/3 of my capping. I could find no reason to use the gelding in the Derby.

Well done with MM...you deserved 2nd....

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by riskman

Agree. It is difficult enough to make an accurate line for improving three year olds in a distance the entrants have never run before on a sloppy track in a 20 horse field. I wound up with Musket Man , my line 4-1 . The colt offered value and ran pretty good. No cigars here.
I have gone over my figures several times and Mine That Bird fell in the bottom 1/3 of my capping. I could find no reason to use the gelding in the Derby.

Musket Man would have likely run 2nd had Gomez not caused the bumping in the stretch.

[JustRalph]

this shit happens every year

people start turning on each other about 3 days after the Derby............

interesting......... phenomenon.......

[rastajenk]

And people wonder why racing has problems. When inflamed passions meet entrenched self-interests, sparks fly, to mangle a few metaphors all at once.

[justin13892002]

In my honest opinion, some people should stop complaining they didn't hit it and move on. Thats all I heard at the track yesterday, HOW IMPOSSIBLE IT WAS. It was a sloppy track, inside was cleaning up, and Borel knew it. He showed it all day long. After winning by 20 lengths with Rachel Alexandra, he atleast should have been respected. Not to mention the horse was 3rd off a layoff and 3rd race as a 3 yr old. Should he have been bet down to 4 or 5 to 1, HELL NO! The only reason Mine That Bird won was because of the Slop, The Inside Bias, and the knowledge of Borel to take advantage of it. The 5 guys I sat with as well as myself had the winner that day. If you ask why it wasn't posted, it was because he wasn't the best in the race, and up until I Want Revenge scratched, and until the Sloppy track, where Inside was tearing up, Mine That Bird was Not a good bet by any means.


As far as the Preakness goes, the race is at Pimlico. Pimlico is another speed favoring track. If the track is sloppy on May 16th, Mine That Bird has a legitimate shot. If it is a fast track, I can GUARANTEE Mine That Bird does not win the Preakness. Here is the setup.....Mine That Bird NEEDS a sloppy track with a bias, and NEEDS Borel to realize the bias to stand a shot.



I have seen 7 or 8 posts of people saying "How can this horse win", or "I can't understand why anybody would bet this horse".

If you lost the race, It was a race lost. Everybody loses races. The horse had a perfect setup, and Borel knew enough to take advantage of the circumstances.


All in all, Should Mine That Bird have been at so much as 10-1, or bet to better odds than Dunkirk? NO WAY! The horse was dealt a Royal Flush and showed like he had a pair of 2's. Is he a bad bet next out? If it's a fast track, YOU BET! This race just shows, you can't look at just on piece of the puzzle, you need to think "OUTSIDE THE BOX" and look at the bigger picture.

[David-LV]

Originally Posted by Relwob Owner

If you loved him so much and won over 2K on him, it would probably be a good idea to learn his name so that when you are posting your big win after the Derby, you give the horse his proper respect....

I may misspell a word every now and then but unlike you I sure know how add and I collected back $3525 minus $75 that I bet in the race for a profit of $3450.

I can't explain why MTB ran like he did and I don't think that anybody really knows except the horse.

Get over it, it is just another race. You win some and you lose most. I'm no genius. I got lucky this time.

My key in the race was POTN with a couple of savers that's how I hit the race.

_______
David-LV