Derby Analysis

[Valupix]

Top Choice: (#19) Desert Party

Derby Wagers;

Win bet hedges: West Side Bernie, Regal Ransom, General Quarters, Summer Bird & Desert Party ( I drop Regal Ransom and add Pap Clem)

Exacta: Keying Friesan Fire over all 6 of those mentions in my win bet hedges.

Other exotics: I’ll key Friesan Fire in the top spot over a variety of horses.

West Side Bernie: his Lane’s End is the only one that doesn’t fit in. Isolating surfaces it’s the only effort he gave that doesn’t appears to have been a forward progression. Pedigree may be too short for this, but he looks really good, still appears to have upside and is suggested at some tantalizing overlay prices, I have to include him!

Musket Man: has big talent, took time for his route race numbers to rebound and has a pedigree that screams sprint.

Mr. Hot Stuff: late improver with modest numbers, hard to include.

Advice: another sprint screaming pedigree, considering his affection for trouble he may be better than the numbers indicate, hard to include based on what can be seen on the surface.

Hold Me Back: only poor effort was his only dirt effort, but he looks reasonable here and has borderline value. I’d like to work him into my hedge bets, but there is no way I will find room in front of several others.

Friesan Fire: may offer the best value situation of the leading contenders, has done nothing wrong since adding blinkers, I think he’s the horse top beat and will be using him as THE key on top of my rare venture into the world of exotic wagering.

Papa Clem: has been the most troubling include/exclude decision for me. Has taken a liking to dirt, I love the way he rated in the Arkansas Derby, as of now he is the horse on the outside looking in on my Derby hedge bets, but I could end up working him in by post time.

Mine That Bird: I guess the connections see something in this guy. I don’t see it.

Join In The Dance: likes to back up and has yet to show he can rate, best candidate to be the Derby rabbit.

Regal Ransom: the Godolphin horses look different this year than those of past years, the foundation looks different, the entire work tab looks different and the recent works are solid, This time around I don’t get the feeling they are going to get to the top of the stretch and quit like most of those in the past. Well prepared, bred for distance and oozing with both talent and upside, toss in a big price and I have to pull the trigger this time around on the “Dubai Duo.”

Chocolate Candy: rarely gives a poor effort, but the numbers are consistently weak in comparison to this bunch. First time on dirt could play a role. But I just can’t play along.

General Quarters: I missed making the call on this guy in the Bluegrass and it still bugs the heck out of me. Along with the poor performance in the Tampa Derby, the trainer change that even before the race appeared to be a change only on paper were the basis of my rationale for going with another horse. Of course the Tampa Derby effort had a glaring excuse for the poor result. (It’s not easy being a bonehead) Even the fact I cashed a ticket on him, doesn’t ease the sting that still exist. I have him firmly within my Derby hedge bets because he deserves to be there. He is a serious contender again today. The decision on my top play comes down to him and Desert Party.

I Want Revenge: the blinkers were a big factor, but not near as much as the move to dirt. What a difference that made! But two big time efforts translates into a cheap price. Too many reasons to play against cheap prices even in your average everyday race, and the Derby has an infinite numbers of reasons, MUST make him prove it again and MUST play against on the basis he is as likely not to as he is to do it.

Atomic Rain: I was so happy to see that he does not shows up with the blinkers coming off. He hates those blinkers and it was going to be a very, very difficult choice to have to leave him out. Even with those blinkers on he has the raw talent to compete with these and a huge price to go along with it. If you can justify it I won’t try to talk you out of it, but I have to drop someone and the blinkers are enough of a factor for me.

Dunkirk: lightly raced and an equally light price. The talent is there, but here has enough missing to feel comfortable with leaving him out.

Pioneerof The Nile: has yet to show forward progression since the barn change. The numbers are modest but he has repeatedly beaten many of these. Maybe the numbers aren’t a good indication, but WOW four or five-to-one odds? How can you do that solely based on a mistrust in the numbers? Numbers that are rarely wrong I must add. First time on dirt may make a difference.

Summer Bird: out of nowhere here is a horse that many still don’t see on the radar. As of this moment I have him in my hedge bets for the Derby. Just stepped up to face winners for the first time and responded big time! He’s improving each race by huge margins and has the style and talent to pick these off in the long stretch drive.

Nowhere To Hide: blinkers go back on really quick, but I can’t see enough to get even slightly interested.

Desert Party: as best my limited handicapping data can tell, the only race this fella’s progression did not move forward was his trouble filled Hopeful Stakes. I hate saying this because of all the missing data these foreign imports lack, but he looks primed for a huge effort today. Something I have never before said about any Godolphin horse trained by Saeed Bin Surroor. If you take a deep look back at the patterns and time cycles of the combined races and workouts, both Godolphin entrants look more logically prepped than ever before. Bred to route and he hasn’t been positioned to do it very often. That distance factor translate into a huge dose of upside.

Flying Private: there are others that would surprise me more, but he’s a hard one to take seriously. Maybe if this were on synthetics.

[classhandicapper]

Subject to late change depending on odds, track condition, bias etc...

Most likely Winners

I Want Revenge exploded when he came east to run on dirt in the Gotham. IMHO he verified that form in the Wood. I know the Wood was slower than the Gotham. As a result, many literal Sheet readers will view that as a backwards move. But IMO he lost about 3 1/2 lengths at the start. When they crossed the beam to start the timing of the race he was approximately 3 1/2 lengths behind the leader. So he was timed in 1 1/8 miles + 3 1/2 lengths. IMO he also didn't start his run as early as he should have because of some traffic. I consider it a plus that Mr. Fantasy came back to win a pretty solid Withers. In the Gotham, IWR dueled him off, put him away, and drew off easily. The comeback win adds some quality to that performance. I believe he is somewhat overrated by the general public because of his trip in the Wood against weaker, but no matter how you slice it, he's still very good. The only knock I have is that he has probably already peaked for this cycle. Many of the others look more forward moving.

Dunkirk has gotten very good exceptionally fast and is working like we still haven't seen his best race. I thought Quality Road was the best horse in the division, but Dunkirk gave him a good race despite making a huge wide move on a track that I made very mildly speed favoring. The major difference between him and IWR is that as a closer he's likely to lose ground and then have to try to catch IWR who will have the jump on him. Unless Talamo somehow gets drawn into a competitive situation prematurely up front, I think the tactical advantage goes to IWR. That could be the difference between two talented horses.

Second Tier Contenders

POTN is better than his figures suggest (several lengths). I don't think comparing him (and the other CA synthetic horses) to IWR is the correct way to get a line on him. IMO, IWR improved his figures for more reasons than just how synthetic and dirt figures translate. I think IWR is simply a better dirt horse because he's bred to be. A better comparison might be to Papa Clem. If we evaluate Papa Clem's recent race on a dry track that might give us a better line into how much POTN and the other CA horses can improve on dirt "IF" (obviously a big IF) they are just as good on dirt.

I think workouts are often a very good indication of how a horse will do when it switches surfaces. People will point to Colonel John working really well at CD and then not running especially well in the Derby when he had good synthetic form. However, IMHO, CJ had a terrible trip at CD that day. With a cleaner run, I think he would have been a LOT closer to BB. I think his win in the Travers verified that he could handle dirt well. He had a terrible start and ran into trouble again that day but still won and ran a decent figure. It looks like POTN is handling the dirt quite well in his workouts at CD. That indicates to me he should run well Saturday. However, despite that, it remains a risk factor that requires an extra tick or so on the board.



Friesan Fire is a legitimately improving horse. I don't think the slop was a major factor in his last race. I expected him to run a huge new top that day because he had a 58.1B work just prior to that race. That was far and away his best work to date. I consider improving workouts to be a pretty good tip-off (in general) for when a lightly race horse is about break out. I've also specifically seen that pattern with Jones a few other times (including Hard Spun a couple of years ago). The problem is that IMO he's going to have to take another step forward to compete with the best horses unless they are over the top. I'm also not sure he's as prepared to get 10F as some of the others. The good news is that he worked very well again.


Desert Party and Regal Ransom are tough to get a line on because the competition in Dubai was relatively weak and any set of pace/speed figures are likely to be slightly less accurate. That said, the fact that they were 15 lengths ahead of the rest of the field suggests that the other horses would have to be pretty bad for them to not at least fit into the second tier here. Most of the competition in Dubai didn't have much in the way of credentials, but they were at least competitive in Listed stakes. So they weren't horrible. Also, fractional and final time comparisons to the Classic (horses that I do have a decent line on) suggest they at least fit in here. Both seem to be well prepared coming into the race, though Desert Party looks a tad more like a real stayer to me and the slightly better of the two. Regal Ransom may have been carried a bit by what might have been a speed favoring Dubai track. If there is "hidden value" anywhere, it is likely to be with these two because no one is certain how to deal with them and the public doesn't know them.

Third Tier Contenders

Chocolate Candy, Papa Clem, and perhaps West Side Bernie, Musket Man and General Quarters are all horses that could pick up a piece, but would have to improve fairly sharp to win. Of the 5, Chocolate Candy could be the best value because of his slow synthetic figures and probable longer odds. He's better than he looks based on number power and could turn out to be a better dirt horse.

General Pace Considerations

Join the Dance is likely to be a pace factor as a pseudo entry mate to Dunkirk. However, as far as I can tell there are no unrateable or "need the lead" type horses in this race. There are several stalker types that would be best served allowing Join the Dance to make the lead and wilt on his own after 6F-7F or so. It makes no sense to use your horse to keep the pace honest when whoever is in the stalking position will probably inherit the lead on the turn without working hard for it. At that point there should be quite a battle among the first flight as many of them have good talent and they will all be moving at the same time. Those horses are Desert Party, Papa Clem, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom and IWR. They should all be relatively close with the actual position being related to the break and post position.The next flight should see Pioneer of the Nile and Musket Man. Several horses I consider non contenders should also be in the mix for awhile, but not be relevant at the end. All in all, unless something silly happens, pace should not be a major factor in the outcome. I see an honest pace here.

Bias Considerations

CD is often a lot like Belmont in that even when the rail is not dead per se, the outside paths are often a little better than the inside paths. That mitigates the disadvantage of ground loss to some degree. As always, I intend on watching how the races are playing Friday and early in the card on Saturday to see if any last minute adjustments need to be made to my betting and thinking.

[LemonSoupKid]

I like the comments but love the Sowell quote.

I'm worried about Desert Party and Regal Ransom. I won't use them to win but I am scared not to put them on some ticket to get 2nd to 4th.

Otherwise, I think the class is:

Pioneer of the Nile
I Want Revenge
Friesan Fire
Chocolate Candy
(Dunkirk?)

[W2G]

Originally Posted by Valupix

Top Choice: (#19) Desert Party

Desert Party: as best my limited handicapping data can tell, the only race this fella’s progression did not move forward was his trouble filled Hopeful Stakes. I hate saying this because of all the missing data these foreign imports lack, but he looks primed for a huge effort today. Something I have never before said about any Godolphin horse trained by Saeed Bin Surroor. If you take a deep look back at the patterns and time cycles of the combined races and workouts, both Godolphin entrants look more logically prepped than ever before. Bred to route and he hasn’t been positioned to do it very often. That distance factor translate into a huge dose of upside.

"logically prepped" ... well stated. Close observers will note that Godolphin is always learning and adapting to this challenge of winning the KD. Everything from the type of horses they buy to the travel schedule has changed over the years. It's been kind of under-reported that Godolphin shipped to CD quite early this year as opposed to several days prior like in past efforts. Also note that the Dubai duo will get Lasix now that they're back in the states, not that either really needs it...

[Onion Monster]

class, that's as good a write-up as I'll see for the Derby. I usually have to rack up a $15 dollar credit card charge to read that kind of analysis. All I need now is an acceptable odds line.

[andymays]

I Want Revenge sits third behind Join the Dance and Regal Ransom early. I Want Revenge inherits the lead on the backstretch and never looks back and wins by 7 lengths under wraps.

Finishing second and third are Dunkirk and Chocolate Candy. Hold Me Back, Mr. Hott Stuff, or Musket Man rally to get 4th and 5th! Must use Friesan Fire or Pioneerof the Nile for 4th and 5th positions in Supers and Super Hi-5's

Trifecta 13 with 11-15 with 2-3-5-11-15

Superfecta 13 with 11-15 with 2-3-5-11-15 with 2-3-5-6-11-15-16

Super Hi-5 13 with 11-15 with 2-3-5-11-15 with 2-3-5-6-11-15-16 with 2-3-5-6-11-15-16 (costs $160 only if I'm up going into the race)

[horseraceguy101]

One thing that i wanted to mention, is that i want revenge lost to pioneer of the nile, in his third last race. In that race, I want revenge got caught wide going into the first turn. With his outside post in the derby, i don't think he will be as good as everyone says. I do like pioneer of the nile because in that race where I want revenge got caught wide, Pioneer, was well behind the field. Pioneer of the nile has a better closing kick then I want revenge. I also like others but will either make my own post or post in another for that.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Onion Monster

class, that's as good a write-up as I'll see for the Derby. I usually have to rack up a $15 dollar credit card charge to read that kind of analysis. All I need now is an acceptable odds line.

Thanks.

I used to try to make odds lines and still often do for big races, but usually I just sort of rank the horses and then look at their rank in terms of odds (from favorite down). If anyone is badly misranked, then I start getting interested.

At this point, I'm still having some difficulty constructing a bet that I can be comfortable with. WE don't even know how wet the track is going to be yet.

The one thing I did notice was that Chocolate Candy was taking a lot more early money than I expected. I was thinking he might be 30-1 or 40-1 and be worth using with some of the major contenders in exotics and then praying he moved up on dirt, but not at the price I saw quoted.

[overthehill]

this is my analysis for what its worth:

Of the favorites: im willing to go against iwr. his gotham was great but ive seen california shippers to new york respond with the race of their lives. the wood turned out to be a poor race and he won hard used after breaking poorly.

dunkirk lacks seasoning and figures to get a horrible trip.

pioneer of the nile is unproven on dirt.

ff is in excellent form has and excellent work out moves up on an off track, have to use him.


Now of the next group of horses I happen to like the blue grass 1/2 finishers. GQ and hold em back their come home was 36 or less which is race horse time. people say they are slow but if you look at the finish of massone in the race who had a ground saving trip. he only a bit behind Chocolate Candy who finished close to Pioneer of the Nile so may be they are not so slow after all.

Then I cant throw out the Dubai horses either and especially not Regal Ransom who is a young horse who should benefit from the track and may have come to hand.

Of the rest I fear Musket Man but I am using 5 horses in exactas and hoping im right going against the favorites.

Right now Im assuming that it will be a speed favoring track and that after a mile FF GQ and RR will be the front 3, I am hoping they will be around at the finish too.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Originally Posted by horseraceguy101

One thing that i wanted to mention, is that i want revenge lost to pioneer of the nile, in his third last race. In that race, I want revenge got caught wide going into the first turn. With his outside post in the derby, i don't think he will be as good as everyone says. I do like pioneer of the nile because in that race where I want revenge got caught wide, Pioneer, was well behind the field. Pioneer of the nile has a better closing kick then I want revenge. I also like others but will either make my own post or post in another for that.

i dont see IWR post position a problem one bit... its a long stretch before the first turn and he has 2 speed horses not far far inside of him that he will help be able to fall into line where needed.

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by OFFandRUNNING10

i dont see IWR post position a problem one bit... its a long stretch before the first turn and he has 2 speed horses not far far inside of him that he will help be able to fall into line where needed.

I agree...I think his post is actually very good....Talamo can see what the others do inside of him and adjust....


Interesting abt how few chatter there has been abt Talamo-whether you like him or not, I think him being on IWR in a race of this magnitude is a huge factor and maybe a concern....there are 8 or 9 jocks in the race I would rather have on, maybe more.....

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Originally Posted by Relwob Owner

I agree...I think his post is actually very good....Talamo can see what the others do inside of him and adjust....


Interesting abt how few chatter there has been abt Talamo-whether you like him or not, I think him being on IWR in a race of this magnitude is a huge factor and maybe a concern....there are 8 or 9 jocks in the race I would rather have on, maybe more.....

i know what your saying about talamo...he is very young and inexperienced...but i have watched alot of him this past year and i really like the kid (as a jockey...as a person is another story) anyways... he is very smart. In the wood he made a great decision not to panic and rush when IWR didnt break... he settled him, took his time and got him into position to win. Getting pinned by the rail wasnt his fault he had no where else to take him but to swing him out way wide. Then he battled until he found his opening to steer him clear. I have seen many moves like this from Talamo this year. Obviously this race is a different magnitude and lots more can happen but i dont think he will panic... im comfortable with him on there but i understand ur argument

[andymays]

Originally Posted by OFFandRUNNING10

i know what your saying about talamo...he is very young and inexperienced...but i have watched alot of him this past year and i really like the kid (as a jockey...as a person is another story) anyways... he is very smart. In the wood he made a great decision not to panic and rush when IWR didnt break... he settled him, took his time and got him into position to win. Getting pinned by the rail wasnt his fault he had no where else to take him but to swing him out way wide. Then he battled until he found his opening to steer him clear. I have seen many moves like this from Talamo this year. Obviously this race is a different magnitude and lots more can happen but i dont think he will panic... im comfortable with him on there but i understand ur argument

Right on the money about Talamo. He's fearless and I hope he gets out of the gate quick and sits 3rd about 5 lengths off Regal Ranson and Join in the Dance.

All the other top notch Jocks will be following him and I'm sure they will try to intimidate him if they can.

Everthing has been going right and I hope it continues tomorrow.

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by OFFandRUNNING10

i know what your saying about talamo...he is very young and inexperienced...but i have watched alot of him this past year and i really like the kid (as a jockey...as a person is another story) anyways... he is very smart. In the wood he made a great decision not to panic and rush when IWR didnt break... he settled him, took his time and got him into position to win. Getting pinned by the rail wasnt his fault he had no where else to take him but to swing him out way wide. Then he battled until he found his opening to steer him clear. I have seen many moves like this from Talamo this year. Obviously this race is a different magnitude and lots more can happen but i dont think he will panic... im comfortable with him on there but i understand ur argument

Yeah, the Wood proved a lot and I agree that in the past year he has looked pretty good(on the personal level, I think that the show may have played up his cockiness quite a bit). I think he will be fine but am surprised there hasnt been more mention of it up til now. If you like IWR, you gotta like the current 6 to 1!

[horseraceguy101]

It does seem to be true at least the past few years though, that the outside post is better. But still as long as he doesn't get caught too wide. Yes it is quite awhile before the first turn, but you never know.