*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[coacht]

Thanks Green 80

I'm trying to look for what works the best and if there are combinations that can increase the win %.

coach t

[NorCalGreg]

They're getting closer--"ELWOOD" finished in 3rd by 6 lengths--close enough he could almost taste victory.

Coincidentally...another from my "Q" Watch List is going today. This one looks pretty good too:

MYSTICAL STONES is entered on September 8, 2017 at FINGER LAKES--MDSW... 6th RACE #7 @12-1 ML

My comment: "Throw-away LAST race, no effort...08-29 -----Maiden may be set-up for a big score @ FLX next"

He's back off that throw-away race in 11 days--a good sign. 3 works in 12 days, pos rider switch, 6 to 5F today.
All from a small barn -- with a with a trainer AND jockey with positive ROI's.

At 12-1 I'll lay some money down

*I forgot Los Alamitos Thoroughbred meet started--I posted the B-5 Consensus along with an EXOTIC BETS! "PICK-ALL" card to hopefully help out. Thats one of my favorite tracks----good luck

[NorCalGreg]

I was busy looking at the Belmont card for today....to notice Los Al opened.

Anyhoo...here's what I came up with:

BELMONT

1ST FOREIGN AFFAIR 6-1

2ND FORRES LILY 10-1

6TH MONTE MAN 7-2

7TH ELOWEASEL 10-1

9TH WHITE MISSLE 15-1


I flat-out refuse to post that CHAD/IRAD horse in the 8th


He'll probably win---you can have him. Dont hold your breath waiting for that ML---not gonna happen.

-NCG

[green80]

Originally Posted by coacht

Thanks Green 80

I'm trying to look for what works the best and if there are combinations that can increase the win %.

coach t

Ok, let us know. What I find is that the more factors in the combinations, the closer you get to the favorite.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by green80

Ok, let us know. What I find is that the more factors in the combinations, the closer you get to the favorite.

I've been (and still am) looking for definitely obscure factors---AND as few as possible, that win much more than their fair share.

Since every facet of racing has been studied to death--it would have to be proprietary. If combinations of factors with high impact values would lead me to the promised land....hate to say it---but I would be there by now.

It's a lot of fun trying....and I may get there yet---or not.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

They're getting closer--"ELWOOD" finished in 3rd by 6 lengths--close enough he could almost taste victory.

Coincidentally...another from my "Q" Watch List is going today. This one looks pretty good too:

MYSTICAL STONES is entered on September 8, 2017 at FINGER LAKES--MDSW... 6th RACE #7 @12-1 ML

My comment: "Throw-away LAST race, no effort...08-29 -----Maiden may be set-up for a big score @ FLX next"

He's back off that throw-away race in 11 days--a good sign. 3 works in 12 days, pos rider switch, 6 to 5F today.
All from a small barn -- with a with a trainer AND jockey with positive ROI's.

At 12-1 I'll lay some money down

*I forgot Los Alamitos Thoroughbred meet started--I posted the B-5 Consensus along with an EXOTIC BETS! "PICK-ALL" card to hopefully help out. Thats one of my favorite tracks----good luck

<span class="emoji-outer emoji-sizer"><span class="emoji-inner" style="background: url(chrome-extension://immhpnclomdloikkpcefncmfgjbkojmh/emoji-data/sheet_emojione_64.png);background-position:62.50000000000001% 58.333333333333336%;background-size:4900%" data-codepoints="1f95e"></span></span>.....Be nice to hit one of these:

MYSTICAL STONES finished 3rd beaten by 6 3/4 lengths, on September 8, 2017, at FINGER LAKES in Race 6.
Off odds: 21.40

.....I sho' could have used a nice $40 payoff

[NorCalGreg]

BELMONT

1ST FOREIGN AFFAIR 6-1 $6.80

2ND FORRES LILY 10-1

6TH MONTE MAN 7-2

7TH ELOWEASEL 10-1

9TH WHITE MISSLE 15-1 XXX scratched



1 for 4 -$1.20

...Too bad--White Missle was my ace in the hole. After re-looking, why in the world would anyone play MONTE MAN? He topped out badly last ---not to mention his dreadful inconsistency.

[NorCalGreg]

Only 1 for me today @ BELMONT




8TH RACE ROYAL POSSE 15-1



Good luck today,


-NCG

[Fitzy]

Hey Nor Cal just 1 at Belmont or one overall across all tracks. Anyone see Woodbine closed yesterday as a trainer was killed in an accident.

[reckless]

PARX selections for Sat., 9-9

I actually handicap using Greg's Pace-View program. I was never ever a black-box player.

I basically find the main contenders by sorting both Power and Prime. I list the top 4-5 in each race but will include a horse as a contender if it ranks 1-2 in either category but does not rank high in the other.

I model racetracks so after I find my contenders I look at other factors such as E2, Late, BRIS speed figure, EPower, LPower. Then I line score for another look ... especially if I believe there is a bias in the making.

This has worked well for me because I only handicap two tracks: Parx and NYRA. I glance at stakes races elsewhere if I see a chance for a good play.

Here are today's selections for Parx, before scratches. Good luck to all.

1st - 5-3-2-7
2nd - 12-7-1-6
3rd - 1-4-7-8
4th - 8-7-4-1a
5th - 5-10-3-11
6th - 4-3-7-1
7th - 10-9-12-6
8th - 5-12-6-3
9th - 10-6-4-2
10th - 7-9-12-3

[Fitzy]

Royal Posse is a scratch today

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Fitzy

Royal Posse is a scratch today

OOOOOkayyy....I'm invoking the "Andy" rule---post whenever the hell you want, as long as it's before the race.

Besides, BELMONT and BELTERRA are right next to each other on the track selection list

--I spent a half hour handicapping Belterra before I realized my mistake



BELMONT ....continued:


5TH GLORY TO KITTEN 4-1

6TH DREAM PASSAGE 12-1

9TH PATENTAR 10-1

10TH GASCONADE 5-1

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by reckless

PARX selections for Sat., 9-9

I actually handicap using Greg's Pace-View program. I was never ever a black-box player.

I basically find the main contenders by sorting both Power and Prime. I list the top 4-5 in each race but will include a horse as a contender if it ranks 1-2 in either category but does not rank high in the other.

I model racetracks so after I find my contenders I look at other factors such as E2, Late, BRIS speed figure, EPower, LPower. Then I line score for another look ... especially if I believe there is a bias in the making.

This has worked well for me because I only handicap two tracks: Parx and NYRA. I glance at stakes races elsewhere if I see a chance for a good play.

Here are today's selections for Parx, before scratches. Good luck to all.

1st - 5-3-2-7
2nd - 12-7-1-6
3rd - 1-4-7-8
4th - 8-7-4-1a
5th - 5-10-3-11
6th - 4-3-7-1
7th - 10-9-12-6
8th - 5-12-6-3
9th - 10-6-4-2
10th - 7-9-12-3

Good, solid use of your handicapping tools, Ralphie. I have another PLATINUM customer that has his own method---strictly
for GPX.

I sort of hinted around that perhaps he would tell me the complete method. He's sent in some diagrams previously, but horseplayers being horseplayers....think he decided I already knew too much.

Trouble is......I don't know anything!

[NorCalGreg]

Have you taken a good look at 7TH Race GIVEN FIRE 20-1 ml.

The horse just can't stay healthy enough to run more than a couple races without an extended layoff.

Now today----2nd off yet another long layoff, he's back in 13 days.

He shows 4 moves in 16 days--21F counting the mile he ran....where he blew out a half mile then eased up. Now back to sprinting---the main question is his inexperienced trainer Abreu.

A class drop would have sweetened the deal---but it probably won't help a horse that isn't sound....or a rookie trainer.

He also switches riders from Santana to Cancel. If he can stay in one piece, the current line of 22-1 looks like a bargain.

[NorCalGreg]

Alright...today's a new day



BELMONT


4TH LUCULLAN 4-1

6TH STAN THE MAN 8-1

10TH RAGAZZA DI PAPA 12-1


Good luck today gents


--NCG