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04-28-2004, 02:16 PM
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#1
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Derby field is set
Eddington and Rock Hard Ten are out, posts to be selected later.
Code:
1 MINISTER ERIC
2 MASTER DAVID
3 FRIENDS LAKE
4 IMPERIALISM
5 ST AVERILL
6 ACTION THIS DAY
7 WIMBLEDON
8 THE CLIFF'S EDGE
9 POLLARD'S VISION
10 BORREGO
11 SMARTY JONES
12 READ THE FOOTNOTES
13 BIRDSTONE
14 LION HEART
15 CASTLEDALE
16 TAPIT
17 PRO PRADO
18 SONG OF THE SWORD
19 LIMEHOUSE
20 QUINTONS GOLD RUSH
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04-28-2004, 03:16 PM
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#2
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Frontrunner
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Pasadena, CA
Posts: 2,797
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This looks like the wide-open field everyone is expecting it to be. We could very easily be looking at a record-high-priced favorite on Saturday. I believe the record was set by Harlan's Holiday a few years ago at 6-1, but I could be wrong.
Good luck, and good 'capping!
__________________
Aspiring turf writer and handicapper. Follow me on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne!
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04-28-2004, 03:26 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 16,838
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Master David getting the 2nd pick should move his stock up a bit. Even Frankel can't(well shouldn't) screw this one up!! 
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04-28-2004, 03:33 PM
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#4
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Predictions on post selections...LOL
10
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3
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1
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20
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04-28-2004, 03:38 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Funny how in an everyday race w/a normal sized field, the middle posts are usually the worst yet the Derby trainers would sell their souls for the 10 or 11 hole.
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04-28-2004, 04:53 PM
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#6
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Frontrunner
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Pasadena, CA
Posts: 2,797
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No way the first post picked is gonna be the ten-hole. I think Minister Eric'll break anywhere from the 5 to the 7.
And I honestly do not think very highly of Master David in this race. In the Wood, he looked like a winner at the top of the lane, but just couldn't hold off Tapit, and barely hung on for second. He might rate just off the hot early pace, and might be there around the far turn, but I expect horses like Tapit, Imperialism, and The Cliff's Edge to circle him, as well as the tiring frontrunners, going into the stretch.
__________________
Aspiring turf writer and handicapper. Follow me on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne!
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04-28-2004, 05:55 PM
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#7
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Support Res-Q Foundations
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: New York
Posts: 1,488
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NO WAY BIRDSTONE IS GOING TO GO OFF THE LONGEST SHOT ON THE BOARD .. 50-1 on Battaglia's Morning Line .. GIMMEE A BREAK!!!!!
__________________
"You don't throw a whole life away because it's banged up a little," (from Seabiscuit)
Last edited by Observer; 04-28-2004 at 05:57 PM.
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04-28-2004, 06:01 PM
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#8
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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People may bet him a little more because of Zito, but on my line, he would be about 1,000 to 1! No chance, no way, no how!
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04-28-2004, 06:07 PM
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#9
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DJ M.Walk
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Compton, CA!
Posts: 2,072
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Quote:
Originally posted by cjmilkowski
People may bet him a little more because of Zito, but on my line, he would be about 1,000 to 1! No chance, no way, no how!
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I'll bet $20 and take that 1,000 to 1!
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04-28-2004, 06:17 PM
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#10
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Support Res-Q Foundations
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: New York
Posts: 1,488
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I understand the difference between personal morning lines and track morning lines .. but on the official track morning line .. no way Birdstone should have been the longest shot on the line for the Derby .. it's even more bizarre that Birdstone is the only one listed above 30-1.
__________________
"You don't throw a whole life away because it's banged up a little," (from Seabiscuit)
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04-28-2004, 06:21 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Upstate NY
Posts: 943
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I was going to give Limehouse a long look in this race at good odds. I have to rethink things with the 1 post is not what I wanted.......Do you think Santos has to send him.
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04-28-2004, 06:35 PM
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#12
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Frontrunner
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Pasadena, CA
Posts: 2,797
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Is anyone else not surprised that The Cliff's Edge is the favorite over Smarty? On paper, these two are both very good horses, but Battaglia always seems to have a bias towards KY horses when he makes these odds-lines.
Tapit as the third choice? No way that's gonna stick. People are too much in awe of Dickinson for that to happen.
20-1 on Quentin's Gold Rush? He's breaking from the 20 hole, only has speed in his corner, will be battling with no less than five horses to his inside early on. And he's a shorter price than Birdstone? Makes no sense to me.
__________________
Aspiring turf writer and handicapper. Follow me on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne!
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04-28-2004, 09:26 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Smarty Jones benefits from a tepid pace to beat Borrego by that huge margin of a length and a half. So Borrego is 20-1 while Smarty is 9-2???There's no logical way you should have an odds differential like that for a length and a half, esp. when Borrego may have been up against the pace.
It doesn't end there. Lion Heart sets a very fast pace only to get run down by a neck or half length and The Cliffs Edge is 4-1 and Lion Heart is 10-1. The Cliffs Edge saved every bit of ground on the second turn and benefitted from the fast pace. One thing about The Cliffs Edge, according to Davidowitz, he hates crowding. He avoided that in the Blue Grass but is almost certain to be crowded on Saturday.
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