Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Hopefully both 
As for that 9TH race.....
The high ratings horses 1 & 11 according to your "Q" were big time late horses
the winner was Early....
Do/Does your handicapping reflect that in some ways on how the track runs?
Mike |
Yes, it does. But, in the program it is more along the lines of how turf races in general are ran. How the track is performing on a specific day is something for me to decide. Column Q is really odds based. I am hoping that it reflects a percentage of the odds for each horse that Late Pace accounts for. I am tracking this number to see if that is true or not.
In this race, I am looking at 3 things. The designated Briss Running style, Column F, (FRS) and Column G (R1).
Ratings are from 1-5, 1 being fastest, 5 being slowest.
Focusing on the
,
: and
.
E/P
54111 1
E/P
22211 2
P
45111 1
The first 3 numbers in FRS designate how I think each horse is rated in the race compared to the my race Par. think E1, E2, LP.
Now compare those #'s with the Briss Running style.
The
rates 5 and 4 in the first two, the
rates 2 and 2, and the
rates 4 and 5. Both the
and
have E/P running styles suggesting early involvement in the race. The
is rated better (lower) than the
. (22 compared to 54). To me, the
is much more likely to get into his running style than the
in this race. The
is a P runner and is rated 45, this is a good match for his running style. That is the E1 and E2 part.
Late Pace (the third #)
All three rate either 1 or 2. In the end the
,
and
really can't be tossed on this alone. All 3 are also rate 1 or 2 in R1, and now can not be tossed.
Now look at the
and
. The
is a E runner rated at 3 and 3, and in R1 5. The
is a P runner rated at 1 and 1, and in R1 4. The
can't get the lead and is a E runner, bad sign. He also rate 5 in R1. The
rates 1 and 1 as a P runner. Not where you want him. rated 4 in R1. Neither horse shows that in this race their running style is a good match and both are rated to high in both late pace and R1. Tosses.
That is where I am heading with this right now. We will see what happens.
/ 
