Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 02-16-2024, 10:00 AM   #1
zico20
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,987
Risen Star Stakes

For those of you who love crap shoots like last weeks Sam F Davis then you are in for another treat tomorrow. I can safely throw out the from all the exotics but after that the other nine all have a chance of at least hitting the super. A very strong case can be made for five of them to win the race and a decent case for the other four with some imagination.

My top pick is the Asmussen 1.4 million purchase Hall of Fame. I am taking a wait and see on the 2.3 million Sierra Leone. My longshot to hit the board is the . Out of his four races his best was on a fast track. Should get some clarity for the Derby as this is the first 50 point race and a win and your in.
__________________
You will never achieve 100% if 99% is okay!
zico20 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-16-2024, 04:00 PM   #2
PalaceOfFortLarned
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,106
This is without any doubt the strongest and deepest field of this 2024 calendar year regarding the Triple Crown trail we have seen yet.

A number of runners in here are also proven at 2 turns, and in high-priced races and Graded Stakes races. Would be no surprise to see a number of these end up in the gate come the first Saturday in May. Heck, all we have to do is look back to last year's Risen Star and there were 3 horses that made it into the Kentucky Derby field including the Runner-Up and Third place finishers.

No-chancers, not worth any mention.

Honor Marie: Excellent breeding with Honor Code/AP Indy on top and Smart Strike on the bottom. Distance doesn't look to be any problem for this one, and as they stretch out the better. Already has a win in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Has obviously enjoyed the Churchill strip, so can he ship and win elsewhere? Obvious Contender.

Sierra Leone: Solid back to back races to start his career for the $2.4M purchase and with Chad Brown in the barn. You have to like where this one is going. Gave it up a bit late in the G2 Remsen in this same 9F distance, but you can give him a bit of a pass in his 2nd career race in that one. Another Serious Contender.

Moonlight: Another nicely bred colt from the Pletcher barn that hasn't quite put it all together yet. Has burned some money as chalk in 3 of 4 races and 6/1 in his last while not hitting the board; but those races also had some pretty good fields. Another contender, but needs to move forward here.

Real Men Violin: Well-seasoned colt that hasn't done a whole lot wrong while hitting the board in every race running for big purses. Yet, he only has a single win with 4 runner-up finishes. Numbers are trending upwards and is making up ground late while never running less than a Mile in his career to date. Hard to dismiss.

Hall of Fame: Serious class jump for this $1.4M Asmussen trained colt. Absolutely walked in his last out at this venue, so has every right to keep moving forward in his 3rd career start. Yet another Contender.

Catching Freedom: Another solidly bred colt that has been dead chalk in all 3 career starts with 2 wins. Interesting to see the switch to Saez here and the recent works suggesting they'll look to get this guy more into the race early. And again, another Contender.

Cardinale: Pletcher entry looks up against it here, but hasn't ran a bad race in his two career starts. Should be full go to give some pressure presence on the . Hard to back, but adds needed pace to the race.

Resilience: Solidly improving Mott trainee finally busted his Maiden last out in his 4th career race with some solid late foot. No reason to believe this one won't enjoy more distance. Johnny V gets the call again, and could be looking to make a big splash on the scene. Price horse?

Track Phantom: Already has the two Triple Crown preps here at FG under his belt with solid gate to wire wins. Very impressive in his last, but this is a much much tougher bunch and this is not a friendly post for this guy. The local favorite will undoubtedly take some money, but tough to back at a short price against these.

Bee Dancer: Dallas Stewart and Corey Lanerie with a longshot. Both are notorious with price winners or even board hitters. 1 for 1 to date, and seems to be up against with much better bred horses he is running against while stretching out from 6F. Tough to see, but again, this is Dallas Stewart.

9/2 could well be the favorite in here as we have many of the countries top barns clashing heads with well intentioned and well-bred colts.

Last edited by PalaceOfFortLarned; 02-16-2024 at 04:06 PM.
PalaceOfFortLarned is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-16-2024, 07:27 PM   #3
Bennie
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,012
The horse, Moonlighting, is also entered in the 3rd race, an allow/opt claim race. Also drew the post there. Johnny V. has the mount in the 3rd and Geroux has the mount in the Risen Star as J.V. rides the Mott horse. First time lasix , permitted in the 3rd race, but not in the stakes race. We will see which race Pletcher decides to run him in.
Bennie is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2024, 08:18 AM   #4
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
Unfortunately, the rain began yesterday afternoon and we've had a steady drizzle all night, putting turf racing in danger today.
It should stop in the next hour but I fear the damage has been done.

Bummer
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2024, 09:56 AM   #5
woodbinepmi
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Baton Rouge, La
Posts: 1,796
The second and eighth have been taken off the turf as of right now.
__________________
@ShaTinRacing
woodbinepmi is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2024, 01:54 PM   #6
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
Think I'm going to make the #3 Honor Marie my top choice, but will use the #7 and #8 in my multi race plays.

The #3 is a closing type, but I love the 59.6 work a few weeks ago. He got an ideal setup last time out at CD, but he came storming home. I'm no expert on how a horse moves and their efficiency of stride and all that (so take this with a grain) but I really like the way this colt runs.
Needs some pace to develop, but that's possible with the 7,9,11 cutting the early splits.

Excellent field, and a tough one to figure out.

Good luck
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2024, 02:09 PM   #7
PalaceOfFortLarned
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,106
R3 the 1/2 highly followed Nash is headed and can't beat a 2nd timer.

Does it take quite a bit of steam out of Track Phantom?

Seems like this heavy track wet track isn't favoring any style quite yet.

Last edited by PalaceOfFortLarned; 02-17-2024 at 02:12 PM.
PalaceOfFortLarned is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2024, 03:21 PM   #8
rastajenk
Just Deplorable
 
rastajenk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,068
and are all in this weekend's Derby Future Pool, in case any of you see something you like for later.

Tuscan Sky and Nash from the third race are in it, too.
rastajenk is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2024, 04:52 PM   #9
PalaceOfFortLarned
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,106
Interesting 9th race.

Hall of Fame parked this
PalaceOfFortLarned is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2024, 07:09 PM   #10
PalaceOfFortLarned
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,106
Somehow alive to the late P4 with the

Cox could get the late meaningful double with the

Dutch
underneath

Throwing in on the bottom of the Super.
PalaceOfFortLarned is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2024, 07:45 PM   #11
PalaceOfFortLarned
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,106
Top 4 really separated themselves from the rest of a deep field.

Gotta watch all of these going forward.

broke great and got a realtively easy lead but was tough to pass.

obviously ran lights out in his 3rd start.

were right there as well. was wide the entire time and just kind of ran with the others. Interested to see how Mott may change this guy up.

didn't get the trip as expected, and was still right there. Gotta move forward with this one as well.

Great race.
PalaceOfFortLarned is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2024, 08:54 PM   #12
zico20
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,987
Brutal time of the race, 1:52 flat is horrible. The in race fractions were crawling compared to the Rachel Alexandra splits that were 6, 8, 6 lengths faster at the half, 3/4 and mile. I know they are older horses but the Mineshaft was even faster, 13, 16, 13 lengths faster than the Risen Star. I am not impressed with any of these off of this race, the speed figures have to come back very weak.
__________________
You will never achieve 100% if 99% is okay!
zico20 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2024, 09:26 PM   #13
PalaceOfFortLarned
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,106
Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20 View Post
Brutal time of the race, 1:52 flat is horrible. The in race fractions were crawling compared to the Rachel Alexandra splits that were 6, 8, 6 lengths faster at the half, 3/4 and mile. I know they are older horses but the Mineshaft was even faster, 13, 16, 13 lengths faster than the Risen Star. I am not impressed with any of these off of this race, the speed figures have to come back very weak.
Cant' disagree. I think the track went from sloppy, to muddy, to clumpy (I know not an official track measure).

These were good horses that have proven solid numbers from anywhere and everywhere at 2 turns. The top 4 separated themselves from a good and deep field.

I like all 4 going forward and see what they can do.
PalaceOfFortLarned is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2024, 09:32 PM   #14
zico20
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,987
Quote:
Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned View Post
Cant' disagree. I think the track went from sloppy, to muddy, to clumpy (I know not an official track measure).

These were good horses that have proven solid numbers from anywhere and everywhere at 2 turns. The top 4 separated themselves from a good and deep field.

I like all 4 going forward and see what they can do.
Have you handicapped the Sunland Derby yet? I know it probably isn't your cup of tea but let me know your thoughts.
__________________
You will never achieve 100% if 99% is okay!
zico20 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-18-2024, 10:45 AM   #15
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20 View Post
Brutal time of the race, 1:52 flat is horrible. The in race fractions were crawling compared to the Rachel Alexandra splits that were 6, 8, 6 lengths faster at the half, 3/4 and mile. I know they are older horses but the Mineshaft was even faster, 13, 16, 13 lengths faster than the Risen Star. I am not impressed with any of these off of this race, the speed figures have to come back very weak.
I'm guessing that there will be a split variant as the first half of the card played a lot faster than par compared to the second half.
Just a guess, but I think R1-R7 will be split from the last five dirt races.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply





Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:39 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.