Five of the top early pace runners are in seven gates, 2–8. Two more are banished to posts 17 & 18.
Hit Show is not one of them. He's pressed from fifth about two lengths back in his last three races. Best I can say about the post is that maybe he slides into decent mid-pack position behind
Two Phil's and saves ground. That puts him with
Tapit Trice, who actually has similar TFUS pace ratings. Maybe
still not a toss at 30-1.
Kind of sink or swim for
Verifying, but he should swim. I doubt
Two Phil's sends harder between him and
Confidence Game, but not like he's going to take back, either. The two "speeds" either side of him could usher him into good position. I figure
is the most likely leader, and still good for one of my keys at 20-1. Prefer
over
but not dead set against him.
No excuse for
Tapit Trice in terms of post draw, although he is sandwiched by early pace on either side. Maybe he can glide in just behind them for a good position as a late stalker or near the front of mid-pack. You can say much the same for
Kingsbarns next to him, probably a bit more forward. They seem fair-ish at ML, but 5-1 is pretty dear for anyone in here.
Mage is farthest outside of the early runners, not that the 8th is all that far, or that Mage is a die-hard speed. Assuming he breaks, maybe he tracks close to
Reincarnate, if that one sends, for a prime stalking position. I like both of these at their respective ML, and would be surprised to see
actually go as high as 50-1.
Assuming
Skinner is indifferent to the post (still waiting for TFUS to update with his PPs), we have
Practical Move. Some say he's primarily benefited from very favorable inside trips, which probably isn't in the cards from the 10-hole. Probably not molested by
Disarm to his outside, not that he wants to be left behind, and then
Jace's Road would seem to have to send desperately, even though that one ranks maybe 10th for early pace (still can't believe that critter is 15-1 on the ML). I was talking myself into
, now drifting back against him, tied for 4th on the ML.
Another indifferent post for
Sun Thunder, who looks to plod near last (and probably finish there). Less sure about
Angel of Empire. It shouldn't be compromised from there with penultimate early pace, but others with more interest early can match its late run. Kind of needs the field to sort itself out favorably inside. I'll play against that at 8-1 third choice.
Which brings us to the favorite,
Forte. Good news is, the field might sort itself out inside without posing much trouble if he keeps a decent pace. The bad news is, there are 14 horses to the inside, and another couple outside that wish they weren't. Just seems like a precarious position, and another chink in the armor of the favorite worth a play against at 3-1.
Nothing more to say about tossable
Raise Cain, but
Derma Sotogake and
Rocket Can look to have disappointing posts for runners that would do well to get involved early. Maybe that deflects money from
, who retains the speed to salvage a position and the stamina to finish. He's never been this wide, but he has faced bigger fields than most. If he drifts up from 10-1, fifth choice, I'm keen on him. I couldn't see
Rocket Can before the post draw, and I definitely can't now, although I know some guys were making a case for him among the long shots.
Finally,
Lord Miles and
Continuar are probably not particularly compromised by their uninspiring posts. I did like the former for a possible piece at a huge price, not sure that changes much. Maybe the latter outruns his odds, but only because they'll be so high, inflated just a bit more by the post (but deflated by being highest and hopes for a repeat of last year's upset). Don't think I can fit him in even the most generous swing.
