Hansen

[Steve R]

Originally Posted by cj

That is what matters. I hope you get that I wasn't knocking you there.

As for the data being close, that is easy to do. But, it doesn't mean individual horses will run within a half length when switching surfaces. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. I'm sure you know that.

I was only pointing out that my figures don't have the dirt/AWS bias that many attribute to BSFs, not that an individual horse necessarily will handle both surfaces equally. OTOH, I do believe Hansen is physiologically superior to Union Rags, although physiological superiority doesn't always trump class and distance capability. At this point I think Union Rags does have the greater TC potential and is more likely to stay a classic distance.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by cj

Andy Serling picked him as well on the NYRA site.

I picked him in my motel room the night before but didn't bet him because I felt the odds offered were too low relative to his chances of winning. Picking and wagering are completely different animals.

[cj]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

I picked him in my motel room the night before but didn't bet him because I felt the odds offered were too low relative to his chances of winning. Picking and wagering are completely different animals.

Sure, they are, but Serling bet him as well. It was in response to someone mentioning no public selectors "picked" this horse. I think he was bet about right by the public.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Steve R

My figures tell a different story. I have Hansen with the third fastest MSW figure for any 2yo in 2011 and I have his KY Cup Juvenile as the fastest 2yo stakes race prior to the BC Juvenile. I also think that Hansen ran against a bias as the other two multi-turn dirt races were won by horses running 9th early. If one wants to cite Game On Dude as an argument against a front-end bias, well he did lose and he is a horse that could very well be Horse of the Year, so one could argue his was also a special effort under the circumstances. IMO, at this stage of their careers, Hansen is clearly the best 2yo in North America. The bigger concern for me about his potential is the lack of any significant class in his female family. The last direct SW produced by any mare in his female line was in 1980 and the last graded stakes winner was in 1973. That doesn't necessarily mean he won't be a monster, it's just something to consider.

Making corrections for pace and surfaces was not something I included in my analysis or that is included in Beyer figures. I also had his previous race as a fast pace and thought he "could possibly" run faster on the switch to dirt. I did not think he had run better than UR going into that race though.

Personally, I think UR was much better on Saturday too.

I am open to the idea that CD was a bit tiring on Saturday, but Hansen was loose on the lead, Creative Cause was the only quality chaser and he finished OK, so it didn't take much out of him, and UR lost somewhere between 8-10 lengths being wide depending on how many feet you assign to a length. It's somewhere between difficult and impossible for me to believe that the track condition was anywhere near as much of a disadvantage as UR's ground loss and I'm not not even that literal about ground loss.

[Leparoux]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Making corrections for pace and surfaces was not something I included in my analysis or that is included in Beyer figures. I also had his previous race as a fast pace and thought he "could possibly" run faster on the switch to dirt. I did not think he had run better than UR going into that race though.

Personally, I think UR was much better on Saturday too.

I am open to the idea that CD was a bit tiring on Saturday, but Hansen was loose on the lead, Creative Cause was the only quality chaser and he finished OK, so it didn't take much out of him, and UR lost somewhere between 8-10 lengths being wide depending on how many feet you assign to a length. It's somewhere between difficult and impossible for me to believe that the track condition was anywhere near as much of a disadvantage as UR's ground loss and I'm not not even that literal about ground loss.

I'm not sure how "loose on the lead" he was. Those fractions were pretty solid. I can see both sides of the argument that as to which horse was actually better on Saturday. Saying one was "much better" is silly IMO. Hansen was very gritty and ran a great race. To each his own though.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Leparoux

I'm not sure how "loose on the lead" he was. Those fractions were pretty solid. I can see both sides of the argument that as to which horse was actually better on Saturday. Saying one was "much better" is silly IMO. Hansen was very gritty and ran a great race. To each his own though.

If they ran 1 1/16th and Hansen could relax a little more, I think it would be very close. At longer, I'd probably favor Union Rags right now, but then again, he'd be a shorter price so maybe not.

[Leparoux]

Originally Posted by cj

If they ran 1 1/16th and Hansen could relax a little more, I think it would be very close. At longer, I'd probably favor Union Rags right now, but then again, he'd be a shorter price so maybe not.

[JustRalph]

I would like to see him on the turf

[cj]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I would like to see him on the turf

For the contast in color? He doesn't run or look like a turf horse.

[RXB]

I see neither Hansen nor Union Rags as Ky Derby winners. Hansen's style is anathema to winning the Derby and I don't like Union Rags' pedigree for anything beyond 1 1/16.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by cj

For the contast in color? He doesn't run or look like a turf horse.

just for fun. I love speed horses on the turf at the longer distances. Now that you mention it.......the color would be fun too.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Leparoux

I'm not sure how "loose on the lead" he was. Those fractions were pretty solid. I can see both sides of the argument that as to which horse was actually better on Saturday. Saying one was "much better" is silly IMO. Hansen was very gritty and ran a great race. To each his own though.

I understand what you are saying.

It's a matter of weighing 8-10 lengths of ground loss vs. being the horse doing some work on the lead on a track that wasn't particularly great for speed.

In my estimation, Hansen wasn't working particularly hard on the lead to the point I would say "Wow, that was a tough trip". He wasn't dueling and the fractions weren't killer. He ran a good race.

I think UR's ground loss was a pretty legitimate negative. He wasn't just loafing on the first turn and his move on the second turn started early, was sustained, and very wide.

I would take UR in the rematch all day long under neutral conditions. That's not the same as saying Hansen was lucky or that either is a derby horse that can get 10F, I just think UR was much better Saturday.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by nijinski

Papillon ,albeit most know Hansen is officially grey . he is rare though . You just don't see that many two year olds on the track at age two looking that white.

yes, i know. that had been my point in my my original post. in the post you quoted of mine, i was just responding to someone hectoring me about how hansen is and always will be a grey, and how horses can only be white if registered white at birth, after i had said hansen might be truly white by derby day, given how bizarrely pale he is already.

it's kinda funny, you know? you say that hansen's like something out of a fairy tale and nobody bats an eye. i say he's like something out of a Disney movie and i get flack, invoking the specter of zenyatta-tards...go figure...i've been online long enough to know that is usually a bad sign of a public forum that is in reality a private club...it's kinda sad tbh because there just really aren't too many place to talk horses online--and tvg's forum's is so dysfunctional it would make encyclopedia dramatica proud....sigh...

I also want to mention since you brought up knowledge and breeding that Union Rags may have some stamina from Tempo . I watched Tempo's dam many years ago and that one could run all day. We'll have to wait and see .

good call on the dam side, union rags looks to have more stamina than most dixie unions, but we'll see, even indian charlies with liver disease can get 1 1/16

Originally Posted by FantasticDan

I had a chunky win bet all ready to go for Hansen.. knew I likely wouldn't get 10/1, but I was hoping for 7 or 8/1. I had to make my final bets and leave the track just as his race opened up. He was 9/2 at the time (which disappointed me), and so I quickly decided to take the aforementioned chunk and use it to towards my Classic bet instead.

Typical of how my day went.

where'd you place your bet at? i got 7-1 on hansen for my $100 to win bet on tvg, and that was the same price they were quoting on espn at post time.

I would take UR in the rematch all day long under neutral conditions. That's not the same as saying Hansen was lucky or that either is a derby horse that can get 10F, I just think UR was much better Saturday.

from your lips to all the other bettors' ears! i'd like to keep my future odds on hansen as long as possible.

my fear about hansen is that both his sire and his grandsire had to be retired as 3 year olds because of injuries, i don't have any questions about whether he can get 1 1/4, he'll get it, if he stays sound. my only question is whether he'll stay sound. if he does, he'll vindicate himself (heck--he already has vindicated himself, and me too come to think of it).

[RXB]

Originally Posted by papillon

good call on the dam side, union rags looks to have more stamina than most dixie unions

Tempo has not been a source of stamina for her many previous North American runners. 82 dirt sprint starts versus 8 dirt route starts.

[Leparoux]

How about the Derby winner and BC Juvenile winner coming from Turfway Park this year!!