Hansen

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by point given

Thanks for the Watchmaker comment , here is his take from his blog

" also want to say a brief word about Hansen, the flashy grey, Mike Maker-trained Tapit colt who won his debut at Turfway Park early this month by just over 12 lengths, and who came back to win Saturday’s Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway by just over 13 lengths.
Now, before anyone goes too overboard on Hansen, keep in mind these three things: He has yet to race on dirt, the field he beat Saturday was weak, and despite the fact that he ran away from his opposition through the stretch Saturday, he was actually a tired horse. Just look at the late fractions. But Hansen had a right to be tired late in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, and that is part of the reason why he is intriguing.

Hansen set the pace again Saturday, posting fractions of 23.83, 46.91, and 1:11.48. His pace was much faster than the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies pace (24.12, 48.30, and 1:14.10), or what older females went in the Distaff (24.48, 48.43, and 1:12.73). Hansen’s pace was even faster than what older males went in the ostensible feature, the WinStar Kentucky Cup (24.47, 47.97, and 1:11.82). That Hansen, off of only one sprint race, can set that kind of pace going two turns and still win by a double digit margin regardless of what he was up against makes him, for now, at least, one to keep an eye on. "

I agree. The pace that Hansen set was very fast; much faster than the 2 older horse stakes at same distance. Also, its not surprising for 2 year olds stretching out to decelerate significantly. And its even more impressive to do it over that tiring surface at TP. I'd be surprised if this horse didn't take to dirt. The Distaff winner, despite a much slower opening 1/2, came from dead last to win.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by papillon

and given that hansen went a mile and 1/16 in only his 2nd start, after having just raced 2 weeks before, while under a hand ride the entire way and setting some of the fastest internal fractions of the day. it doesn't really matter that hansen beat nothing--he was running his own race from start to finish, after taking the lead from the far outside post.

his final time may have been uninspiring, but he wasn't asked for anything in the stretch--and really, who, besides a sadist would press a horse for a showy time, when you've already got the race in hand by a baker's dozen?

if he's the real deal, he will be god-send for the sport--the general public will fall in love with this rare white thoroughbred (i know he's really grey, but he's the palest grey 2 yr old i've ever seen, and will probably be truly white by the KY derby), who runs with abandon, leaving the field far behind him. he's like something out of a disney movie.

anyway, i have a feeling that if hansen had done this in ny, he'd be hailed the next jesus-horse. after all THAS only had to win one allowance race after having been soundly beaten repeatedly, for no reason other than that he sucked, by the other 3 yr olds last spring, in order to be reborn as the next worldbeater and catapulted to the 3rd best 3 yo just for winning one race while carrying 10 lbs less weight than the fast closing 2nd (who didn't do anything all year but win the belmont ffs)....i have to go back to following racing in bubble...the want of logic and excess of hypocrisy does nothing but upset me...

I'll address the emboldened comments in order...

He was ridden and whipped through the stretch.

The above also applies to the second comment.

No he won't. In case you're not aware, there is currently an exceptional grey filly racing, named Winter Memories, and so far, she hasn't exactly been a godsend for the sport.

And, finally, if he were racing in NY he would be getting a similar reception....a promising 2YO that is likely looking better than he is because of the poor competition he has faced. Comparing his effort to that of To Honor and Serve on 8/26 only proves further how off base you are. To Honor and Serve was involved in wicked fast fractions, so fast that the other speed, a horse that routinely runs figures in the mid to high 80s, was virtually eased, and still drew off to an authoritative and fast victory. He followed that up with a fairly impressive win in the PA Derby.

Henri Charriere would not be pleased.

[Cardus]

Originally Posted by papillon

it'is exasperating that hansen is getting poo-pooed, given that the farthest any of watchmaker's top five 2 year olds has gone so far is 6 furlongs, and that there is a world of difference between 6 furlongs and a mile and 1/16, and given that hansen went a mile and 1/16 in only his 2nd start, after having just raced 2 weeks before, while under a hand ride the entire way and setting some of the fastest internal fractions of the day. it doesn't really matter that hansen beat nothing--he was running his own race from start to finish, after taking the lead from the far outside post.

his final time may have been uninspiring, but he wasn't asked for anything in the stretch--and really, who, besides a sadist would press a horse for a showy time, when you've already got the race in hand by a baker's dozen?

if he's the real deal, he will be god-send for the sport--the general public will fall in love with this rare white thoroughbred (i know he's really grey, but he's the palest grey 2 yr old i've ever seen, and will probably be truly white by the KY derby), who runs with abandon, leaving the field far behind him. he's like something out of a disney movie.

anyway, i have a feeling that if hansen had done this in ny, he'd be hailed the next jesus-horse. after all THAS only had to win one allowance race after having been soundly beaten repeatedly, for no reason other than that he sucked, by the other 3 yr olds last spring, in order to be reborn as the next worldbeater and catapulted to the 3rd best 3 yo just for winning one race while carrying 10 lbs less weight than the fast closing 2nd (who didn't do anything all year but win the belmont ffs)....i have to go back to following racing in bubble...the want of logic and excess of hypocrisy does nothing but upset me...

Your post is like something out of the Zenyatta Internet Land era.

[OTM Al]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I'll address the emboldened comments in order...

He was ridden and whipped through the stretch.

The above also applies to the second comment.

No he won't. In case you're not aware, there is currently an exceptional grey filly racing, named Winter Memories, and so far, she hasn't exactly been a godsend for the sport.

And, finally, if he were racing in NY he would be getting a similar reception....a promising 2YO that is likely looking better than he is because of the poor competition he has faced. Comparing his effort to that of To Honor and Serve on 8/26 only proves further how off base you are. To Honor and Serve was involved in wicked fast fractions, so fast that the other speed, a horse that routinely runs figures in the mid to high 80s, was virtually eased, and still drew off to an authoritative and fast victory. He followed that up with a fairly impressive win in the PA Derby.

Henri Charriere would not be pleased.

I'm shocked you didn't address the fact that horses don't "become" white, they are registered that way or not, but then there was a lot of ground to cover here as it was....a lot of ground.

[Not4Love]

Please tell me the horses that have actually gone on to productive careers
after winning the kentucky juvenile. SINCE THE INTALLATION OF POLYCRAP!!!!!! This discussion is a joke. Please wake up and realize that Polycrap is ruining horses.

[toussaud]

Originally Posted by Not4Love

Please tell me the horses that have actually gone on to productive careers
after winning the kentucky juvenile. SINCE THE INTALLATION OF POLYCRAP!!!!!! This discussion is a joke. Please wake up and realize that Polycrap is ruining horses.

i can name quite a few horses that were very good on "polycrap" as 2 YO's, including last year's 3YO horse of the year.

I hope you aren't this bias when handicapping.



edit: Actually i do hope you are this bias when it comes to handicapping.

[FantasticDan]

Originally Posted by OTM Al

I'm shocked you didn't address the fact that horses don't "become" white, they are registered that way or not, but then there was a lot of ground to cover here as it was....a lot of ground.

I think papillon was simply saying that Hansen is a very white "grey", and will likely get even lighter/whiter, as that is common in greys as they mature.

Hansen is a very interesting and talented young colt. His connections certainly seem over the moon with him. Not sure what else needs to be said..?

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by FantasticDan

I think papillon was simply saying that Hansen is a very white "grey", and will likely get even lighter/whiter, as that is common in greys as they mature.

Hansen is a very interesting and talented young colt. His connections certainly seem over the moon with him. Not sure what else needs to be said..?

What's wrong with a sane and reasonable analysis of his performance?

To me, over the top, irrational exhuberance serves nobody well, and certainly not novices. Honest critical analysis of horse races, as well as individual performances, is far more likely to help the game than an unrealistic assessment ever will. We need people to bet in an informed manner, one that is less likely to discourage them in the long run, and pretending horses are performing in manners that they quite simply aren't is not going to achieve that goal.

Here are two scenerios....the uninformed are told that Hansen is some sort of superhorse, one that flies like Pegasus, under no urging whatsoever. He runs next in the BC, shows unrestrained speed, doesn't particularly handle the dirt, and gets drowned. The misled novices shake their head over this unpredictable game, disappointed once again.

Now the second scenerio....Hansen's performance is described reasonably accurately, his fast early pace is explained along with the slow final time. His supposed easy victory is actually shown to not have been quite as easy, and his margin of victory is shown to be as much a function of his competition as anything else. The surface question is also accurately explained. Now, he comes into the BC as a possibly overbet, and vulnerable, entrant. Because of this explanation, when he invariably disappoints, people are encouraged that the game is not as inexplicable as they might have thought, they might even win some money, and thus are more likely to continue playing in the future.

Yeah, I get that my explanations are overkill.....but I also know that you are far better off explaining things logically and intelligently to beginners than feeding them misleading information.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Not4Love

Please tell me the horses that have actually gone on to productive careers
after winning the kentucky juvenile. SINCE THE INTALLATION OF POLYCRAP!!!!!! This discussion is a joke. Please wake up and realize that Polycrap is ruining horses.

Hard spun in the Lanes End Stakes........is as close I can get off the top of my head

[toussaud]

his pedigree is quite interesting.

Tapit can get you a good dirt horse, but the horses he throws seem to really do take to the turf/polytrack

even more interesting is his damside. The exact opposite. They are all dirt horses. HIs dam, his half sister, heck even sir cat if i am not mistaken is the sire of surf cat, the old Bruce Headly horse that hit an absolute brick wall in California the day they went from dirt to polytrack.

Looking at the overall picture i don't think the dirt would be my biggest concern with him. it's there but it's not by biggest concern. The talent level is my biggest concern.

[toussaud]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Hard spun in the Lanes End Stakes........is as close I can get off the top of my head

umm... animal kingdom?

[Cardus]

Originally Posted by the little guy

What's wrong with a sane and reasonable analysis of his performance?

To me, over the top, irrational exhuberance serves nobody well, and certainly not novices. Honest critical analysis of horse races, as well as individual performances, is far more likely to help the game than an unrealistic assessment ever will. We need people to bet in an informed manner, one that is less likely to discourage them in the long run, and pretending horses are performing in manners that they quite simply aren't is not going to achieve that goal.

Here are two scenerios....the uninformed are told that Hansen is some sort of superhorse, one that flies like Pegasus, under no urging whatsoever. He runs next in the BC, shows unrestrained speed, doesn't particularly handle the dirt, and gets drowned. The misled novices shake their head over this unpredictable game, disappointed once again.

Now the second scenerio....Hansen's performance is described reasonably accurately, his fast early pace is explained along with the slow final time. His supposed easy victory is actually shown to not have been quite as easy, and his margin of victory is shown to be as much a function of his competition as anything else. The surface question is also accurately explained. Now, he comes into the BC as a possibly overbet, and vulnerable, entrant. Because of this explanation, when he invariably disappoints, people are encouraged that the game is not as inexplicable as they might have thought, they might even win some money, and thus are more likely to continue playing in the future.

Yeah, I get that my explanations are overkill.....but I also know that you are far better off explaining things logically and intelligently to beginners than feeding them misleading information.

Amen bruddah!

[GlenninOhio]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I'll address the emboldened comments in order...

He was ridden and whipped through the stretch.

The above also applies to the second comment.

I watched the stretch drive live from the rail on the apron and, to use the Kentucky vernacular, that horse wasn't just whipped, he was "whupped".

Seriously, I was surprised at the extent to which he was ridden out, to the point where I felt the connections would (or should) find fault with it. If you watch the replay, Lebron looks back late and makes a feeble attempt to make the horse looked "covered up" for a stride or two shy of the finish line, which fooled no one.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by GlenninOhio

I watched the stretch drive live from the rail on the apron and, to use the Kentucky vernacular, that horse wasn't just whipped, he was "whupped".

Seriously, I was surprised at the extent to which he was ridden out, to the point where I felt the connections would (or should) find fault with it. If you watch the replay, Lebron looks back late and makes a feeble attempt to make the horse looked "covered up" for a stride or two shy of the finish line, which fooled no one.

I guess that will make it easier for the connections to get a top rider for the BC.

[FantasticDan]

Originally Posted by the little guy

What's wrong with a sane and reasonable analysis of his performance?

Watchmaker's comments were quoted earlier; I find them completely "sane and reasonable".. to sum up: let's not get carried away etc, but Hansen is nonetheless intriguing. While you've already dismissed Hansen as a horse that will "invariably disappoint", others choose to believe he might actually turn out to be very good, or daresay, something special. At this point I'd say the jury is still out on either estimation. But other than the one poster, nobody on this thread could be described as going over the top or being irrational.

Hansen got an 89 Beyer for his first race.. what was the # for this last one? Have there been many 2yos thus far that can top those numbers?