Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 10-15-2020, 10:53 AM   #16
Wiley
Horse Racing Connossieur
 
Wiley's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Michigan
Posts: 639
Quote:
Originally Posted by woodbinepmi View Post
Loved playing the 4,5 furlong races at old Jefferson Downs in NOLA, Ricky Faul or John Herdes fighting for the lead.
I was there with buddies on most summer nights during the 80's. I will add Mario Torres, Kelly Broussard Jr, Tracy Hebert and Nelson Menard (he was an especially good gate rider) to your list. I think Hye Dickran and Eustoo were a couple of burners there, maybe held the 4.5 and 6.5 F race records. Loved the two turn 6.5 F races as well, probably better at those in picking winners than the 4.5 F races.
Wiley is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-15-2020, 01:14 PM   #17
shoelessjoe
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 646
I used to do very well at Charles Town this was before the
casino and the the purses were low. Now with the purses higher I have
trouble due to the shippers coming in and how to gauge them.
shoelessjoe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-15-2020, 01:19 PM   #18
shoelessjoe
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 646
Wiley

Was Charlie Walker stabled there back then? He used to be one of the
leading trainers at Charles Town but left on bad terms and went down
that way. I loved the combo of him with Troy Roberts as his jockey good
gate boy.
shoelessjoe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-15-2020, 01:31 PM   #19
Wiley
Horse Racing Connossieur
 
Wiley's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Michigan
Posts: 639
Shoelessjoe,
No Cracker Walker ran the Fairgrounds/Louisiana Downs circuit. He might of on occasion, brought a horse in for a stakes at JD but he was not stabled there.

One of my favorite trainers at the FG's. Ronald Ardoin was he go to rider, he was also a great gate rider. Remember Scottie Will was a horse Walker claimed and won a couple of small stakes at the FG's with. Fun times.
Wiley is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-15-2020, 01:44 PM   #20
shoelessjoe
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 646
Wiley your right thanks

CJ thanks for the breakdown
shoelessjoe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-15-2020, 02:05 PM   #21
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 14,916
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I would love to build a model broken into two ratings "speed" and "stamina".

I want to know who is the fastest horse for around 4 furlongs and who has the most stamina.

Then I want to know whether today's conditions (distance, surface, bias, pace, competitive setup) favor one or the other and to what degree.

But stamina is a tricky thing to measure because it involves both how far the horse can run and remain competitive and the quality of the horses it can do it against. It also sometimes requires seeing how it performs in a really tough highly competitive and demanding race.

Speed can also be tricky because on turf, many horses are doing their fastest running at the end, but those last quarters are partially related to the early pace.
If I understand you right, you're saying that "stamina" is how far they can continue the ... something.

How would we define that "something?"
Dave Schwartz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-15-2020, 03:16 PM   #22
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
If I understand you right, you're saying that "stamina" is how far they can continue the ... something.

How would we define that "something?"
I'll try to explain it.

For early speed I'm asking, if 2 horses give me their best out of the gate for 3-4 furlongs, which one is faster?

For stamina I'm asking, if this is a very demanding racetrack or the race development is very demanding which of these horses is going to handle it the best and keep running well at the end.

The first one is fairly straight forward. I can use pace figures, how often the horse gets the lead, the quality of horses has he outrun, how hard has he been used to get the lead etc.. I think I can turn that into some kind of number without too much of a problem.

When it comes to stamina maybe it's some combination of distance, class, and performance against tough trips, but I'm not sure how to turn it into a number.

Closing speed on turf in another toughie because the early pace/closing time formula isn't very obvious either. The faster they go early, the slower they'll come home and vice versa, but it's not a 1 to 1 relationship. 1 second faster early does not mean 1 second slower late or vice versa.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 10-15-2020 at 03:21 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2020, 04:40 PM   #23
mountainman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 3,748
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I could, and it almost assuredly be very good. But I find this of little value. The value is in predicting which horses will be first early and seeing how they do.
So true. And I 've read that proponents of speed-point systems profit from the "universal bias, " but my gut says it is leaders that didn't project to lead that drive the ROI up.

Also, I've learned that early speed is surprisingly often a by product of sharp form or innate superiority, rather than an intrinsic trait. Plus, lots of horses change running styles (and not always in accordance with distance or strategy) from season to season, or even within the same campaign.

And how about the "super trainer" factor? In many instances, the horses they improve on become front runners despite having no such history.

Thanks for posting the stats. It's been awhile since I profiled a track or saw up-to-date numbers on the strike rate of first call leaders. Maybe I misremember, but the win rate seems higher than 10 or 15 years ago. Could this be attributable to diminishing field sizes?

Last edited by mountainman; 10-16-2020 at 04:43 PM.
mountainman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2020, 04:52 PM   #24
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 44,504
Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
So true. And I 've read that proponents of speed-point systems profit from the "universal bias, " but my gut says it is leaders that didn't project to lead that drive the ROI up.

Also, I've learned that early speed is surprisingly often a by product of sharp form or innate superiority, rather than an intrinsic trait. Plus, lots of horses change running styles (and not always in accordance with distance or strategy) from season to season, or even within the same campaign.

And how about the "super trainer" factor? In many instances, the horses they improve on become front runners despite having no such history.

Thanks for posting the stats. It's been awhile since I profiled a track or saw up-to-date numbers on the strike rate of first call leaders. Maybe I misremember, but the win rate seems higher than 10 or 15 years ago. Could this be attributable to diminishing field sizes?
No problem.

I do think field size is a factor for sure. I broke this down by field size once and it played out as expected regardless of distance and surface.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2020, 02:10 PM   #25
mountainman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 3,748
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post

But stamina is a tricky thing to measure because it involves both how far the horse can run and remain competitive and the quality of the horses it can do it against. It also sometimes requires seeing how it performs in a really tough highly competitive and demanding race.
I think the elusive quality "stamina" would be very difficult to boil down to a number. Certainly, pace and class play a role, as does distance. But the distance factor can be tricky because it is inter-dependent on pace, and what truly distinguishes the differences between distances is often field composition, rather than furlongs covered. And field composition strongly relates to and determines early position.

To me, stamina ties in closely with the will to win and compete. Sometimes, no matter the distance, certain horses will habitually "hang," and you can almost SEE them flinch in the late stages when abreast another runner.

Records with a disproportionate number of minor placings often indicate a lack of stamina. Or heart, or both. In those cases less distance can be the cure.

I have also observed that smooth movers often possess more stamina than their rocky counterparts.

For these reasons, and more, i find personal observation and intimate knowledge of a horse indispensable in assessing stamina.

Incidentally, the trap novice, and even intermediate, players usually fall into is conflating stamina with running style. The immortal Dr Fager and his arch rival Damascus exemplified this in historic fashion. No less an authority than Tom Ainslie expressed surprise in one of his books that Dr Fager could actually get 1 and a quarter miles, but failed to observe that which of the two displayed superior "stamina" depended almost entirely on pace and flow.

Last edited by mountainman; 10-17-2020 at 02:13 PM.
mountainman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2020, 04:27 PM   #26
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
Incidentally, the trap novice, and even intermediate, players usually fall into is conflating stamina with running style. The immortal Dr Fager and his arch rival Damascus exemplified this in historic fashion. No less an authority than Tom Ainslie expressed surprise in one of his books that Dr Fager could actually get 1 and a quarter miles, but failed to observe that which of the two displayed superior "stamina" depended almost entirely on pace and flow.
This is exactly what I'm getting at.

In terms of speed, imo there's little doubt Fager was faster than Damascus. I would argue that Damascus had more natural stamina. If they went far enough, my guess is that even controlling the pace may not have helped Fager.

They were different horses with a different balance of each. Which of them won was dependent on the distance, how the race developed, how the track was playing etc..

Another theoretical example might be Fager and Slew.

I think Fager was probably a little faster than Slew too, but we saw the kind of stamina Slew had in the JCGC where he dealt with an extreme pace, kept running, and was actually coming again at 12F. I doubt Fager could have dealt with that pace and kept going at 12F. Slew was freakish in that he a huge abundance of both.

But converting these "stamina" type questions into a number, putting it next to "speed" number, and then asking who has the better balance for today's race given the distance, how the track is playing, and how the race sets up is hard if you don't have a stamina number.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 10-17-2020 at 04:40 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2020, 04:46 PM   #27
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,363
All of this gets me back to these 4.5 races.

We know that speed is super dominant in these short dashes. So if you had a speed number and stamina number, you could focus more attention on the speed number. If it was a 7F dirt race on a tiring tack in a race loaded with speed, you might focus more attention on the stamina side than you would normally.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2020, 04:57 PM   #28
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 102,958
You mean a number like CJ's Early and Late Pace numbers?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2020, 05:34 PM   #29
FoolishPleasure
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Posts: 3
IMO a big key is 4.5f early speed is 4.5f early speed-
early speed at 5f or longer need not apply.
FoolishPleasure is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2020, 07:02 PM   #30
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
You mean a number like CJ's Early and Late Pace numbers?
CJ's Early and Late Pace figures are very good, but they are measuring early and late speed, not stamina. It's this 3rd category that is a little fuzzy in my thinking.

There are horses that will have terrific late pace numbers, but if you stretch them out another furlong or two they can't finish because they don't have the stamina to finish fast after running a little further.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
How do you prefer your Coffee !?
Cream and Sugar - 28.57%
30 Votes
Cream only - 20.00%
21 Votes
Black - 41.90%
44 Votes
Decaf - 9.52%
10 Votes
Espresso - 12.38%
13 Votes
Starbucks etc... - 9.52%
10 Votes
Other - 23.81%
25 Votes
Total Votes: 105
This poll is closed.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:32 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2020 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.