Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 10-14-2020, 05:49 PM   #16
BarchCapper
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Hot Springs Village, AR
Posts: 306
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaron View Post
Dave,
So true. I went from betting almost 90% New York tracks to about 50%.What is interesting, at least to me is that my results seem to be better away from NY. Sometimes not knowing as much about the human element works in my favor.
Any thoughts ?
We moved to the Hot Springs area right at the beginning of 2019. I enjoyed a respectable season at Oaklawn, attending most every day, with results improving as the year went on and I got more familiar with the racing and the horses.

As 2019 moved into 2020, I got more connected with some people in the racing community. Once again attending most of the days until the COVID spectator shutdown, I found it a little more challenging in the 2020 season to look just at the horses and the numbers without being affected by my developing opinions (both favorable and unfavorable) about "the human element" connected to those horses.
__________________
Tom in HSV
——————
”You know what they say: Nothing ventured, nothing ...ventured” - Vicki in Let It Ride
BarchCapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2020, 09:53 AM   #17
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,363
I think it depends on how much track specific information you use in your game. If a lot of your plays involve trainers, trainer jockey combos, understanding the post position and other biases at a track, you'll be at a disadvantage at tracks you don't know at well.

These days, I think the goal should probably be to try to focus on smaller and mid sized tracks. I don't have data to support this, but when I play stakes I feel like I can find live horses at way better prices at the non major tracks on both coasts.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2020, 02:01 PM   #18
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 14,916
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
These days, I think the goal should probably be to try to focus on smaller and mid sized tracks. I don't have data to support this, but when I play stakes I feel like I can find live horses at way better prices at the non major tracks on both coasts.
Ironically, these will be the most difficult races to profit from because the pool competition will be highest.

Higher takeouts generally result in higher rebates.

Higher rebates typically make the track more appealing to whales.

Therefore, a greater percentage of pool money will be wagered at a small track compared to a large track. My math consultant and I worked together on this and came up with a huge difference.

The estimates were that the highest "rebate differential" tracks (such as MNR, CT, PRM, etc) would result in almost 35% of the pool being comprised of whale money.

Meanwhile, the lower-rebate tracks (SA, BEL, etc.) would be more likely in a range of 4% to 8%.

An apt metaphor would be a poker room with two tables. Both tables have the same rules.
Table A:
Lower Net Rake
3.5 world class players.

Table B
Higher net rake
1 world class player
Table B is likely to be the easier table to beat.
Dave Schwartz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-17-2020, 05:32 PM   #19
Maximillion
Registered User
 
Maximillion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,002
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think it depends on how much track specific information you use in your game. If a lot of your plays involve trainers, trainer jockey combos, understanding the post position and other biases at a track, you'll be at a disadvantage at tracks you don't know at well.

These days, I think the goal should probably be to try to focus on smaller and mid sized tracks. I don't have data to support this, but when I play stakes I feel like I can find live horses at way better prices at the non major tracks on both coasts.
Remington is really good imo if your looking for a smaller track to play on a regular basis.
Maximillion is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-18-2020, 05:45 PM   #20
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
Ironically, these will be the most difficult races to profit from because the pool competition will be highest.

I understand what you are saying, but my experience playing at tracks other than the majors in NY and CA suggests I can get better value on any hidden notes I have at second tier tracks.

Even CD and KEE seem better to me than NY and CA.

Maybe there is way more dead money in the pools at the 2nd tier tracks whereas in NY and CA there are a ton of sharp players other than just whales????
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 10-18-2020 at 05:49 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-18-2020, 08:15 PM   #21
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 14,916
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I understand what you are saying, but my experience playing at tracks other than the majors in NY and CA suggests I can get better value on any hidden notes I have at second tier tracks.

Even CD and KEE seem better to me than NY and CA.

Maybe there is way more dead money in the pools at the 2nd tier tracks whereas in NY and CA there are a ton of sharp players other than just whales????
I'm glad your experience is so positive.

I can only say that it is just easier for me to win at the better class tracks. The horses simply run back to their numbers better.
Dave Schwartz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-18-2020, 08:48 PM   #22
46zilzal
velocitician
 
46zilzal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 23,361
I have found that for short periods of time, usually in the cold of winter, smaller venues get so early biased that they are great places to score cash....as long as the bias lasts.
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
46zilzal is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-19-2020, 09:24 AM   #23
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
I can only say that it is just easier for me to win at the better class tracks. The horses simply run back to their numbers better.
There's no question about that.

When I bet out of town, it's usually on the higher quality races.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-26-2020, 11:27 PM   #24
dryrunguy
Registered User
 
dryrunguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Dry Run, PA, USA
Posts: 31
A lot of what has been posted in this thread resonates with me and aligns with my limited experience as a handicapper. Thanks to all who took the time to share their experiences.

I have gone through what I'll call phases. I had a Del Mar phase, a Santa Anita phase, a Gulfstream Park phase, a Charles Town phase--just to name a few. A few months ago, I had a great weekend at Woodbine and haven't been able to win anything since--to the point I just plain stopped trying.

Now I am in a Mountaineer phase. It is driven entirely on where I am winning--and my assessment of why I'm no longer winning at a track. That said, I got a rare shot at an all-sprint early Pick 5 at Santa Anita this past weekend and ended up one second-place finish from pulling it off. (It was pretty chalky, though.)

I mentioned in another thread that I primarily do sequential wagers. I have learned (the hard way) to set rules for what I play. I look for sequences, regardless of track, that cater to what I do well as a beginner. Those would be sprints on fast tracks that don't involve 2-year-olds or a field of 10 maidens who all have average speed figures of 35ish. (Though I'll consider sequences with distance races and 2-year-olds where it makes sense to buy the race, and I can actually afford it and justify it.)

A year from now, I'll probably have completely different rules. And to quote Stuart Smalley, "That's okay!"
dryrunguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-27-2020, 12:23 AM   #25
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,363
A few years back I was wasting time making some small bets at Fonner Park. It was the first time I ever played there. I saw a horse with the top Timeform figure off its last few races, back figures that made it a standout, that was obviously going to get loose on the lead, and that was switching to a barn that was great with claims and often moved horse back up to previous peaks.

What price would a horse like that be in NY or CA?

3/5?

2/5?

The horse went wire to wire and won by just under 10 lengths. It paid $8.20.

I still think that was one of the most clear cut and obvious overlays I have ever seen. I’m not sure how often things like that happen at Fonner or other smaller tracks, but they NEVER happen in NY or CA.

It’s likely that the odds are more efficient at some tracks than others.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
How do you prefer your Coffee !?
Cream and Sugar - 28.57%
30 Votes
Cream only - 20.00%
21 Votes
Black - 41.90%
44 Votes
Decaf - 9.52%
10 Votes
Espresso - 12.38%
13 Votes
Starbucks etc... - 9.52%
10 Votes
Other - 23.81%
25 Votes
Total Votes: 105
This poll is closed.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:09 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2020 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.