Bob Baffert's recent runners - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Track Phantom · 04-21-2013, 06:48 PM

The story about the Baffert runners dying of heart attacks in the NY Times came on 4-10-13.

Since 4-13-13, Baffert has started 12 runners:

1 win (GAME ON DUDE)
1 other in the money (CANDREA 2nd in the 5 horse Santa Lucia)
10 of 12 out of the money (A few at odds of 8-5, 3-5, 3-5, 4-5) including War Academy up the track in Ark Derby

Even Game on Dude's win should be considered suspect. He beat Clubhouse Ride by 1/2 length. This is the same runner he beat by 7 and 6 1/2 lengths in the previous two races.

Does anyone believe this is a trend related to the investigation? Coincidence? Will it carry over to Derby week?

Stillriledup · 04-21-2013, 07:04 PM

Shhhhh.

PaceAdvantage · 04-21-2013, 07:06 PM

Yeah....shhhhhh...access to trainer stats is so hard to come by these days...

Gallop58 · 04-21-2013, 07:18 PM

Bad math if you're actually looking for some correlation.

The investigation would have started before it was made public. Might have to go back 6 or more months to whatever date you think any heat started.
Given that he just won the SA trainers title again, I suspect your math would blow up.
Nice internet theory though.

Stillriledup · 04-21-2013, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yeah....shhhhhh...access to trainer stats is so hard to come by these days...

Maybe it is hard, Baffert had a 1-2 shot today and a 6-5 shot today...i guess all those people had no access to those trainers stats!

Stillriledup · 04-21-2013, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gallop58

Bad math if you're actually looking for some correlation.

The investigation would have started before it was made public. Might have to go back 6 or more months to whatever date you think any heat started.
Given that he just won the SA trainers title again, I suspect your math would blow up.
Nice internet theory though.

Exactly. Baffert is as hot as always, nothing to see here.

PaceAdvantage · 04-21-2013, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Maybe it is hard, Baffert had a 1-2 shot today and a 6-5 shot today...i guess all those people had no access to those trainers stats!

You can lead a horse to water...doesn't mean he's going to drink.

Glad you're filling your coffers...carry on...

Track Phantom · 04-21-2013, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gallop58

Bad math if you're actually looking for some correlation.

The investigation would have started before it was made public. Might have to go back 6 or more months to whatever date you think any heat started.
Given that he just won the SA trainers title again, I suspect your math would blow up.
Nice internet theory though.

So, in your opinion, this cold streak is coincidental?

It might very well be or maybe there is something to it.

PaceAdvantage · 04-21-2013, 07:55 PM

You must admit he raised a good point about any "investigation" being conducted would have started way before this all went public, and that Baffert would have been aware of it...thus a pretty good theory that if the cold streak is related to the horse deaths, it would have started much earlier...

Stillriledup · 04-21-2013, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You can lead a horse to water...doesn't mean he's going to drink.

Glad you're filling your coffers...carry on...

Im filling my coffers, thanks for being happy for me.

Stillriledup · 04-21-2013, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You must admit he raised a good point about any "investigation" being conducted would have started way before this all went public, and that Baffert would have been aware of it...thus a pretty good theory that if the cold streak is related to the horse deaths, it would have started much earlier...

What's the difference whether he's being investigated or not, his horses are either running holes in the wind or they're flat...when Game on Dude struggled to win, the red flag went up for me. That flag will remain up until i see fit.

Gallop58 · 04-21-2013, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valento

So, in your opinion, this cold streak is coincidental?

It might very well be or maybe there is something to it.

I guess I would want to look at analytically. What is a cold streak? What is a Baffert cold streak? Does he regularly have "cold streaks"? If he does, do they regularly occur at the end of the SA meet? Is there something about the set of runners within the suspected cold streak that might explain things?
I would look at as much of these things and then overlay a potential timeline and hunt for correlation. Even then, I'd be suspect about causation.

Wouldn't you tackle it the same way you handicap?

I guess I could make a completely uninformed guess or offer my own internet opinion but I won't. I'll stick with "any logical analysis, it seems to me, would have to account for when any actual change in practices took place, not when I or anyone else learned about them."

If that's not good enough then:

Yes I agree with you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valento

It might very well be or maybe there is something to it.

Not trying to be a jerk. Just didn't get the logic.

Track Phantom · 04-21-2013, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gallop58

Not trying to be a jerk.

Glad you clarified this because I was seriously starting to wonder.

Track Phantom · 04-21-2013, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You must admit he raised a good point about any "investigation" being conducted would have started way before this all went public, and that Baffert would have been aware of it...thus a pretty good theory that if the cold streak is related to the horse deaths, it would have started much earlier...

I think it is plausible to think Baffert felt the investigation would be conducted under the covers and would not get "out". It is possible he was blindsided by the story. Who knows.....

Not trying to connect the dots. Just thought it was interesting. Today, he had a 3-5 firster run like he was carrying a piano. I'll bet he hasn't had that happen on a 3-5 or less debut runner the entire SA meet.

nijinski · 04-21-2013, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gallop58

I guess I would want to look at analytically. What is a cold streak? What is a Baffert cold streak? Does he regularly have "cold streaks"? If he does, do they regularly occur at the end of the SA meet? Is there something about the set of runners within the suspected cold streak that might explain things?
I would look at as much of these things and then overlay a potential timeline and hunt for correlation. Even then, I'd be suspect about causation.

Wouldn't you tackle it the same way you handicap?

I guess I could make a completely uninformed guess or offer my own internet opinion but I won't. I'll stick with "any logical analysis, it seems to me, would have to account for when any actual change in practices took place, not when I or anyone else learned about them."

If that's not good enough then:

Yes I agree with you.

Not trying to be a jerk. Just didn't get the logic.

His life altering MI might have changed his personnal and professional life .