Derby Race Shape

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by racenomics

If he’s got a 50% chance of winning then he’s gotta be your bet right? I can’t imagine him going off below 2-1

I don't know if it's mate but it's definitely check.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by racenomics

If he’s got a 50% chance of winning then he’s gotta be your bet right? I can’t imagine him going off below 2-1

Nope because I don't look for runners everyone else is betting. I see a 50% chance of a large exotic pool payout to bet into. I'd say the race is a definite exacta play, but the big question to me is will Fierceness fade to a 4th place finish. Then the smaller outlay money wise becomes an even better proposition. The difference between me, and guys like you, are you're trying to pinch a few pennies off frequent wins. I don't mind losing because all I need is one hit and, I'm in the black for the rest of the year at a minimum. Once every few years I hit a really good one.

[bisket]

The horse that kills my bets is the even runner that everyone else thinks is the cats meow. Last year was the worst. In just about every race I had Forte and Angel of Empire finishing in the exacta or tri at lowest or second lowest odds on the board. I'm hoping this year will be better.

[bisket]

While we're on the subject of Forte. Let me add for every mook that thinks Forte was robbed of a derby win. I can tell you almost to a certainty where Forte would have finished last year. A neck in front of Angel of Empire for 3rd.... just like every other time they raced together.

[zico20]

Here is one man's opinion of the Derby!

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...d_analysis_123

He has four to win, eight to use underneath and eight to toss.

[classhandicapper]

I hate horses like Fierceness.

I don't know how good he is.

I have reason to believe all 3 of his wins were not quite as good as they look but his 2 losses were clearly not as bad as they look. That's a very fuzzy view of the innate ability of a horse. I way prefer it when I think I have a solid line on a horse and various upgrades and downgrades just make the entire picture clearer.

[wiretowire68]

I do not think, they will allow him to take that easy lead. Like I said, Cox has 3-4 horses and if Encino runs, he will go with him. Mid pack in this race off the front runners. Over the years of the derby because of the inexperience, obviously the exasperated excitement that takes place. I have seen so many horses get used up on the backstretch when they take that huge charge as they make that move on the far turn and then nothing left in the stretch.

When Country House was awarded the win 4 years ago, I thought War of Will would win the race even with the check. But even after the check... he still flattened right out. I think Baffert is the best trainer on the planet in terms of front running speed but he is a cheat and I understand the Kentucky ban. My horse last year was Mr. Phil and he sat with the front runners and had the lead late but that stretch is long, and to me I see Catching Freedom sitting in that mid pack and I really like Just a Touch, question is can he sit back just a bit.. Sierra Leone will be charging late the question if he can time that long run... I have made up mind..... Catching Freedom/Sierra Leone/Mystik Dan, with a couple of others all boxed.

[rastajenk]

Originally Posted by zico20

Here is one man's opinion of the Derby!https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...d_analysis_123

In his summary of trends, who does he think prepped in the Haskell?

" Four were in the Florida Derby, two in the Santa Anita Derby and one each in the Arkansas Derby and the Haskell."

[zico20]

Originally Posted by wiretowire68

I do not think, they will allow him to take that easy lead. Like I said, Cox has 3-4 horses and if Encino runs, he will go with him. Mid pack in this race off the front runners. Over the years of the derby because of the inexperience, obviously the exasperated excitement that takes place. I have seen so many horses get used up on the backstretch when they take that huge charge as they make that move on the far turn and then nothing left in the stretch.

When Country House was awarded the win 4 years ago, I thought War of Will would win the race even with the check. But even after the check... he still flattened right out. I think Baffert is the best trainer on the planet in terms of front running speed but he is a cheat and I understand the Kentucky ban. My horse last year was Mr. Phil and he sat with the front runners and had the lead late but that stretch is long, and to me I see Catching Freedom sitting in that mid pack and I really like Just a Touch, question is can he sit back just a bit.. Sierra Leone will be charging late the question if he can time that long run... I have made up mind..... Catching Freedom/Sierra Leone/Mystik Dan, with a couple of others all boxed.

Encino doesn't have nowhere near the speed to run with Fierceness early. You better find someone else!

[dballard125]

Two weeks before the highest profile horse race of the year, and this place is a ghost town. What happened? Where did everyone go?

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by dballard125

Two weeks before the highest profile horse race of the year, and this place is a ghost town. What happened? Where did everyone go?

Probably working on Golden Sixty's return in the G1 FWD Champions Mile (1600m) on 28 April. Sha Tin, be there or be square.

[five-eighths]

If Fierceness doesn’t fire who is that pace horse that can last long enough to be in the tri or super? Lots of good late runners to choose from.

Couple of years ago I liked Simplification problem was that Rich Strike horse nobody heard of.

Don’t like Track Phantom, seems more suited to run a mile horse, won’t be there at the end unless they can change tactics which seems doubtful

[groupie doll]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

In his summary of trends, who does he think prepped in the Haskell?

" Four were in the Florida Derby, two in the Santa Anita Derby and one each in the Arkansas Derby and the Haskell."

He also thought Mystic [sic] Dan won the Arkansas Derby in the slop...
(it's corrected now)

[bisket]

As far as Encino as a rabbit is concerned, I don’t see Cox using a Godolphin runner as a rabbit. You never want to piss off deep pockets. lol So far two I’m considering for the exacta and maybe the tri is Encino and Stronghold. We’re a long way from race day, but that’s where I’m at right now. I’m sure by race day I’ll be deciding from anywhere from 5 to 10 possibilities. I’m crossing my fingers Encino gets Ortiz

[bisket]

Another one I like is Just Steel.