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Old 08-20-2018, 01:02 AM   #16
thaskalos
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
So, you turned $150 into $15,000 in a week, and you're asking us for advice?....
INSIDE of a week.
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Old 08-21-2018, 03:14 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by The Artful Dodger View Post
Yes. I started with a $150 bankroll and kept my risk at 2%, so my initial bets were 50. It grew fast. Inside of a week I was at $50.
Hey I did something like that except I turned 150 k into $150.00
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Old 08-21-2018, 03:17 PM   #18
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Hey I did something like that except I turned 150 k into $150.00
You did better than me.
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Old 08-21-2018, 06:44 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by The Artful Dodger View Post
Does anyone know of a rule-of-thumb for determining how to best size a trifecta bet based on pool size? Any books or articles discussing this subject? I would like to bet as much as a $50 trifecta (per combination) but I'm not sure how to best gauge whether $5, $10 or $20 would be more appropriate and under which circumstances (with respect to the pool size).


Has anybody already done the math?

If I can dig them up, I have some excel spreadsheets that do the math calculations. Anyone wanting them can send me their e-mail via private messaging.


To do the calculations, one will need the following:

(a) Your average $1 winning trifecta payout(b) The average trifecta pool size at the track(s) under consideration
(c) The trifecta takeout rate at the track(s) under consideration
(d) The size of your trifecta wager unit size


Somewhere at least up through 2017 I also have (b) above, and for (c) one can find the HANA track rating report which shows each track's current trifecta takeout rate, or one can just use an estimate for all tracks like 24%.



As to (2) above, IMO there is kind of a balance point that is determined with both subjective and mathematical aspects. The mathematics can tell you the optimum unit wager size that will make you the most TOTAL money, but that study/analysis neglects the risk of how real and consistent one's ROI is. In the past I have built a scenario table can help someone if they have interest in this.




...
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Old 08-22-2018, 09:50 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by railbird View Post
Hey I did something like that except I turned 150 k into $150.00
Was that with or without rebates?
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Old 08-24-2018, 12:49 AM   #21
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After reading the above posts and doing some more thinking, I've decided to flat bet the trifecta at $50 across all tracks (3-horse box = $300).


The trifecta pools vary not only by track but by day of week and race number of day. Too much work to attempt some sort of optimized Kelly solution. I don't want to turn this into a J-O-B.



I'm killing it now. So what if my risk/reward is a little higher on some tracks. I'm still making money.


Thank you for the feedback. This is a great resource.
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Old 08-30-2018, 12:33 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by AltonKelsey View Post
Simple


It would depend on what the trifecta play consisted of


Longshots, bet less


Chalky, bet more



$50 would be a lot for something paying $1000 at smaller tracks
If I land on a longshot who I think is going to be a strong win contender I take the exact opposite approach myself and will invest more on the race than I typically would. That goes for most of my win/place, exacta, and trifecta bets. I'm looking to maximize my return in those types of situations where the public doesn't like a horse nearly as much as I do.

Of course I'm not playing $50 tris, though.
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Old 08-30-2018, 12:46 PM   #23
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Hey I did something like that except I turned 150 k into $150.00
I assume you aren't the same "Railbird" who posts at EOG?
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