Handicapping, Spot Plays, Software, etc

[Vinnie]

Glad you had a great time on your trip Greg. Welcome back.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

Glad you had a great time on your trip Greg. Welcome back.

Thank ya Vinnie.

Noticed an entry @ Parx today that caught my eye:

5th GOING GOING GONE 6-1

Appears to be setting up for a nice win at a price...it always comes back to whether the connections can get it done. Off 3 crappy races, back in 9 days.
Either this trainer has this horse cleverly placed--or he's wizzin' in the wind, so to speak.

I'll take a shot here=$10 win

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Checking the Trainer Angle list for spot plays can be lucrative. The above 3 horses appear on certain spot plays-at a price.

Also...not mentioned in the above list, but mentioned on several different spot plays is 6TH ANGINETTI 9/2. Check that one out while you're at it.

In the 9th race - there are 2 horses @ 8-1 ML...then strangely, there is another: EMPRESS DEONA @ 9-1. Don't believe I've ever seen a 9-1 line - wonder what that's about? Typo, maybe?

Good luck,

-NCG

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

In the 9th race - there are 2 horses @ 8-1 ML...then strangely, there is another: EMPRESS DEONA @ 9-1. Don't believe I've ever seen a 9-1 line - wonder what that's about? Typo, maybe?


[/B]

I looked at this and said - this is crazy, of course there are 9-1 morning line horses! But then I pulled up a number of cards and, no, there are not (at least not that I could find)! 8s and 10s but no 9s. An interesting phenomenon, since a ML is based on the percentages totaling 120-130%, but "true value" lines (totaling 100%) would probably see a LOT of 9-1 horses since 9-1 equals what I'd think would be a common enough 10% estimate of a horse's chance to win a race.

[NorCalGreg]

Mickey Dobbs (#4, 5/2) is entered Turf Paradise on Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 in Race 6.

[NorCalGreg]

Fooling around with some stats here @ TUP. Basically just looking at how this basic method looks...then attempt to improve results, and soon have an automatic profitable wagering machine.

Never hurts to be optimistic:

TUP 03-16
CLASS --- SPEED --- PACE --- TOTAL

3RD 5-1-4 -- 4-1-3 -- 1-4-5 = 1-4-5
4TH 4-2-1 -- 6-5-4 -- 6-3-5 = 6-4-3
5TH 7-3-4 -- 4-1-6 -- 1/6-5 = 1-6-4
6TH 4-2-3 -- 2-8-6 -- 8-2-5 = 2-8-4
7TH 10-5-2-- 2-10-5 -- 2-6-4 = 2-10-5
8TH 2-5-7 -- 3-2-9 -- 10-6-3 = 2-3-10

3RD SMOOTH RITHMS 5/2
4TH GREY ADMIRAL 5/2
5TH PIPER ROSE 7/2
6TH LA CAPRICHOSA 7/2
7TH MICHIGAN SQUEEZE 5-1
8TH OSTINI 20-1

[NorCalGreg]

That was a great play I came up with! (if I wanted a method of ELIMINATING LOSERS )



SHOFAR (#5, 20/1), is entered at Oaklawn Park in Race 7, a 1 1/16 Mile Dirt $20,000 CLAIMING, is scheduled to run at 4:04 PM.

IN HIGH GEAR (#7, 8/1), is entered at Charles Town in Race 5, a 4 1/2 Furlong Dirt $29,700 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, is scheduled to run at 8:53 PM.

[NorCalGreg]

Lots of ways to play the Exotic Bets TIP SHEET: look at the Value Plays, Hot List...or the Comp Report.

Here I've marked the comp report "singles"...as well as five 2-horse exactas for play today. You are welcome to experiment, and find what works for you, and where.

Good Luck,

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

I was asked for a tutorial on using the Exotic Bets program...it's actually a very simple program. No tutorials are necessary, to be honest. All you need to know is right here:



Here I've clicked race 6 at GPX, and clicked on "V.T/J%" It looks like this:


See? Very easy I'll put this up on the website as well

[NorCalGreg]

Lets try our luck at Tampa:



Good luck

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

[NorCalGreg]

Trouville (#5, 12/1) is entered Oaklawn Park on Saturday, March 19th, 2022 in Race 10.
YOUR NOTES: No effort last-RTW

Gallovie (#5, 6/1) is entered Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 19th, 2022 in Race 6.

YOUR NOTES: better than looked

[NorCalGreg]

In the spring, a young man's fancy turns to RILLITO:

1ST LIGHTNING GIRL 6-1
2ND JESS TELL ME 9/2
3RD WHISPERING FLAME 3-1
4TH TIZ A SPEED BOMB 3-1
5TH MR VIEW 5/2
6TH CAPTAIN RED 12-1
7TH BALI BRAVA 5/2
8TH WILDROSES101 5-1


-any scratches: take the next in line

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Here's yet another way to play this program:

Any horse over 5-1 and is highest odds of the 3 contenders, is your exacta key. Pass anything without a horse over 5-1.
Simply key your high-odds (morning line) over the other two. A one dollar exacta key box will run $4...we had 6 qualifiers, so the outlay was $24.00.

We won two exactas...with a little more luck we could have had another 1 or 2.
But still--we spent $24 and got back appx $55--not bad. Some days you won't hit nuttin'...the next you may tear it up. It's a fun and inexpensive way to play-give it a try sometime.



Shame we missed that last race....our key horse NOT NECESSARILY paid $56.80, but we didn't get the 2nd place horse in there

I used the TRAINER/JOCKEY% handicapping mode, since that one usually sees quite a few good prices.
-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Same deal as yesterday--key the top ML with the other two.

First race already gone off...hit that for $42.00, so any others we hit is all gravy. $32 wagered $4 X 8 races.