Handicapping, Spot Plays, Software, etc

[NorCalGreg]

[Fairchild]

Hi Greg I ordered Speed Demons yesterday evening and found it ready to download early this morning, thank you.

I was anxious to try it out so I used it on the races at Tup. today. I seldom play this track, but today it fit my schedule.

I played $2.00 on every spot play that the program came up with as long as it paid $6.00 or better. I made 11 bets for a total of $22.00 and got back $29.20 for a $7.20 profit, that's pretty good.

Once I am able to accumulate some stats on what spot play works best at what track I should do really well.

I have your Platinum Program, but Speed Demons makes it a lot easier.

[green80]

[QUOTE=NorCalGreg;2777701]I'm telling you, Mike...Oaklawn is where good handicapping goes to die


I know, I know, I was just trying to find anything that might show a long term profit at OP. I'm going to try this a little longer and see if I can be in the plus column after 100 bets or more. If not, I'll go back to the "easy" tracks.

[OzYank]

G'day Mate - gotta love that Aussie Outback button on Speed Demons

2 selections today at TUP -
R3 Avalon King won and paid $19
R8 Outlaw Daisy came 3rd

As for Speed Demons itself am starting to see some trends on results across multiple tracks and the Easy Money button hits about 35% of the time and is very good at GPX (36%),TAM (43%), SAX (41%) and PRX (35%) to name a few. Best 2 Speeds and Speed Purse are about the same average across multiple tracks at 34%.

I want to also add that I started looking at PEN and in the last couple weeks the top 2 speed demon numbers hit about 55% and has a great hit rate for the other spot plays so basically just taking a closer look to place a pick 4 there for about $18 or $27 bet I have hit 3 of the last 4 that I bet on. One of those only paid $41 but the other 2 paid $206 and $192 - the lost bet was the early pick 4 so I am no longer going to try that one. But so far its been topping up my bankroll to have a good play at some other tracks. The run will come to an end as all good things do but thought you may want to check it out.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Fairchild

Once I am able to accumulate some stats on what spot play works best at what track I should do really well.

I like your approach, Fairchild...do your research (as OzYank and Green80 have done), and good results will follow. This is from the last 20 race days @ TUP (including today's 1 play-ran 2nd)--using the "WINNING HABIT" spot play:



I've taken all-comers regardless of ML...a 7/2 ML min would have cut the # of plays, but the ROI would, of course.. increase substantially. That holds true for most of the plays. The ROI @ GPX using "EASY MONEY" the past month-- with a ML min, is sick.

One other thing...you mentioned you also have the PLATINUM program. I fire that one up every day, and use the "TURF BLAST" rating to find contenders on the grass, and the "SPEED BLAST" works great at fast tracks like TUP. It had Simon's big $19.00 winner today, also.

Best,

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Just for kicks--I play a couple Super High Fives daily, on a $1 cold-punch ticket. It beats playing the lottery. I'll let you know if I ever win one.

Anyhoo...I see a wager in the 6th at Parx called:

Wagering Menu Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Philly BIG 5

It isn't listed at XB or TS as a wager on their bet pads. Anyone know what happened to the "Philly Big 5"?

[NorCalGreg]

The Parx Trainer Angle spot play didn't look like much today--but what it lacked in quantity--more than made up with this:

[NorCalGreg]

LOL...the last time I looked at this track, it was called KEYSTONE.

After Ozyank's report yesterday--naturally became very interested in Pen. He mentioned Speed Demon's DEMON POWER was particularly effective there. Here's today's results:

PENN TOP-2 DEMON POWER 01-04

1ST RISEN SAVIOR XX / NIMITZ CLASS $5.60

2ND PICTOR $3.60 / DROSSELMOON XX

3RD TUXEDO LEMON 3RD / RAISETONEW HEIGHTS $7.20

4TH SLEEPY N JOYFUL $3.00 / LOLA GIRL 2ND EX $22.00

5TH DON'T LOSEMYMONEY $5.00 / TRENDING UP 2ND EX $6.40

6TH BROAD STREET BULLY $28.60 / ZERTZ 3RD

7TH CUCKOO FORCOCONUTS $3.20 / BECCA'S WISH 3RD

8TH WICKED SOLUTION 3RD / MONACO PRINCESS XX

5 OF 8 winners on top--I wouldn't expect a lot of $28.00 payoffs, though...like the 6th race winner paid.

If you would like to see tomorrow's DEMON picks, I'll post after the races. If you would like them sooner, see...www.pace-view.net for a quick download of Speed Demons. No tax or shipping charges. Thanks

-NCG

[Fairchild]

Hi Greg Thanks again for the Speed Demons program. I played two tracks today, Tup and Ded. At the two tracks I had 12 spot plays, 3 I didn't wager on because of odds so I made 9 $2.00 wagers.

I hit on 4 of 9 races $8.00 $7.60 $16.60 and $18.80

Wagered $18.00 and received $51.00 in return $51.00 - $18.00 = $33.00

All I have done is keep track of the last few days worth of spot plays at each track to see what was winning with a profit and then bet accordingly, almost too easy!

[green80]

Originally Posted by Fairchild

Hi Greg Thanks again for the Speed Demons program. I played two tracks today, Tup and Ded. At the two tracks I had 12 spot plays, 3 I didn't wager on because of odds so I made 9 $2.00 wagers.

I hit on 4 of 9 races $8.00 $7.60 $16.60 and $18.80

Wagered $18.00 and received $51.00 in return $51.00 - $18.00 = $33.00

All I have done is keep track of the last few days worth of spot plays at each track to see what was winning with a profit and then bet accordingly, almost too easy!

Which spot play are you playing?

[Fairchild]

Hi green80

I used the data files for several days for those two tracks. I then built a data base consisting of all Spot Plays, the wins and losses for each type of Spot Play and the payoffs of each win.
For Trainer I recorded only the races where the horses showed a ML of 4/1, for the rest I used 2/1 ML . This gave me my win percentage and my profit or loss for each type of Spot Play that I might have bet on if I were betting.(using a $2.00 wager). I then did the same thing using best DPWR if it was also best TMPACE , also 2/1 ML.

The Spot Plays that showed a decent W% and a profit I bet $2.00 on yesterday. I wagered each play as long as the odds were2/1 or better at post time. At Tup I used Trainer and Speed Purse and at Ded I used Trainer, Easy Money, Best 2 Speeds, Speed Purse and Dpw/Tmpace.

I hope this makes sense when you read it.

[NorCalGreg]

Good work, Bob. I spent a good 3 hours researching horses in Speed Demons that were on both EASY MONEY & BEST 2 SPEEDS.

Not a large survey...I went back a few weeks and recorded the results from the tracks I still have. Mostly short prices-but did turn on profit with 66% winners.

I realize this isn't much data-but with what I did have-I lost 2 in a row just once. I'm thinking of trying a "martingale" style betting system. Very probably will blow up in my face-but I'll give it a shot anyway. I did a review on a book about betting systems and methods--there was one called "Modified D'Alembert" that looks like it may fit the bill here.

I'll post 'em for awhile-either until I get so far behind I'll never get even...or it's wildly profitable and I can retire a wealthy man.

You make the call

[horseplayer]

Many yrs ago when Russ Harris was handicapping for Daily News - one of those monthly or perhaps weekly newstand turf publications had an article entitled "The Genius of Russ Harris" and illustrated a progression bet on his picks - I wish I had saved it.

[lefty359]

Greg,, what did you conclude in your review of the modified D'alembert betting method?

[NorCalGreg]

Sounds interesting...googled it but didn't find anything.

This is Osterman's "Modified D'Alembert"...which was modified from the original D'Alembert method, which was a modified version of the Martingale: