Brexit - British Union Leave or Stay

[ebcorde]

Originally Posted by Valuist

They were once #1, and were the biggest creditor nation in the world, and the Pound Sterling was the world's reserve currency. Fast forward to post WWII. The once biggest creditor in the world, they now were the biggest debtor, and the Pound was replaced by the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Fast forward 70 years or so, the U.S., who had been the biggest creditor nation in the world is now the biggest debtor.

The U.S. dollar, strong in the very short term compared to the ultra fragile Euro, will be replaced as the world's currency. And when that happens, the $hit will hit the fan.

How much of that debt is war? World war II, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq I,II,III, Afghanistan, Cold war, 1,000 military bases, 600 billion Military budget, and CIA/NSA budgets of 50-80 billion a year.

How much will the UK spend on defense? I say half of what they pay now, they have a EU as a buffer and the the channel. And who Knows maybe the Germans finally take off the shackles and get back into the War game to protect themselves. That would be funny.

A for the future of the EU , Turkey will have a hard time. Muslims don't like Women to work. I expect the unexpected like maybe the Russians joining .
Of course not now, but in 10-20 years... I could see an EU from the English Channel to the Bering straits.


The Syrian problem made it worse. too bad. kinda funny that Arab refugees took down the EU.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Valuist

The markets bought the media crap in the past couple days that "remain" would win. And the media got it wrong.

My gambling comment was because of the huge upside move on Thursday. I was looking at it as a 50/50 (stay or leave) proposition except the referendum was to determine if they should leave which I felt gave leaving the edge otherwise what initiated the need for a vote. The huge upside move was just gambling which means these sophisticated money managers were just gambling and btw, they still received their commissions.

I felt the 50/50 leaned towards one should do nothing to their portfolio which is the reason I asked if someone did do something why did they do it.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by ebcorde

How much of that debt is war? World war II, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq I,II,III, Afghanistan, Cold war, 1,000 military bases, 600 billion Military budget, and CIA/NSA budgets of 50-80 billion a year.

How much will the UK spend on defense? I say half of what they pay now, they have a EU as a buffer and the the channel. And who Knows maybe the Germans finally take off the shackles and get back into the War game to protect themselves. That would be funny.

A for the future of the EU , Turkey will have a hard time. Muslims don't like Women to work. I expect the unexpected like maybe the Russians joining .
Of course not now, but in 10-20 years... I could see an EU from the English Channel to the Bering straits.


The Syrian problem made it worse. too bad. kinda funny that Arab refugees took down the EU.

We know the debt was $9 trillion when Obama took office. It's at $19.2 trillion right now.

As for 20 years from now, there won't be an EU. Sweden and France will be next....nobody wants to hang around on a sinking ship.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Valuist

We know the debt was $9 trillion when Obama took office. It's at $19.2 trillion right now.

As for 20 years from now, there won't be an EU. Sweden and France will be next....nobody wants to hang around on a sinking ship.

Just for talk purposes Valuist as I agree w/you... but a couple of my thoughts:

The EU will be long gone within a few years, not 20 nor even 10. I know there will be a time lag to wind all this down but it was inevitable a few years back that the EU was a goner for sure.

You mention Sweden and France... what about the PIGS countries: Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain? They all want to high tail out of the EU as well!!

Think about this... you have the financial supporters and the givers into the EU pool --the UK, Sweden and France, looking to leave, and you have the financial benefactors and the takers wanting to leave, the PIGS, as well.

Most of EU members are also fed up with the vulgar, ugly, corrupt Belguim politicians making policy, and they are also scared of becoming totally beholden to the creeps in Germany being the sole financial and manufacturing engine of The Continent.

The debt clock isn't the only thing ticking... the dissolution of the EU is clicking too.

[Capper Al]

It's the same old pattern- the rich take more than their fair share, the masses get angry, the frustration will either lead to a positive change or revolution or war.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by reckless

Just for talk purposes Valuist as I agree w/you... but a couple of my thoughts:

The EU will be long gone within a few years, not 20 nor even 10. I know there will be a time lag to wind all this down but it was inevitable a few years back that the EU was a goner for sure.

You mention Sweden and France... what about the PIGS countries: Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain? They all want to high tail out of the EU as well!!

Think about this... you have the financial supporters and the givers into the EU pool --the UK, Sweden and France, looking to leave, and you have the financial benefactors and the takers wanting to leave, the PIGS, as well.

Most of EU members are also fed up with the vulgar, ugly, corrupt Belguim politicians making policy, and they are also scared of becoming totally beholden to the creeps in Germany being the sole financial and manufacturing engine of The Continent.

The debt clock isn't the only thing ticking... the dissolution of the EU is clicking too.

Agree on all counts. It certainly won't take 20 years for the EU to be finished.

[Pensacola Pete]

You're assuming that the U.K. will actually leave EU. That hasn't happened, and I doubt that it will. The referendum isn't legally binding; it's technically an advisory by the people. Parliament can exercise its sovereignty and vote to not leave EU. That is likely to be what happens. If the referendum were along the lines of 65% leave 35% stay, it would probably be a different matter, but with the vote that close, the House of Commons could, if it wanted, choose to ignore Brexit and vote to stay. Another possibility would be to draw up a different referendum and have it voted on.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Let's see, when I posted this, the futures were at 2105...they went as high as 2119 before the crash, so that's a pretty big stop (14 points)....BUT...

If you had shorted just one contract after I posted the above, you could have easily cleared $4k or more before the sun came up...lol

And just like that, the entire Brexit market fall has been eradicated in three and a half trading days.

Like I said...a mere drop in the bucket that drop was...meant basically nothing. It was as much an overreaction as was the rise leading into the Brexit vote.

Brexit was an excuse for traders to make money...means nothing to the market in the long run.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete

You're assuming that the U.K. will actually leave EU. That hasn't happened, and I doubt that it will. The referendum isn't legally binding; it's technically an advisory by the people. Parliament can exercise its sovereignty and vote to not leave EU. That is likely to be what happens. If the referendum were along the lines of 65% leave 35% stay, it would probably be a different matter, but with the vote that close, the House of Commons could, if it wanted, choose to ignore Brexit and vote to stay. Another possibility would be to draw up a different referendum and have it voted on.

Highly unlikely they won't leave. If your scenario was imminent, it's likely Cameron wouldn't have resigned.

[barn32]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Brexit was an excuse for traders to make money...means nothing to the market in the long run.

The bond and gold/silver markets would disagree with you.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by barn32

The bond and gold/silver markets would disagree with you.

Gold and silver were in a strong uptrend that started months before Brexit.

After yet another terrorist attack in France, a country overwhelmed by immigration in recent years, I think the Brits clearly made the right decision.