https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kcmwXUdDCE
The leaves aren't brown, and the sky won't be gray, but we will be California Dreaming today.
A simple $150K Stakes race that has the quality of a Grade 2 race with the entries lined up to be running in this one.
The real question for most in this one is the 8.5 furlongs and the surface. Many a horse stretching out in here with turf not being their specialty.
Magic Mark: Turf? Out of 15 lifetime starts this gelding has only ran on the grass a single time. And finished 7th and 22 lengths back in that one. Likely the worst performance of his career. Not only that, but distance is a huge question mark. Have to pass.
Ambitious Brew: Yes, he is good on grass, but as a sprinter and upwards to a mile. How will he handle 8.5 Furlongs? Connections also tried him on dirt last out and was spanked in a G1 by Lord Nelson at 7F while fading. 4/1 ML sees a bit aggressive as I don't see a race in him that can win this one.
Boozer: The return of Gary Stevens in the irons is interesting. He also has a nice record at Del Mar with 2 wins and 3 of 4 hitting the board. Distance is the question mark here though as he does his best work on or near the lead.
Somethings Unusual: He is a straight up turf sprint closer. And against decent competition he has never been able to raise his game. Tough to see an in the money finish out of this one.
Alert Bay: He won the G3 San Francisco 2 back at a mile on the turf and has 12 wins in 27 career races. Always bet, and almost always game, this looks to be the one to beat. He is also 2 for 3 at the distance and can get 8.5 furlongs unlike nearly all of his foes in here today. A classic stalker that should be sitting a bit further back today. Can he deal with that?
Patriots Rule: Extremely difficult to look past the near year away from racing for this guy. And that is after 3 really poor efforts prior to his extended layoff. His Del Mar record is garbage, and Talamo hasn't won anything of note in quite a while. Really tough to make a case for this one.
Poshsky: Likely coming off of a career best effort in the
Crystal Water Stakes in which he edged out
Alert Bay at the wire. He definitely fits with these, and can run big in back to back races. He could also sit a nice trip in here with a number of front end horses and speed taking to the front where he may well be able to run uncontested for a good portion of the early running. He is an all or nothing type horse, so tread lightly in exotics wagering.
Soi Phet: Turf? Coming into this one he is in near career best form.., but that is on dirt. Kent Desormeaux has been in the irons over his last 4 races in which he has hit the exacta every time. And in stakes company. His turf record, however, is a bit concerning being 1 for 11 and another 2 Shows. ML of 9/2 isn't where I'd be laying my money.
Avanti Bello: Turf? Of his 14 career races, only 2 have been ran on turf, and zero wins, much less board finishes, have come about in those 2 tries. Distance shouldn't be a problem, but he has to be near the lead to be a factor in a race full of horses stretching out. Really tough horse to pass on with Bejarano and O'Neill, but there are better options in here.
SUMMARY: Pretty crazy race all things considered, and really tough to land on a winner. Should be a quick pace, even on the turf, and at an extended distance for a number of these in here.
W: Boozer
