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Old 05-08-2019, 05:25 PM   #61
Light
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One flaw I see in Pizzolla's method is to rigidly use the last race to decide which horse is the fulcrum. The flaw was exemplified with the 77 E2 for MS and a 114 E2 for Vekoma. Come on, you know something is wrong with those figs. Especially when you see that MS ran a 100 E2 in a mud sprint 3 back and the 114 for Vekoma he never did before.

Another flaw is if you are hung up in the discrepancy between MS and Vekoma look at their total pace E2+LP in their last race. According to Bris:

Vekoma: 114 E2 + 84LP =198 Total Pace

MS 77 E2 +123LP =200 Total pace

So its a matter of distribution of energy, not that MS is slower than Vekoma early.

Also using the Bris Quirin style designations in Bris, MS and Spinoff are tops with EP7. But MS has 3 calls at the E2 point where he is 1st. Spinoff has one. No contest who gets the lead using Quirin style. Many times the horse with the slower E2 but faster Quirrin style indicator, will get the lead. Vekoma had an EP5.
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Old 05-08-2019, 07:17 PM   #62
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I think there is a major difference between running style and pace. One tells you how the horse typically likes to run and the other tells you how fast he has run in the past.

IMO, you start with style and then see if he's fast enough to achieve it.

But you absolutely have to look past races where the horse made the lead in a slow pace. No horse (other than an unrateable lunatic) is going to go at their maximum speed once it has made the lead just so handicappers can figure out who the fulcrum horse is.

You have to look back to see how fast the horse is when actually asked. And by this I don't mean his pace relative to his final time. I mean how fast is he. MS has sprint speed. Even if some of the those sprint paces were kind of slow they were still fast enough to run with any of these other horses at 10F.

The next step would be to estimate if he could run with these other horses at the likely pace and still get 10F. IMO, that was the question mark.

It was easy to see he was a front runner that was fast enough to be on the likely pace.
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Old 05-08-2019, 09:11 PM   #63
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I think there is a major difference between running style and pace. One tells you how the horse typically likes to run and the other tells you how fast he has run in the past.
Mike told me once that running style tells you where the horse wants to be, velocity tells you where he can be.
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Old 05-08-2019, 09:14 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by Light View Post
One flaw I see in Pizzolla's method is to rigidly use the last race to decide which horse is the fulcrum. The flaw was exemplified with the 77 E2 for MS and a 114 E2 for Vekoma. Come on, you know something is wrong with those figs. Especially when you see that MS ran a 100 E2 in a mud sprint 3 back and the 114 for Vekoma he never did before.

Another flaw is if you are hung up in the discrepancy between MS and Vekoma look at their total pace E2+LP in their last race. According to Bris:

Vekoma: 114 E2 + 84LP =198 Total Pace

MS 77 E2 +123LP =200 Total pace
Excellent points!
I must confess, I also said American Pharoah was far too slow early to win.
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Old 05-09-2019, 02:05 PM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Light View Post
One flaw I see in Pizzolla's method is to rigidly use the last race to decide which horse is the fulcrum. The flaw was exemplified with the 77 E2 for MS and a 114 E2 for Vekoma. Come on, you know something is wrong with those figs. Especially when you see that MS ran a 100 E2 in a mud sprint 3 back and the 114 for Vekoma he never did before.

Another flaw is if you are hung up in the discrepancy between MS and Vekoma look at their total pace E2+LP in their last race. According to Bris:

Vekoma: 114 E2 + 84LP =198 Total Pace

MS 77 E2 +123LP =200 Total pace

So its a matter of distribution of energy, not that MS is slower than Vekoma early.

Also using the Bris Quirin style designations in Bris, MS and Spinoff are tops with EP7. But MS has 3 calls at the E2 point where he is 1st. Spinoff has one. No contest who gets the lead using Quirin style. Many times the horse with the slower E2 but faster Quirrin style indicator, will get the lead. Vekoma had an EP5.
Could one tweak the method and use another prior race to find this fulcrum horse?
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Old 05-09-2019, 02:06 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by Light View Post
One flaw I see in Pizzolla's method is to rigidly use the last race to decide which horse is the fulcrum. The flaw was exemplified with the 77 E2 for MS and a 114 E2 for Vekoma. Come on, you know something is wrong with those figs. Especially when you see that MS ran a 100 E2 in a mud sprint 3 back and the 114 for Vekoma he never did before.

Another flaw is if you are hung up in the discrepancy between MS and Vekoma look at their total pace E2+LP in their last race. According to Bris:

Vekoma: 114 E2 + 84LP =198 Total Pace

MS 77 E2 +123LP =200 Total pace

So its a matter of distribution of energy, not that MS is slower than Vekoma early.

Also using the Bris Quirin style designations in Bris, MS and Spinoff are tops with EP7. But MS has 3 calls at the E2 point where he is 1st. Spinoff has one. No contest who gets the lead using Quirin style. Many times the horse with the slower E2 but faster Quirrin style indicator, will get the lead. Vekoma had an EP5.
Could one tweak the method and use another prior race to find this fulcrum horse? Why does it have to be last out race?
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Old 05-09-2019, 02:50 PM   #67
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I could be wrong but I dont believe the Fulcrum race is necessarily the last race although I read his book many years ago
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Old 05-09-2019, 02:52 PM   #68
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The three questions.

Who are the E horses?

Who has the best (fastest) figures?

Are there any of the other E horses that have not had to run that fast?
This really applies to younger horses.

The figures indicated that Vekoma would be on the pace, MS figured to be there because he did not have to run figures like Vekoma to get the lead. Then it became deciding what effect the higher early pace would do to MS. When he ran the second two furlongs in about 24 seconds, the race was over.
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Old 05-10-2019, 12:48 PM   #69
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Wisdom

Thank You for that
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Old 05-10-2019, 12:49 PM   #70
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Mike told me once that running style tells you where the horse wants to be, velocity tells you where he can be.
I mean this one.
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Old 05-10-2019, 02:19 PM   #71
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IMO, everyone is making this too complicated.

1. Horses develop running styles
2. Horses have varying amounts of natural speed
3. Horses tend to only run fast enough early to secure their preferred position.
4. Connections adjust strategy to the circumstances
5. Random things like the break matter

a. Classify the horse's running style (most important)
b. Look for the fastest fractions the horse has run in recent races

At that point you should know who wants the lead and who has enough speed to get it if they try.

However, #3 is telling you that if a horse very consistently goes for the lead, he may be even faster than he has shown in his fractions in his last or even last few races. So you have to look for clues in how consistently he gets the lead, does he open up big clear leads, does he seem to get the lead without even being asked for his best, has he ever outrun other known really fast horses etc..

Over and above that, owners, trainers, and jockeys are not all dumb. They don't give a crap about fulcrum and past fractions. They are trying to win races or at least not commit suicide and cost themselves positions. So if some horses are more versatile they are going to avoid disastrous paces or take advantage when they can.

It's hard to get projections correct, but imo it was pretty obvious that MS was a fast front runner and Vekoma might take back a bit despite recently running fast fractions.
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Old 05-10-2019, 03:32 PM   #72
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The way the fulcrum was presented in the HM book.....its not really about predicting the actual pace of the race,its more of a conservative/common sense type of tool used to make eliminations or to give possible excuses for bad races-in that context i think it can be useful.
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Old 05-10-2019, 04:43 PM   #73
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The way the fulcrum was presented in the HM book.....its not really about predicting the actual pace of the race,its more of a conservative/common sense type of tool used to make eliminations or to give possible excuses for bad races-in that context i think it can be useful.
Bingo!
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Old 05-10-2019, 08:17 PM   #74
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Over and above that, owners, trainers, and jockeys are not all dumb. They don't give a crap about fulcrum and past fractions. They are trying to win races or at least not commit suicide and cost themselves positions. So if some horses are more versatile they are going to avoid disastrous paces or take advantage when they can.
Did you notice the geniuses that came up with the plan to rate Motion Emotion in the Oaks? It was actually quoted, they really said it.

You have to worry about the dumb ones as much as you have to realize the smarts ones might mess up your plans too!
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Old 05-10-2019, 10:31 PM   #75
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Did you notice the geniuses that came up with the plan to rate Motion Emotion in the Oaks? It was actually quoted, they really said it.

You have to worry about the dumb ones as much as you have to realize the smarts ones might mess up your plans too!
I was hoping they were bluffing, the horse had the fastest quarter (my opinion) and the way the track was playing I thought the horse had a chance at the odds on the lead, couldn't have been more wrong. Not sure if Motion Emotion would have won (or have gotten the lead if sent) but in hindsight was probably still the horses best chance.
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