Percentage of time each betting choice finishes in each position

[classhandicapper]

Does anyone have the ability to rank horses in the betting (1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice, 4th choice, and 5th choice) and then tell me how often the 1st choice finishes exactly 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th and then do the same for 2nd choice, 3rd choice through 5th choice.

I realize it all depends on odds, but I am just trying to get very rough estimates on average.

I have the data, but I always have issues with ranking queries in Access.

[sjk]

1.00 0.38 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.07
2.00 0.21 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.10
3.00 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.13
4.00 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.16
5.00 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.18

Odds rank left to right. Finish position top to bottom

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by sjk

1.00 0.38 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.07
2.00 0.21 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.10
3.00 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.13
4.00 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.16
5.00 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.18

Odds rank left to right. Finish position top to bottom

Awesome.

Mine match exactly.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by sjk

1.00 0.38 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.07
2.00 0.21 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.10
3.00 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.13
4.00 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.16
5.00 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.18

Odds rank left to right. Finish position top to bottom

Thanks's a LOT!

[classhandicapper]

Would I be way overstepping your good will to ask for the 6th, 7th and 8th choice in the betting finishing 1st through 5th?

Feel free to tell me to get lost.

[LemonSoupKid]

Just so I'm clear, explain the top row. Is that the top finishing from 1st to 6th place? He finishes 6th, 7% of the time?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

Just so I'm clear, explain the top row. Is that the top finishing from 1st to 6th place? He finishes 6th, 7% of the time?

The 1st betting choice finishes 5th 7% of the time.

[traveler]

Isn't this going to need to be looked at by number of entries in a race?

[sjk]

1.00 0.38 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.07
2.00 0.21 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.10
3.00 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.13
4.00 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.16
5.00 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.18
6.00 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.14
7.00 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.09
8.00 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05
9.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03
Average field size is 7.9

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by sjk

1.00 0.38 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.07
2.00 0.21 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.10
3.00 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.13
4.00 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.16
5.00 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.18
6.00 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.14
7.00 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.09
8.00 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05
9.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03
Average field size is 7.9

You have given me a lot of help over the years. I can't say thank you enough. You probably told me where you live at some point, but I don't recall. If you are ever at Belmont, let me know. Lunch, beer, or both on me. Your preference.

[judehaz]

All,

This is excellent and very interesting data. Forgive me if I'm missing something, but what exactly is the data set (track(s)/time frame) here?

Thank you!

[sjk]

I used pretty much all races since 1/1/08. A few few oddball tracks and distances excluded.

I took out all races where two or more horses had the same odds mainly to exclude entries.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by sjk

1.00 0.38 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.07
2.00 0.21 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.10
3.00 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.13
4.00 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.16
5.00 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.18

Odds rank left to right. Finish position top to bottom

I’m looking at just the WIN frequency of the 1st through 5th betting choices from your chart.
(Correct me if I’m wrong)

1st choice – Wins 38% of the time
2nd choice – Wins 21% of the time – (1st & 2nd choice Win 59% of the time)
3rd choice – Wins 14% of the time – (1st, 2nd & 3rd choice Win 73% of the time)
4th choice – Wins 10% of the time – (1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th choice Win 83% of the time)
5th choice – Wins 7% of the time - (1st, 2nd, 3rd , 4th & 5th choice Win 90% of the time)

On the surface this may seem to have some sort of very general statistical value.
Unfortunately, it’s a conglomeration of results without discrimination between race class, race distance, horse’s age & sex, track conditions, and most importantly a distinction between the race tracks themselves. Even without consideration for the race conditions these type O.A. of statistics vary widely when comparing tracks like SA or BEL versus GP or OP, or versus LS or EVD.

Now don’t get me wrong! This type of statistical profile can be VERY revealing and useful (perhaps even rewarding) when this same information is based on a complete itemization of each race that includes ALL pertinent race conditions and the track itself.

For example,
Belmont Park – MSW 3yr old &^ – 1m on the dirt –
1st choice – Wins 35% of the time
2nd choice – Wins 22% of the time – (1st & 2nd choice Win 57% of the time)
3rd choice – Wins 17% of the time – (1st, 2nd & 3rd choice Win 74% of the time)
4th choice – Wins 7% of the time – (1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th choice Win 81% of the time)
5th choice – Wins 4% of the time - (1st, 2nd, 3rd , 4th & 5th choice Win 85% of the time)

Belmont Park – MCL 3yr old &^ – 1&1/16m on the turf –
1st choice – Wins 28% of the time
2nd choice – Wins 18% of the time – (1st & 2nd choice Win 46% of the time)
3rd choice – Wins 15% of the time – (1st, 2nd & 3rd choice Win 61% of the time)
4th choice – Wins 9% of the time – (1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th choice Win 70% of the time)
5th choice – Wins 5% of the time - (1st, 2nd, 3rd , 4th & 5th choice Win 75% of the time)

Belmont Park – CLM 35K to 50K 3yr old &^ – 6f on the dirt –
1st choice – Wins 33% of the time
2nd choice – Wins 25% of the time – (1st & 2nd choice Win 58% of the time)
3rd choice – Wins 19% of the time – (1st, 2nd & 3rd choice Win 77% of the time)
4th choice – Wins 8% of the time – (1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th choice Win 85% of the time)
5th choice – Wins 6% of the time - (1st, 2nd, 3rd , 4th & 5th choice Win 91% of the time)

Evangeline Downs – CLM 5K to 10K 3yr old &^ – 6f on the dirt –
1st choice – Wins 31% of the time
2nd choice – Wins 22% of the time – (1st & 2nd choice Win 53% of the time)
3rd choice – Wins 15% of the time – (1st, 2nd & 3rd choice Win 68% of the time)
4th choice – Wins 10% of the time – (1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th choice Win 78% of the time)
5th choice – Wins 5% of the time - (1st, 2nd, 3rd , 4th & 5th choice Win 83% of the time)

Of course this involves more work. However, when the race results are clearly broken down these type of statistical profiles when compared from one type of race to another at even the same race track can become real eye openers.
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