|
|
10-12-2017, 01:47 PM
|
#241
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
|
The 's lack of tactical speed continued, and she had several openings but could not take advantage of them. My initial suspicions on her form were correct, even though I hadn't eliminated her. Baronet hit for $25.40-10.60-4.80.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-12-2017 at 01:55 PM.
|
|
|
10-12-2017, 05:18 PM
|
#242
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Fort Worth,Texas
Posts: 606
|
It came in 5,6,7,8 Again speed fig being wrong or in error had nothing to do with the winner. All 4 horse had shown enough speed to win this race. My analysis(and Andy's)over estimated the negative effect on the class jump from clm10k to clm35k and under estimated the positive effect of the 8 lb drop in weight. I used to be strictly a speed handicapper,but now I have changed. Now I look to see if a horse has shown in the past 4 races that he has enough speed to win this race at this distance and start my handicapping from there. These 4 horses had shown speed fig faster than the race par of 82. I will continue to degrade a horse like the 5 for making that jump in class. In long run I think that is right.
|
|
|
10-13-2017, 11:29 AM
|
#243
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperson
It came in 5,6,7,8 Again speed fig being wrong or in error had nothing to do with the winner. All 4 horse had shown enough speed to win this race. My analysis(and Andy's)over estimated the negative effect on the class jump from clm10k to clm35k and under estimated the positive effect of the 8 lb drop in weight. I used to be strictly a speed handicapper,but now I have changed. Now I look to see if a horse has shown in the past 4 races that he has enough speed to win this race at this distance and start my handicapping from there. These 4 horses had shown speed fig faster than the race par of 82. I will continue to degrade a horse like the 5 for making that jump in class. In long run I think that is right.
|
I agree with your analysis of this race, the one thing i might point out is that under claiming conditions, after recording a speed figure that qualifies for winning, the class rise should be looked at as a positive. If the horse just runs a good race with the same or slightly lower speed figure at the higher class then it can be viewed as a negative in its next start. If the class move is to a non-claiming race, then it should be viewed as a negative unless the speed figure earned is the highest in the field by more than 6 points.
|
|
|
10-13-2017, 03:45 PM
|
#244
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Fort Worth,Texas
Posts: 606
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
I agree with your analysis of this race, the one thing i might point out is that under claiming conditions, after recording a speed figure that qualifies for winning, the class rise should be looked at as a positive. If the horse just runs a good race with the same or slightly lower speed figure at the higher class then it can be viewed as a negative in its next start. If the class move is to a non-claiming race, then it should be viewed as a negative unless the speed figure earned is the highest in the field by more than 6 points.
|
His speed fig in his last race was a 66 in the slop so it didn't indicate a improved form. It was the 2nd race back that he ran the 84.
|
|
|
10-16-2017, 06:36 PM
|
#245
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 466
|
Classic example of Handicapping
Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperson
His speed fig in his last race was a 66 in the slop so it didn't indicate a improved form. It was the 2nd race back that the horse ran the 84.
|
Last race could of been a excuse to move beyond his last line to use the 2nd line for showing improving form.
Just asking
|
|
|
04-09-2018, 06:04 PM
|
#246
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3
|
Handicapping merthods
I have had very good success with regression analysis. I suggest you Google it and see what you think.
|
|
|
04-09-2018, 07:40 PM
|
#247
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
|
I can't spell it.
|
|
|
04-09-2018, 08:17 PM
|
#248
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
|
G-o-o-g-l-e
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
04-09-2018, 08:37 PM
|
#249
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: pa.
Posts: 477
|
spell
I-T
|
|
|
04-09-2018, 08:43 PM
|
#250
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
|
Thanks guys, I got it.
|
|
|
04-09-2018, 09:33 PM
|
#251
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3
|
Regression Analysis Handicapping
Google thoroughbred regression analysis. Regression analysis is statistical modeling used in many industries. I won't go into the math detail but it determines how the horse should perform today against the other horses entered in that race. Past performances are valuable but not the foundation of the model. The model simply identifies which horses should run competitively based on the sum of all varaibles within the population of horses entered in that race. It is not a model of a single horses but a model on all the horses.
|
|
|
04-09-2018, 10:08 PM
|
#252
|
PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,632
|
Weren't you the guy whose first ever post I deleted because it was a pitch to come to your site and buy what you're selling?
Yeah, I think it was...
Regression analysis and horse racing has been around since the beginning of time...
|
|
|
04-08-2019, 08:03 PM
|
#253
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
|
Regression analysis is used to predict how the change in one variable will change the value of another variable. In other words it's used to predict 1st year collge GPA based on the students SAT score.
In horse racing, for example, it could be used to predict a horse's time or speed figure (dependent variable) based on any other variable (independent variable). As can be imagined, any number of other dependent variables can be used such as previous speed figure(s), average class, etc. Any statistical software can do it. The trick is knowing what variable to use. It can also be used to calculate what percentage of the dependent variable (speed figure) is due to the effect of the independent variable. Since no one variable (handicapping factor) is wholey responsible for another dependent variable, there is also multiple regression analysis which shows what combination of independent variables can predict the dependent variable. Again the trick is to find what these variables are and how to weight them.
|
|
|
05-14-2019, 06:50 PM
|
#254
|
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: totonto
Posts: 618
|
The advantage is to the person who can find a way to count the number of strides a horse takes in each race run and then considers the way the horse ran same...🤓😎
|
|
|
05-14-2019, 06:52 PM
|
#255
|
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: totonto
Posts: 618
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by bpiets
The advantage is to the person who can find a way to count the number of strides a horse takes in each race run and then considers the way the horse ran same...🤓😎
|
Then compares each horse in the race being run...ave. pace / stride etc...and conditioning for that particular race entered...lots of home work....
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|