DERBY ANALYTICS---IMPLODE !!!!!

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Keep in mind, it doesn't even matter if he was a top pick if someone is betting from a line perspective. Even if they had him at 50-1 and not 65-1, there's value there.

I want to know the handicapper who has a program/method/system that can separate horses that have a 2% chance to win versus 1.53%. I am amazed at how many people still don't understand concept of "value"/overlays, or how difficult it is to create an accurate betting line.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by headhawg

I want to know the handicapper who has a program/method/system that can separate horses that have a 2% chance to win versus 1.53%. I am amazed at how many people still don't understand concept of "value"/overlays, or how difficult it is to create an accurate betting line.

Pretty comfortable with value/overlays. Not difficult to have a model which prices a runner at 2% instead of 1.53%.

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Not difficult to have a model which prices a runner at 2% instead of 1.53%.

Prove it.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by dansan

Pretty sure that Country House might of been top pick according to calibration handicapping Horse was 5W last race correct me if Im wrong

He's always wide.

[maidenbreaker]

lol fond memories. i think i went to the track that day with $300 and was down to my last $40. I remember Fabre saying that the horse had back problems and hoped dirt would help him. so i put $30 in box exactas and $8 to win on Arcangues. Watching the race I never really saw where he was and then in deep stretch i saw a blur passing the leader the inside. I didnt hit the exacta but it still was a surprising winning day. My pick in the derby was war of will, and I think the dq was a tough call. it looked like war of will was running on top of he dq ed horse and may have caused him to veer out . I think Gafflione bears some responsibility for this.

[dansan]

Rookie

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Prove it.

I won't. You'll have to convince yourself or take my word for it

[highnote]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Prove it.

Plenty of models will do that, the question is, how accurate are they?

A .07% difference is not very much. You would need a large sample of bets made and the outcomes compiled where the difference is 0.07% between the two sample populations. Then on top of that, one or two winning or losing bets could throw off the averages in the short run. Getting a large enough sample would be the key and that could mean gathering maybe thousands of bets?

Seems like the Central Limit Theorem comes into play here.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Keep in mind, it doesn't even matter if he was a top pick if someone is betting from a line perspective. Even if they had him at 50-1 and not 65-1, there's value there.

If you don't mind waiting forever or run out of money before he wins.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

He's always wide.

Right, and he figured to be even wider in the Derby, especially given his wide post.. He was very lucky to get a much better trip as well as other horses getting terrible trips or getting themselves DQed. He also ran very well and the race of his life.

[spiketoo]

Originally Posted by PIC6SIX

Arcangues was ridden by who???? If my memory serves me correctly the jock was non other than Mr. Jerry Bailey, "The Master". Now that says something. That was a valid reason to bet that horse. Is Flavien Plat a Jerry Bailey, no way.

You vastly underestimate Prat. He's one of the best in this country and prolly gets overlooked being based on the LeftCoast. I good jock can't make a bad horse win, but a good jock can help an unknown quantity - which was my gamble here.

With OB out, I thought it was rather a lackluster field. No one really grabbed my attention. I know Prat's agent is shrewd and has a good eye based on Prat's continued success. I don't bet a horse outright based on the jock and let's face it, CH has been mediocre at best. But they're 3YOs and still figuring out the game. And I gave Mott the benefit that this wasn't just a vanity entry but who really knows? I couldn't let this horse get off at 65-1 with Prat - I felt he was better than that. Yeah, no capping numbers to speak of just a sheetload of intangibles.

Wasn't even going to bet but decided to head to the OTB (which is a zoo with all the amateurs) and hang out with the old farts. Only bet was CH ACB. Granted the horse peaked and there wasn't much traffic issues other than the obvious, but Prat kept him in the open the entire time anticipating some may backup which really never transpired much in front of him. Still think it was an unheralded ride but obviously I'm in the minority.

So I'm just sitting there fat and happy after the initial results. After about 10 minutes, I decide to check TS to see what the dist is on MS in the P&S pools. Fig'd that maybe I'm sitting on $70 or so combined for each bet. Needless to say (tho I will), I was just as fat but oh so much happier after the DQ. We've all been on both ends before so as always, YMMV.

Course afterwards I read Haskins writeup over at BH about all the machinations that transpired for Prat to eventually end up on CH. Had I known then...

Prat is every bit as good as anyone - Ortiz bros, JohnV etc. Hopefully he'll be around for years. Dismiss him at your own peril.

[Suff]

The exotics seem lite for a $120 winner on top.