Same Trip Different Impact

[classhandicapper]

One of the things I noticed long ago is that when speed horses get loose or catch a speed bias, they don't all benefit equally. Some horses will move up a LOT and others hardly at all. I always considered that a function of how much natural speed the horse has, how easily it relaxes on its own, and how much stamina it has. The greater the natural speed and the less the stamina/relaxation the horse has, the greater the potential impact of a favorable trip on the horse's speed figure and performance and vice versa.

I think to a large extend that's also true of pace.

How often do we see 3 or 4 horses go for the lead, the cheaper losers of the chase often back up very badly relative to their typical figures, but the fastest highest quality horse goes on to win or at least run a figure similar to his norm. Only when it gets very extreme do they all collapse.

Now I'm starting to think the same is true of ground loss.

Setting aside if there's a bias or a specific horse prefers running inside or outside, I think horses with greater reserves of stamina and energy are impacted less by ground loss than those with stamina issues where the extra exertion of trying to get into position for the win while wide hurts them a lot more.

I guess what I'm getting at is that I think many handicappers make adjustments for being loose, dueling, being wide, racing with or against a bias etc.. as if all horses are impacted somewhat equally, but I think that's false. Each horse has a different amount of natural speed and stamina even when they are similar in overall ability. Depending on their personal attributes and the trip they receive, the impact of the same exact trip will vary significantly from horse to horse depending on their combination of speed/stamina and what the trip was.

Just some random thoughts on a boring day

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

One of the things I noticed long ago is that when speed horses get loose or catch a speed bias, they don't all benefit equally. Some horses will move up a LOT and others hardly at all. I always considered that a function of how much natural speed the horse has, how easily it relaxes on its own, and how much stamina it has. The greater the natural speed and the less the stamina/relaxation the horse has, the greater the potential impact of a favorable trip on the horse's speed figure and performance and vice versa.

I think to a large extend that's also true of pace.

How often do we see 3 or 4 horses go for the lead, the cheaper losers of the chase often back up very badly relative to their typical figures, but the fastest highest quality horse goes on to win or at least run a figure similar to his norm. Only when it gets very extreme do they all collapse.

Now I'm starting to think the same is true of ground loss.

Setting aside if there's a bias or a specific horse prefers running inside or outside, I think horses with greater reserves of stamina and energy are impacted less by ground loss than those with stamina issues where the extra exertion of trying to get into position for the win while wide hurts them a lot more.

I guess what I'm getting at is that I think many handicappers make adjustments for being loose, dueling, being wide, racing with or against a bias etc.. as if all horses are impacted somewhat equally, but I think that's false. Each horse has a different amount of natural speed and stamina even when they are similar in overall ability. Depending on their personal attributes and the trip they receive, the impact of the same exact trip will vary significantly from horse to horse depending on their combination of speed/stamina and what the trip was.

Just some random thoughts on a boring day

The hard part is doing all the homework to gather the info to make better adjustments.

I am curious as to how you judge stamina. On dirt where 99% of the horses are decelerating in the last part of a race, can a horse actually find stamina? I understand that some horses have an extremely competitive nature that makes them want to win races but can that be quantified? I think that the ability to relax is essential for stamina.. There are horses that hate running inside and can relax much better on the outside and will show more stamina as a result.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

The hard part is doing all the homework to gather the info to make better adjustments.

I am curious as to how you judge stamina. On dirt where 99% of the horses are decelerating in the last part of a race, can a horse actually find stamina? I understand that some horses have an extremely competitive nature that makes them want to win races but can that be quantified? I think that the ability to relax is essential for stamina.. There are horses that hate running inside and can relax much better on the outside and will show more stamina as a result.

Most of the time I don't have a strong opinion until after the fact.

In this case I'm thinking of stamina as reserve racing energy at a distance we already know the horse can handle if the trip is fairly easy.

I subscribe to the theory that given a decent setup and a reason to do their best, all very good horses will run fast figures, but not all horses that run fast figures are very good.

I think the way you separate them is via tough trips in competitively run races and how they handle them. A very good horse will overcome a fast pace, run through a bias, win despite ground loss etc..and still put up a similar figure. It usually takes an extreme trip or a horse of similar quality to beat them.

Cheaper horses seem to fold completely against adversity.

Middle of the road horses may get beat, but they run well enough to sometimes sucker you into thinking they are very good.

The trickiest ones are the lightly raced MSW and ALW horses. A lot of them will run very fast if they get loose in a weak field, but they get killed once they step up and face a hotter pace and quicker horses. Other horses with a set of PPs that looks exactly the same at them will run even faster when challenged.

It's a somewhat perplexing problem because two horses can cross the finish line in the exact same final time but one might might be close to exhausted and the other still loaded with reserve energy. Make the pace a little faster and tougher, the former might collapse and the other run faster.

[dlivery]

The race starts as soon as the Gate PoP's.
And is a good source to start with questions.

[classhandicapper]

I am curious as to how you judge stamina. On dirt where 99% of the horses are decelerating in the last part of a race, can a horse actually find stamina?

With experienced horses, one of the things I find useful (but imperfect) is looking at the horse's prior speed figures.

Assume a horse typically runs figures in the mid 90s.

Assume it gets hung 3-4 wide both turns and runs a figure of 94.

There are 2 possibilities.

Either it ran a monster new top or being wide had very little impact on its figure. You might want to look at how being wide impacted other horses in the same race, but I think more often than not that horse will come back and run another mid 90s figure in its next start. It won't run a 100+ with a more average trip (substitute tough pace or against bias and it's the same thing).

Now take the same horse, but instead of running a 94 with a wide trip it ran an 84. Now I think there's a better chance being wide hurt that horse and it will return to the mid 90s next out.

Rather than trying to guess the impact a tough trip had on a horse, you are using prior figures to help you determine if the trip had an impact and how much.

It's gets trickier with lightly raced or other more inconsistent horses because you have so much less to work with and the horses are sometimes also developing.

[classhandicapper]

It works the opposite way also.

Assume some deep closer typically runs figures in the high 90s or low 100s.

Assume there's a fast pace duel in front of it and it runs a figure of 108.

It's very likely the fast pace helped that horse run that huge figure and it will drop back down to its typical level next out.

Now assume the same fast pace, but the horse ran a 100.

now it's probably more likely the horse will run another 100 next time. It won't drop down to a low 90s or high 80s with an average pace.

In both cases, rather than assuming all horses are impacted the same way by the same trip, we are using their figure history to try to help us figure out how the horse was impacted, if at all.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It works the opposite way also.

Assume some deep closer typically runs figures in the high 90s or low 100s.

Assume there's a fast pace duel in front of it and it runs a figure of 108.

It's very likely the fast pace helped that horse run that huge figure and it will drop back down to its typical level next out.

Now assume the same fast pace, but the horse ran a 100.

now it's probably more likely the horse will run another 100 next time. It won't drop down to a low 90s or high 80s with an average pace.

In both cases, rather than assuming all horses are impacted the same way by the same trip, we are using their figure history to try to help us figure out how the horse was impacted, if at all.

I like the topic.

In this quote = 'running style' comes to mind. A closer w/out tactical speed is going to have sit (obviously) further-back, as well as at times losing ground, closing wide into the stretch. Can't constantly 'upgrade' for that, and pace and/or pars will produce outlier speed figs on occasion.

Flip a coin = along the opposite end, is also significant. A strong favorite will at times race in the clear, and lose ground. Can't constantly 'upgrade' for stuff like that.

Beyond types like these, some of what you are saying sounds like the 'Class' of an individual horse. Interesting topic, and one I'd be interested in learning more about, as it is part of the homework of making the adjustments.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It works the opposite way also.

Assume some deep closer typically runs figures in the high 90s or low 100s.

Assume there's a fast pace duel in front of it and it runs a figure of 108.

It's very likely the fast pace helped that horse run that huge figure and it will drop back down to its typical level next out.

Now assume the same fast pace, but the horse ran a 100.

now it's probably more likely the horse will run another 100 next time. It won't drop down to a low 90s or high 80s with an average pace.

In both cases, rather than assuming all horses are impacted the same way by the same trip, we are using their figure history to try to help us figure out how the horse was impacted, if at all.

While I certainly believe that how a race is run can affect the final time and number I have never seen evidence that a fast pace (dirt only) makes a deep closer run faster.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

While I certainly believe that how a race is run can affect the final time and number I have never seen evidence that a fast pace (dirt only) makes a deep closer run faster.

I've seen too many "examples" of fast paces leading to a lifetime tops for deep closers that didn't ultimately get paired (among top horses) to think they were random events.

Most likely it happens when a very deep closer gets dragged into running more efficient fractions than it normally runs lagging way behind a moderate pace or when it makes its move into contention the race is collapsing so badly in the middle the horse isn't used as hard to get past other horses. Then it finishes very strongly. I'd throw the possibility of drafting behind fast paces in there also, but I have no idea how prove or quantify that. At least I can watch the suspect races develop and speculate.

[jay68802]

Look at Zenyata's best figures. All had fast paces.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Beyond types like these, some of what you are saying sounds like the 'Class' of an individual horse. Interesting topic, and one I'd be interested in learning more about, as it is part of the homework of making the adjustments.

I was reluctant to use the word "class" because people have all sort of ideas about what class is. I think it's a word that describes ability that is only revealed under tougher conditions.

Two horses can look similar on figures but maybe one can accelerate better, is more versatile, quicker out of the fate, has more stamina, is more competitive, relaxes better whether on the lead or off the pace etc..

When the demands are tougher, the better horse can still run his figure and the cheaper horse starts to fall apart.

[classhandicapper]

Take a look at Celtic Striker in today's 8th at Belmont.

I have no idea what his figure is going to be, but Belmont was kind to speed today on dirt. He's a pretty fast horse, but he tends to tire.

He was the perfect candidate to move WAY UP loose on the lead on a track like that. His problem routing has been stamina, not speed. Being loose on a track carrying speed was exactly what he needed for an explosive move forward.

Another speed horse with plenty of stamina may have also won under conditions like that, but imo it would have benefited WAY less.

I don't hate Celtic Striker as a horse. I had him running fairly well in the Matt Winn where I made the track titled towards closers (discussed in another thread). So IMO, he's better than an 82 horse to begin with. But if he gets some gigantic number out of this race, I'm probably going to downgrade it to something in the mid to upper 80s. I won't be using a formula. I'll be using my assessment of him going into the race.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Take a look at Celtic Striker in today's 8th at Belmont.

I have no idea what his figure is going to be, but Belmont was kind to speed today on dirt. He's a pretty fast horse, but he tends to tire.

He was the perfect candidate to move WAY UP loose on the lead on a track like that. His problem routing has been stamina, not speed. Being loose on a track carrying speed was exactly what he needed for an explosive move forward.

Another speed horse with plenty of stamina may have also won under conditions like that, but imo it would have benefited WAY less.

I don't hate Celtic Striker as a horse. I had him running fairly well in the Matt Winn where I made the track titled towards closers (discussed in another thread). So IMO, he's better than an 82 horse to begin with. But if he gets some gigantic number out of this race, I'm probably going to downgrade it to something in the mid to upper 80s. I won't be using a formula. I'll be using my assessment of him going into the race.

That race was a really cool example of a pace advantage.

.............->>

[cj]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

That race was a really cool example of a pace advantage.

.............->>

The prices on those two horses were nuts. I never thought I'd see value in a match race.

Fig should be fun, I'll post here when done.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

The prices on those two horses were nuts. I never thought I'd see value in a match race.

Fig should be fun, I'll post here when done.

I bet him too.

That may have been the most obvious overlay I've seen in a year.