Will Belmont even have a meet this year?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Better to read the news,

The number is 569 not 18


https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavi...ce4-story.html

Allan

The New York City government website lays out on a daily basis when the deaths occurred. Both the news article you cited and the government website agree on the total deaths but there seems to be a math issue with the NY Daily News as to when those deaths occurred.

[Zman179]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

That is crazy, I work in downtown NYC and my colleagues have been talking about when we will go back to work (we are telecommuting now) and we all agree the subways there is just no way to social distance. May 18th looks like the next possible day we could go back to "normal" but I could see it being longer than that for the city. Sorry to hear about all the losses. my father worked for the TA in East NY and 207th Street.

We might not get back to normal until the fall (hopefully), all we can do is try to stay safe! Did your father work for Car Equipment?

[Zman179]

Originally Posted by AndyC

The New York City government website lays out on a daily basis when the deaths occurred. Both the news article you cited and the government website agree on the total deaths but there seems to be a math issue with the NY Daily News as to when those deaths occurred.

You cannot put faith into the city data until they properly update it. I would estimate the last three days of city data are incomplete.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Zman179

I meant to say that the vast majority are in NY City and its immediate suburbs; I stated previously that 95% of ALL state deaths are in NYC and its suburbs. FYI the NYC website is stating that recent data is incomplete due to reporting delays.

Nonetheless, as New Yorkers we are just trying to not get sick and to survive this pandemic. Heck I even have to wear a mask and gloves just to throw out my garbage because two families on my floor are COVID positive. Bottom line is that everyone here is in fear because you don’t know how your body is going to react to the virus unless you actually get it.

I am in no way trying to downplay the horrible effects that the virus has had on people either directly or indirectly. The pain and suffering has been real.

The question comes down to what should we do going forward and when should we do it? My comments have been to opine through a look at the stats that NYC is way ahead of the curve and should be looking to open very soon albeit with the vulnerable still on the sidelines.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Zman179

You cannot put faith into the city data until they properly update it. I would estimate the last three days of city data are incomplete.

It looks like the 20th was updated. It showed a decrease in deaths from 177 to 96 from the 19th to the 20th and also a decrease in hospitalizations from 165 to 26.

The key number to look at is the new hospitalizations which have been dropping consistently for quite a few days. That is a leading indicator of what to expect in the increase or decrease of fatalities going forward.

[Zman179]

Originally Posted by AndyC

The question comes down to what should we do going forward and when should we do it? My comments have been to opine through a look at the stats that NYC is way ahead of the curve and should be looking to open very soon albeit with the vulnerable still on the sidelines.

NYC is nowhere near opening up. Other cities they are close, upstate NY is close, we are not. We have too many people that are sick and too many that haven’t been tested. Public transportation has been the biggest cause of the outbreak, so if we start opening up too soon with so many people being asymptomatic, we’ll be in the crosshairs for a second outbreak. On Monday there were 1,308 new hospitalizations in New York State, so there’s no way that I can believe that approximately 98% of those came from outside the five boroughs. I believe they are down, but not THAT far down.

The Daily Mail has written a good piece on our current state of affairs:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-March-25.html

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I am in no way trying to downplay the horrible effects that the virus has had on people either directly or indirectly. The pain and suffering has been real.

The question comes down to what should we do going forward and when should we do it? My comments have been to opine through a look at the stats that NYC is way ahead of the curve and should be looking to open very soon albeit with the vulnerable still on the sidelines.

You got a number of things wrong, always on the optimistic side, earlier on.

Policymakers have to err on the side of caution. A lot more people could get killed if they don't.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

You got a number of things wrong, always on the optimistic side, earlier on.

Policymakers have to err on the side of caution. A lot more people could get killed if they don't.

It's not optimistic. It's realistic.

People consumed by fear have lost their sense of reality...thus, reality seems like optimism to them.

[ReplayRandall]

Has Capo Cuomo from the United States of New York, weighed in with his opinion on the status of when NYRA's tracks will reopen?

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Afleet

I think people will be up in arms if there is no Saratoga meet. I'm not from NY or the area but you are starting to see more and more protests across the country. People are not going to stay indoors during the summer especially after being indoors all winter

I feel the same way. There may be a little class warfare here, too. Obviously the rich and elite are going to want to shut down longer. But the governor's have a tricky situation on their hands because they know that they can't stay closed down forever without social unrest the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time, not to mention catastrophic economic collapse.

[Hambletonian]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

That is crazy, I work in downtown NYC and my colleagues have been talking about when we will go back to work (we are telecommuting now) and we all agree the subways there is just no way to social distance. May 18th looks like the next possible day we could go back to "normal" but I could see it being longer than that for the city. Sorry to hear about all the losses. my father worked for the TA in East NY and 207th Street.

Same here, and I have a daily 4.5 hour roundtrip bus ride commute. No social distancing on the bus, the subway, or the train. Just not possible. And if you want to drive in, there are very few parking garages.

Frankly, even getting back all the commuting hours, I am fricking worn out teleworking. When you work in the office you come and go. Not so much at home. And the operator of my bus line has suspended all operations, and who knows how long it will take to ramp it back up.

I can see some relaxing of the restrictions in June...but I imagine if you commute to NYC and work in an office...working life is not getting back to normal any time soon.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by pandy

not to mention catastrophic economic collapse.

Oh, that's already happened. They just haven't talked about it much on the news....that's the next phase of fear.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Better to read the news,

The number is 569 not 18


https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavi...ce4-story.html

Allan

You are saying 4/21 was the WORST day so far in NYC?
I think the Daily News if not the reliable one here.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Hambletonian

Same here, and I have a daily 4.5 hour roundtrip bus ride commute. No social distancing on the bus, the subway, or the train. Just not possible. And if you want to drive in, there are very few parking garages.

Frankly, even getting back all the commuting hours, I am fricking worn out teleworking. When you work in the office you come and go. Not so much at home. And the operator of my bus line has suspended all operations, and who knows how long it will take to ramp it back up.

I can see some relaxing of the restrictions in June...but I imagine if you commute to NYC and work in an office...working life is not getting back to normal any time soon.

This is what I have been hearing from everyone I know in New York.

"Reopening" NYC (1) is not going to happen as long as there's still large numbers of new infections or deaths (even if those numbers are declining); and (2) is going to be a slow, arduous process when it does occur because a lot of people are going to be very afraid to take public transportation, walk the streets, or patronize stores.

And I get the feeling this is sort of an abstract issue to a lot of folks who are calling for reopening. To reopen, you need trust. It isn't just a decree from Gov. Cuomo. You need people to actually believe that they can safely go about their business. And when 11,000 people have died in your city, that's not something that is going to come quickly.

Finally, the notion that New Yorkers are going to rise up and revolt against restrictions seems completely off base to me. That may happen in places where there haven't been a lot of deaths, but New Yorkers are HAUNTED by what has happened. It's already more than three 9/11's, and it took New Yorkers years to process 9/11.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

You got a number of things wrong, always on the optimistic side, earlier on.

Policymakers have to err on the side of caution. A lot more people could get killed if they don't.

Surely you're familiar with the term all cause mortality? How many people will die because of the shutdown or suffer serious medical consequences due to stress? Throw on top of that the daunting task of having to rebuild their lives financially. If they want to err on the side of caution they would want to open up ASAP.