Controversy at the BCBC.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Andy here is the problem with betting in these tournaments against teams. Let's say me and 2 buddies all have 2 entries each. So in total we have 6 entries. Our Strategy is to each play our entire bankroll on 2 live longshots(horses in the 10 to 20 to one range that we feel has about-will call it a 10% chance of winning).


Binomial distribution tables tell us that the chances of hitting

0 of 6 is 53.1% in which case we go belly up and wait for next year.
1 of 6 is 35.4% in which case we are near the top of the leaderboard
2 of 6 is 9.8% in which case we have 2 entires near the top of the leaderboard
3 of 6 is 1.5% in which case we have 3 entries near the top of the leaserboard.

There is a 46.9 5 chance that we will crush the typical challenger who is trying to grow his $7500. Now you can argue about penalties, but seriously, it is not that hard to play your account tight and tread water until it is time to pounce.

Now what happen if instead of 3 guys with 2 entries it is now 5 guys with 2 entries playing the same strategy.

Now you have

0 of 10 is 34.9%
1 of 10 is 38.7%
2 of 10 is 19.4%
3 of 10 is 5.7 %
4 of 10 is 1.1%.

Now this is one strategy. I am sure these teams many strategies that they comingle. Bottom line is it is the sucker bet of the ages for the lone wolf. The whole idea is stupid and has little to do with the ability to handicap. It is a betting platform that awards syndicates more than any other in this game.

Exactly...! And this is what the minus balances at the bottom of the leaderboard point to, only these were the losing portions of the overall strategies....

[davew]

Originally Posted by Charli125

They could also go all-in earlier in the tournament. If you bust early by default you'll get penalties and I know that happened to a lot of the names on that list including Bobby Flay for example. I went bust on both entries prior to the last 2 races.

If you went bust on the 1st race of day 2 your score would be 0-8K in penalty points. If you didn't play a race the whole tournament your score would be 7,500-5K for day 1-10K for day 2.

In short, it's hard to look at the negative scores at the end of the tournament to determine anything.

I was wondering what score you would have if you busted after the second race on day 1 - looks like ($13,000)

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Andy here is the problem with betting in these tournaments against teams. Let's say me and 2 buddies all have 2 entries each. So in total we have 6 entries. Our Strategy is to each play our entire bankroll on 2 live longshots(horses in the 10 to 20 to one range that we feel has about-will call it a 10% chance of winning).


Binomial distribution tables tell us that the chances of hitting

0 of 6 is 53.1% in which case we go belly up and wait for next year.
1 of 6 is 35.4% in which case we are near the top of the leaderboard
2 of 6 is 9.8% in which case we have 2 entires near the top of the leaderboard
3 of 6 is 1.5% in which case we have 3 entries near the top of the leaserboard.

There is a 46.9 5 chance that we will crush the typical challenger who is trying to grow his $7500. Now you can argue about penalties, but seriously, it is not that hard to play your account tight and tread water until it is time to pounce.

Now what happen if instead of 3 guys with 2 entries it is now 5 guys with 2 entries playing the same strategy.

Now you have

0 of 10 is 34.9%
1 of 10 is 38.7%
2 of 10 is 19.4%
3 of 10 is 5.7 %
4 of 10 is 1.1%.

Now this is one strategy. I am sure these teams many strategies that they comingle. Bottom line is it is the sucker bet of the ages for the lone wolf. The whole idea is stupid and has little to do with the ability to handicap. It is a betting platform that awards syndicates more than any other in this game.

Again, I am not disputing the power of dutching with partners. I know how it works and have done it many moons ago. It was a common practice at most tournaments.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Charli125

....The first issue I'll address is the skill of the winner, and Moomey. Skill is not in question. The winner and the entire Pick Six Boys group are all very good handicappers and contest players. They've proven this over and over. The betting on the last two races of the contest was excellent. Moomey in choosing the race to dutch or partially dutch, also showed his skill. A high priced favorite is the best kind of race to play that way....

For those of you who haven't heard the latest, Christian Hellmers won both first and second place in a live money contest at Del Mar this past weekend.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Charli125

..... When I learned that they actually have a formal partnership, including an LLC, to manage their combined tournament play, I was shocked. I didn't know LLC's were allowed to enter tournaments. Knowing that they do have a formal partnership they would be idiots(and they're not) not to coordinate entries to result in the best overall return. Otherwise, why have a partnership?...

Are you sure the LLC is just for tournaments and not general betting as well? It is actually a smart way to run a betting operation.

[Charli125]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Are you sure the LLC is just for tournaments and not general betting as well? It is actually a smart way to run a betting operation.

All I know is what he said in the article. Gabbay and McFarland, not sure about anyone else, have an LLC that they share for contest purposes. I don't have any inside info, though I wish I did. Never met Gabbay and only met McFarland once in passing.

[Charli125]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Are you sure the LLC is just for tournaments and not general betting as well? It is actually a smart way to run a betting operation.

And I understand why an LLC would be good for betting and tournament play, but I can't think of a reason to have a multiple member LLC. Maybe there's something I haven't thought of though.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Just as a side note, I did so compiling of the BCBC Leaderboard and participants pages information available on their website:

1. Says 435 total entries (I have heard report of 444).
2. There are only 175 participants listed, of which 21 persons were listed as double entries.
3. An additional 42 persons were double entered (not listed) bringing the total double entries to at least 63 persons (I may have missed some). This represents at least 30 percent of the total entries.

Some other thoughts:

A. The fact that double entries are allowed forms the backbone for "Team Play" and sets the precedent.
B. I view this as a imbalance that works against the interests of lone players working with one entry only.
C. The Team Play is really an extension of the double entry format so it would be best to eliminate the double entry to begin with.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by AndyC

For those of you who haven't heard the latest, Christian Hellmers won both first and second place in a live money contest at Del Mar this past weekend.

Rules for this past contest:https://www.dmtc.com/calendar/detail/novhcrules
The Format does not include penalties on this one, just DQ for not betting on requirements.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Charli125

And I understand why an LLC would be good for betting and tournament play, but I can't think of a reason to have a multiple member LLC. Maybe there's something I haven't thought of though.

Simple. As a multiple member LLC you can allocate profits and losses as you see fit. The main handicapper might want a bigger cut of the winnings based on doing most of the work. Lot's of flexibility in an LLC operating agreement.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Simple. As a multiple member LLC you can allocate profits and losses as you see fit. The main handicapper might want a bigger cut of the winnings based on doing most of the work. Lot's of flexibility in an LLC operating agreement.

Isn't an LLC, technically, a legal individual...?

[davew]

It sure looks like a Pic6 group taking down carryovers and big handicapping contests.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Isn't an LLC, technically, a legal individual...?

It's a legal entity. Not sure what your point is with this question.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by AndyC

It's a legal entity. Not sure what your point is with this question.

Just wondering if contest organizers can legally NOT ALLOW LLC's to enter...?

Some background from Wiki

"Juridical personhood allows one or more natural persons (universitas personarum) to act as a single entity (body corporate) for legal purposes. In many jurisdictions, artificial personality allows that entity to be considered under law separately from its individual members (for example in a company limited by shares, its shareholders). They may sue and be sued, enter contracts, incur debt, and own property. Entities with legal personality may also be subjected to certain legal obligations, such as the payment of taxes. An entity with legal personality may shield its members from personal liability."

So if an entry is made under the person of an LLC, it's members might be able to concur, and make decisions together, and maybe it would not be considered colluding..?

Seems like two or more people would have to enter as the LLC to begin with though, but I'm no lawyer so who knows...Just like a fellow poster asked awhile back, if LLC's were permitted to enter contests...?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Just wondering if contest organizers can legally NOT ALLOW LLC's to enter...?

Some background from Wiki

"Juridical personhood allows one or more natural persons (universitas personarum) to act as a single entity (body corporate) for legal purposes. In many jurisdictions, artificial personality allows that entity to be considered under law separately from its individual members (for example in a company limited by shares, its shareholders). They may sue and be sued, enter contracts, incur debt, and own property. Entities with legal personality may also be subjected to certain legal obligations, such as the payment of taxes. An entity with legal personality may shield its members from personal liability."

So if an entry is made under the person of an LLC, it's members might be able to concur, and make decisions together, and maybe it would not be considered colluding..?

Seems like two or more people would have to enter as the LLC to begin with though, but I'm no lawyer so who knows...Just like a fellow poster asked awhile back, if LLC's were permitted to enter contests...?

Of course they can disallow LLC's. A handicapping contest is a private enterprise. Absent a special legal rule in a particular context, any enterprise can refuse to contract with limited liability entities and require that a natural person assume personal liability.