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12-15-2018, 04:13 PM
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#31
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds
Yes, of course.
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Dave's question was "Are they a pattern that can be expected to repeat?" or is it just a normal part of the experience?
My question is "Should we also be looking for the "Mirror" to show itself in said pattern as well?
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12-15-2018, 05:31 PM
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#32
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,926
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds
I believe what I'm saying may be something a little stronger.... that a run of 6 heads in a row in a string of 100 tosses IS NOT A STRANGE THING AT ALL.
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LOL - Come on... Work with me here.
(Currently taking a course on diplomacy.)
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12-15-2018, 06:30 PM
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#33
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
LOL - Come on... Work with me here.
(Currently taking a course on diplomacy.)
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Work harder on that diplomacy Dave, I think you chased him off.
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12-15-2018, 07:07 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
I'm just jealous that I pointed out these kinds of errors by The Oracle and got all kinds of nasty messages and negative reputation points from him and his followers, yet he's willing to take it from you. Must be nice to be charming...
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First of all Cast I have asked you several times to provide your expertise on my so called errors but you never respond maybe it’s because you cannot come up with anything on your own and this is a perfect example of you piggy backing off someone else’s work
Also, please don’t play the victim here I respond negatively to you because of your negative responses to me
So please do us all a favor and cut and run like you usually do
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12-15-2018, 11:46 PM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
LOL - Come on... Work with me here.
(Currently taking a course on diplomacy.)
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All Good....No Worries
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
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12-16-2018, 12:06 AM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
this is a perfect example of you piggy backing off someone else’s work
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I can't take credit for this as my work...
It's actually Blaise Pascal's and Pierre de Fermat's work (and from the 17th Century no less)
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
Last edited by Wizard of Odds; 12-16-2018 at 12:12 AM.
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12-16-2018, 12:23 AM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds
I can't take credit for this as my work...
It's actually Blaise Pascal's and Pierre de Fermat's work (and from the 17th Century no less)
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Yeah but he's a coward that always ducks and runs when he's asked to provide something meaningful so how could he have possibly called me out on my so called errors
Last edited by TheOracle; 12-16-2018 at 12:25 AM.
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12-16-2018, 12:27 AM
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#38
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Yeah but he's a coward that always ducks and runs when he's asked to provide something meaningful so how could he have possibly called me out on my so called errors
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Who are you talking about??..
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12-16-2018, 12:30 AM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Who are you talking about??..
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I am talking about this guy castaway
Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
I'm just jealous that I pointed out these kinds of errors by The Oracle and got all kinds of nasty messages and negative reputation points from him and his followers, yet he's willing to take it from you. Must be nice to be charming...
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He's never provided me with any example of any so called errors that I have made
I have asked him repeatedly to provide me with his so called expertise on not just this but any matter and he has never been able to do so. Only cowards do that
Last edited by TheOracle; 12-16-2018 at 12:42 AM.
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12-16-2018, 10:09 AM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Dave's question was "Are they a pattern that can be expected to repeat?" or is it just a normal part of the experience?
My question is "Should we also be looking for the "Mirror" to show itself in said pattern as well?
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Yes, same with "mirror" tails
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
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12-16-2018, 10:21 AM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Looks like today will be Sloppy surface at Aqueduct
We have these 5/2 Morning Line Claimers today
Code:
1 12-16-2018 2nd race 6 Monteleone (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
2 12-16-2018 3rd race 1 Big Thicket (NY) Claiming One Mile L Rice 5/2# Dirt
3 12-16-2018 3rd race 1A Fillet of Sole (KY) Claiming One Mile J Servis 5/2# Dirt
4 12-16-2018 5th race 1 Salty Smile (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
5 12-16-2018 6th race 5 Starship Zeus (KY) Claiming One Mile C Baker 5/2# Dirt
I am particularly interested in Rodriguez's horse in the 5th race
#1 Salty Smile
Let's see how he does today at the Big A!!!
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12-16-2018, 11:38 AM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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Have you kept records of all your recommendations to date?
How many races have you made recommendations?
What is the win percentage?
What is the ROI?
Has your win %/ROI been better or worse than mechanically:
1) Always betting the top M/L for every race; or
2) Always betting the top BRIS Power Prime rated horse for every race; or
3) Always betting the favorite for every race
In other words, what has been your track record compared to commonly available baseline metrics?
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
Last edited by Wizard of Odds; 12-16-2018 at 11:46 AM.
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12-16-2018, 12:18 PM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds
Have you kept records of all your recommendations to date?
How many races have you made recommendations?
What is the win percentage?
What is the ROI?
Has your win %/ROI been better or worse than mechanically:
1) Always betting the top M/L for every race; or
2) Always betting the top BRIS Power Prime rated horse for every race; or
3) Always betting the favorite for every race
In other words, what has been your track record compared to commonly available baseline metrics?
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I haven’t kept records of my recommendations but I believe it would be easy for me to gather doing a search in this forum under my handle
As for BRIS I wouldn’t have a record of their power ratings etc. versus my selections
I think I can get my records but would have a problem comparing against other selections since I don’t know their information
I’m sorry I hadn’t though of it sooner I didn’t expect to post as much as I did on this site when I first started
Last edited by TheOracle; 12-16-2018 at 12:22 PM.
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12-16-2018, 12:45 PM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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That's okay, because many have posted items 1), 2) and 3) over recent years/tracks so we can do the comparison after you gather the info for your picks.
I think it would be very impressive if you made over 300 picks and your picks resulted in an ROI above 1.05.
On the other hand, if your picks resulted in an ROI between .75 and .90, then I believe you might want to rethink your world view of horse racing gambling because you would not be significantly outperforming baseline metrics and (without rebates) your picks would have resulted in a substantial long term loss.
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
Last edited by Wizard of Odds; 12-16-2018 at 12:57 PM.
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12-16-2018, 12:55 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Looks like today will be Sloppy surface at Aqueduct
We have these 5/2 Morning Line Claimers today
Code:
1 12-16-2018 2nd race 6 Monteleone (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
2 12-16-2018 3rd race 1 Big Thicket (NY) Claiming One Mile L Rice 5/2# Dirt
3 12-16-2018 3rd race 1A Fillet of Sole (KY) Claiming One Mile J Servis 5/2# Dirt
4 12-16-2018 5th race 1 Salty Smile (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
5 12-16-2018 6th race 5 Starship Zeus (KY) Claiming One Mile C Baker 5/2# Dirt
I am particularly interested in Rodriguez's horse in the 5th race
#1 Salty Smile
Let's see how he does today at the Big A!!!
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Keep on posting. I always like reading all your posts.
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