When do you know the race is over?

[Fort Erie Fanatic]

Lately, I have been able to know whether or not my horse has a shot before the race is half over. The horses will be racing down the back, and I can tell by the horses alertness and pace, whether or not my horse has a shot.

For example; I had a horse to win, at turfway the other day, and he was sitting 5th or 6th going into the final turn, and I turned to my dad and said "I won", sure enough the horse fires and accelerates to a nice 2 length win.

Unfortunately, I can also tell when my horse has no chance in hell, even if he's running up front. My first question is: "Do you experience the same thing?"
"If yes, how do you know and how early" and is "this good or bad"(thinking i've won before the race is over).

[maxwell]

When the fat lady sings.

[sjk]

If you watch enough races you get very tuned in to how hard a horse is working to achieve his position so you have a good sense of what he has left to give.

[Overlay]

As you say, you're judging by how the horse is running, and whether the race is setting up in the way that you envisioned, or in a manner that suits (or doesn't suit) your horse's running style. It would be only natural that over time, and with exposure to an increasing number of race profiles or scenarios, you'd be able to develop a reliable projection (at about the point in the race that you indicated) as to whether your horse is going to win the race or not (barring some major unforeseen event, such as a breakdown of any of the runners).

[Mineshaft]

When my horse is going into the far turn and other horses start passing him i know im done

[Stillriledup]

When the stewards decide not to disqualify you for breathing on a rival. It ain't over until you actually cash your ticket and have the money in hand.

[Trotman]

When your ticket hits the floor it's over

[Willy Wonka]

Don't get excited until the announcer says, "its official"

[Tom]

Generally when the gate opens.
Sometimes in the past parade.

[raybo]

Usually, if I even watch the race in the first place (most times I don't watch races, I either hit or I don't), once I see the 1st call time and the position of my win horse, I know if I have analyzed the expected pace correctly. If the expected pace/position is about what I thought it would be, then I'm live until the next call, then the next and then if the pace/position is still close I feel pretty confident that I've got the winner. If the pace is wrong, at any call, then more often than not, the race is over.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by raybo

Usually, if I even watch the race in the first place (most times I don't watch races, I either hit or I don't), once I see the 1st call time and the position of my win horse, I know if I have analyzed the expected pace correctly. If the expected pace/position is about what I thought it would be, then I'm live until the next call, then the next and then if the pace/position is still close I feel pretty confident that I've got the winner. If the pace is wrong, at any call, then more often than not, the race is over.

Sumpin like that for me, as well....

[Norm]

I tend to generally agree with the majority. As a sprint specialist, I usually know before the 1/2 mile pole, (sometimes at the 5/8th) if I'm on a loser. If I'm still on or near the lead at the 1/2 mile pole, I have to wait 'til the 3/16 pole to see what he's got. If he pulls away then, I'm a winner. If he is still battling, it's time to shout at him, (it's a well known fact that even if you're watching on the TV, a horse will run faster when you shout at him). If his head pops up at the 3/16th and he shortens stride, then it's time to start saying unkind things about his ancestors (and his trainer for not having him ready.)

[Fingal]

Watch a jock's hands. Usually I can tell before they enter the far turn if they have position & are starting to build up momentum. If a horse can cruise into the turn without being asked, you're looking at a ton of horse & when they straighten out for the stretch drive, they'll usually start to pull away. But if at that point if they cant quicken, you're looking at a dog. And if the jock has to bring out the whip before the stretch turn, you're cooked even if they're in front. Odds are they're going to spit the bit & start breathing fire.